Commission of the UE Genedec project (FP6-502184) Rural Development Policy: Possible Impact on Agricultural Productivity in Old and New Member States Commission of the UE Genedec project (FP6-502184) Elisa Montresor Univeristy of Verona – Italy Francesco Pecci University of Verona - Italy Maria Sassi University of Pavia - Italy

Importance of the analysis Fostering and enabling policy and institutional environment Encouraging agricultural productivity and competitiveness Rural Development Policy (2007-13) Strategic priorities Encouraging non-farm growth activity Improving social well-being, gender equity, managing risk, reducing vulnerability The rural development policy for the programming period 2007-2013 has stated five strategic priorities: Encouraging sustainable management of natural resources

Importance of the analysis Relationship between local agricultural systems and local socio-economic systems The analysis of the territorial systems Impact of decoupling on agriculture considering the interactions between agricultural and socio-economic variables The Rural Development Policy, Modulation and Cross-compliance Impact of decoupling and policy sensitive socio-economic variables on agriculture productivity From the agricultural point of view this rises at least two isuues Importance for the EU-15 and New Member Stats

socio-economic variables on agriculture productivity Impact of decoupling and policy sensitive socio-economic variables on agriculture productivity Intensity of the impact 1. Importance of the analysis Decoupling affects agricultural and socio-economic systems only in relatively restricted areas The analysis of the territorial systems

socio-economic variables on agriculture productivity Impact of decoupling and policy sensitive socio-economic variables on agriculture productivity Intensity of the impact 1. Importance of the analysis Territorial interventions to promote local factors for agricultural development The analysis of the territorial systems Stationary and non-stationary parameters

socio-economic variables on agriculture productivity Impact of decoupling and policy sensitive socio-economic variables on agriculture productivity Intensity of the impact 1. Importance of the analysis Non-stationary parameters Insights for territorial and decentralised intervention policymaking Stationary and non-stationary parameters Groups of homogeneous regions

The CAP regionalization? Impact of decoupling and policy sensitive socio-economic variables on agriculture productivity Intensity of the impact 1. Importance of the analysis 2. Object of the analysis The CAP regionalization? Object of the analysis Stationary and non-stationary parameters Groups of homogeneous regions

Data processing chain Initial data set AIC minimization Indicators 1. Importance of the analysis Initial data set 2. Object of the analysis 3. Data processing chain AIC minimization Indicators for GWRs Stationary parameters Non-stationary parameters Kohonen SOM classification Regionalization results

Indicators: analytical framework 1. Importance of the analysis Common 2. Object of the analysis Environmental, food safety and animal welfare standards Cross-compliance and good practices 3. Data processing chain - Competitiveness - Environment and Country side - Quality of life and Diversification of Rural areas 4. Indicators: analytical framework - Competitiveness - Multifunctionality - Sustainability Farmers: free to produce what the market needs Rural development Consumers Taxpayers Decoupling Single farm payments Modulation Agricultural Policy Subsidies

Agricultural productivity Indicators 1. Importance of the analysis 164 regions EU-15 205 regions EU-25 2. Object of the analysis Demographic features EU-15 Subsidies Innovation and diversification 3. Data processing chain 4. Indicators Agricultural productivity Socio-economic context Efficiency and competitiveness Environmental sustainability

Results: Non-stationary parameters 1. Importance of the analysis The variables affecting only locally the agricultural productivity are not only subsidies but also agricultural and socio-economic variables 2. Object of the analysis 3. Data processing chain 4. Indicators Farms and farmers structure; Agricultural innovation Employment and Human capital quality in rural areas 5. Results: Non-stationary parameters Overall Economic development, Innovation, Labour market Demographic features + Agricultural diversification Local attraction capacity

Results: Cluster analysis EU-15 Cluster 1 (48) – Total subsidies and the socio-economic context 1. Importance of the analysis Cluster 2 (38) – Total subsidies and the rural context 2. Object of the analysis 3. Data processing chain Cluster 4 (17) – Agricultural context and labour market Cluster 3 (17) – Innovation, human capital and regional welfare 4. Indicators 5. Results: Non-stationary parameters Cluster 6 (17) – Total subsidies, livestock intensity and socio-economic welfare 5.1. Results: Cluster analysis EU-15 Cluster 5 (24) – Agricultural and rural features

Results: Cluster analysis EU-25 1. Importance of the analysis Cluster 5 (31) – Agricultural structure, rural features and territorial attraction capacity Cluster 1 (42) – Farmers age structure, quality of human capital in rural areas and economic context 2. Object of the analysis 3. Data processing chain Cluster 4 (17) – Territorial attraction capacity and human capital 4. Indicators 5. Results: Non-stationary parameters Cluster 3 (42) – Agricultural diversification and socio-economic context 5.1. Results: Cluster analysis EU-15 Cluster 6 (36) – Agricultural vitality and sustainability and socio-economic context 5.2. Results: Cluster analysis EU-25 Cluster 2 (37) – Agricultural diversification and human capital

Results: maps comparison 1. Importance of the analysis EU-15 EU-25 2. Object of the analysis 3. Data processing chain 4. Indicators 5. Results: Non-stationary parameters 5.1. Results: Cluster analysis EU-15 5.2. Results: Cluster analysis EU-25 5.3. Results: maps comparison

Conclusions 1. The variables affecting only locally the agricultural EU-15 EU-25 1. Importance of the analysis 1. The variables affecting only locally the agricultural productivity are not only subsidies but also agricultural and socio-economic variables 2. Object of the analysis 3. Data processing chain 4. indicators 2. Spatial coherence among groups of regions sharing geographic borders and sometime coincident with the reference State borders 5. Results: Non-stationary parameters 5.1. Results: Cluster analysis EU-15 3. A great diversity exists between clusters in terms of profile 5.2. Results: Cluster analysis EU-25 5.3. Results: maps comparison 4. Regionalization: Integrated and multi-sector policy for agricultural development at the Regional and State level. 6. Conclusions

Results: Non-stationary parameters EU-15 EU-25 1. Importance of the analysis Total subsidies Farmers age structure <35/>55 Farm size structure <50UAA/>5UAA Cow+beef/UAA IPC agric./IPC total Employment in rural areas Life-long learning in rural areas GDP PPS per capita Employment rate High and medium high tec. manuf. (% employment) Population density Ageing Farmers age structure <35/>55 Farmers with other gainful activities Life-long learning in rural areas Tourism infrastructures in rural areas Employment in public sector/total employment Net migration rate GDP PPS per capita Unemployment rate Students ISCED levels 5 and 6 on total students High and medium high tec. manuf. (% employment) 2. Object of the analysis 3. Data processing chain 4. Data set 5. Results: Non-stationary parameters