SOLARIS activity report

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Presentation transcript:

SOLARIS activity report 2009 SPARC SSG meeting in Kyoto SOLARIS activity report K. Kodera and K. Matthes i) CCMval 2: Solar response ii) Next Solaris meeting

Solar Max –Min heating rate change (Off line) solar irradiance solar induced ozone Total change

solar regression coefficients Temperature (C) Ozone (%) 0.1 1 Obs Obs 10 100 0.5 1 5 0.1 1 10 100 0.5 1 5

Ozone (%) Temp. (C) Ozone at 3hPa Temperature at 1 hPa Figure 8.5.4: Amplitude of the solar cycle in the upper stratosphere over latitude for ozone at 3 hPa (top) and temperature at 1 hPa (bottom).

Where comes from the problems Problems of the observational data Long data: inhomogeneous Short data: instable Problems of the models Planetary waves propagate too easily toward the equator. Problems of the method of analysis (multiple regression) Correlation between the forcings (SST, QBO contains decadal variation) Problems of the winter stratosphere (highly non-linear) Response depends on the basic state interaction between the forcings Solar x QBO, Solar x Trend ENSO x Trend, QBO x Trend

Linear Forcing a Response 1 Forcing b Response 2 Nonlinear Response 1 Forcing a Response 2 Forcing b

Correlation: geopotential height with Nino 3.4 (DJF) 1950-1978 1979-2007

Problems of the method of analysis (multiple regression) Problems of the models Problems of the method of analysis (multiple regression) Correlation between the forcings (SST, QBO contains decadal variation) Proposed solar experiment -> No correlation among the forcings

Next Solaris meeting GFZ German Research Centre Mid-March (10-12 March?) 2010 GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences Potsdam, Germany local organizer: Katja Mattes

1 1 10 10 solar regression coefficients Temperature Ozone Figure 8.4.2: Annual mean tropical (25°S-25°N) solar regression coefficients for (a)temperature in Kelvin per 100 units of the F10.7cm radio flux, and (b) ozone in %/100 F10.7cm units from CCMVal-2 CCMs (1960-2004) and observations (NIWA ozone (1979-2004), Randel and Wu ozone (1979-2005), RICH radiosonde data (1960-2004), SSU data (1979-2005), and ERA40 (1979-2001)) from 100 to 0.1 hPa. Top: CCMs without imposed solar cycle (non-sc group), bottom: CCMs with imposed solar cycle (sc group).