Pre-Submission Seminar / Final Review Alex Burns (Alexander.Burns@monash.edu) 14th November 2018 PhD Candidate, School of Politics & Social Inquiry, Monash University

Changes Since Mid-Candidature Review Focus on single case study: Japan’s religious cult and terrorist organisation Aum Shinrikyo (omitted draft material on Islamic State) Respond to recent methodological advances in process tracing (looked at Bayesian and set-theoretic roots – considered ‘out of scope’ for PhD project) Shift from strategic studies / terrorism studies sub-field synthesis to also consider relevant insights from political economy (macrofoundations) and political psychology (microfoundations) Draft manuscript of 150 pages (43,848 words as of 14th November 2018) Working notes material (270 handwritten pages from 2011-13, and 590 pages or 255,552 words from 2014-18). 22nd July 2019 planned submission of final draft for review

Strategic Culture Defined: Jack Snyder Formulated in 1977 by Jack Snyder for a RAND monograph on Ford and Carter administration détente and the Soviet Union “Individuals are socialized into a distinctly Soviet mode of thinking . . . a set of general beliefs, attitudes and behavioral patterns . . . that places them on the level of “culture” rather than mere “policy” . . .” [emphasis added] (Snyder 1977: v) “Culture is perpetuated not only by individuals but also by organizations.” (Snyder 1977: 9). “Strategic subculture: . . . a subsection of the broader strategic community . . . Reasonably distinct beliefs and attitudes.” (Snyder 1977: 10).

Conceptualising Fourth Generation Strategic Culture Reflects a possible multipolar world in which there are shifts in great power hierarchies / ‘rising’ powers (T.V. Paul, Jonathon Renshon, David M. Edelstein) Sub-field basis in national security context: problem / threat emphasis Sub-field links to terrorism studies research on terrorist organisations (Martha Crenshaw, Jacob N. Shapiro, Jessica Stern, Mark Juergensmeyer, David C. Rapoport) Stronger links to understanding nuclear proliferation networks and regional nuclear powers (Vipin Narang, Alexandre Debs, Nuno P. Monteiro, Scott Sagan) Understanding ‘red team’ theories of victory in nuclear blackmail and possible ‘limited’ nuclear war: Russia, China, Pakistan, India, North Korea (Brad Roberts) Different policy instruments: economic statecraft (David Baldwin), coercive diplomacy (Todd S. Sechser, Matthew Fuhrmann), extended nuclear deterrence (Andrew O’Neil)

Strategic Subcultures in Terrorist Organisations New conceptual theory to integrate insights from first generation strategic culture (Jack Snyder’s original RAND paper), terrorist organisations (David C. Rapoport, Jacob N. Shapiro), and the study of religiously motivated terrorism (Mark Juergensmeyer) Contrasts with rational choice theory explanations (Martha Crenshaw) Elite framework for understanding terrorist organisation leadership Shift from political, religious, and philosophical ideas to moral calculus of violence (William T. Vollmann) as choice preference, and then to organisational capabilities Emphasis on the cultivation and mobilisation of counter-power ‘Strong form’ are terrorist organisations that have ‘quasi-state’ status (Hamas, Hezbollah, perhaps Islamic State at its operational peak) ‘Weak form’ are terrorist organisations that develop a subculture but that are unable to survive in the long-term or who experience disruptions (e.g. leadership decapitation)

Research Methodology Small-N case study using “heuristic” approach: existing literature versus strategic subculture explanations (George & Bennett 2005). Selection of deviant and extreme case (Gerring 2012): Japan’s religious cult and terrorist organisation Aum Shinrikyo. Process tracing that identifies the causal mechanisms and processes that link X1 (terrorist organisation exists and rapidly grows) and Y1 outcome (survival over a significant time period and carries out successful terrorist campaigns) (George & Bennett 2005; Beach & Pedersen 2013; Bennett & Checkel 2015). Also combine facets of event studies (insights from past published research) and counterfactuals (Lebow 2010, Burns 2011) in Chapter 5 on Aum Shinrikyo’s Shambhala Plan. Focus on three posited causal mechanisms: (1) cultural transmission, (2) social learning, and (3) folklore.

Aum Shinrikyo Founded in 1984 as a small yoga group Founder: Shoko Asahara (Chizuo Matsumoto) Developed a synthesis of religious beliefs Hindu deity worship (Shiva) Tibetan Buddhist Vajrayana (esoteric practices) Evangelical Christianity (End Times apocalypse) Occult milieu (Nostradamus) Innovation (Perfect Salvation Initiation 20th March 1995: sarin gas attack on Tokyo subway 13 people killed 6000 people injured Long-term psycho-social effects in Japanese society Transformed from religious cult to religiously motivated terrorist organisation

Aum’s Pathway to Violence Aum’s goal of recruiting 30,000 renunciates (very ambitious, led to Korea and Russia members) Early, optimistic period became more pessimistic (Ian Reader, 2000): parallels to Bhagwan Rajneesh (Netflix 2018 documentary Wild, Wild Country) Failed ‘populism’ of Asahara as candidate in 1990-91 political campaign for the Japanese Diet Asahara’s interest in conspiracy theories (priming) Chemical and Biological Weapons experimentation Pathway to violence: Matsumoto (June 1994) and Tokyo (March 1995) when other options were exhausted

Macrofoundations: Japan’s ‘Lost Decades’ Economic bubble in 1980s Aum’s early goal: recruit 30,000 renunciates Shambhala Plan: global, utopian spiritual community Aum viewed as a safe haven Deflationary stagnation Debt austerity Psycho-social stressors: background of renunciates (noted in Haruki Marukami’s Underground interviews) Aum became a psychic prison

Mesofoundations: Indoctrinability Susceptibility or vulnerability to coercion, manipulation, or persusasion Indoctrination into a particular political, religious, or philosophical belief system Deals with the belief adoption process of a worldview or values Explains Robert Jay Lifton’s observation (2000) of ‘cloning the guru’ practice in Aum Anthony Stevens & John Price’s evolutionary psychiatry analysis of cultic groups (2000) Marco Del Giudice’s research in evolutionary psychiatry (2018) may update Lifton’s insights Neo-Darwinian competition for members between different Japanese new religions: dominance-submission, rank-ordered groups

Microfoundations: Rent-Seeking and Wealth Extraction Renunciate were a low-cost labour pool Worked in construction, anime production, publishing (infrastructure, media capabilities) Forerunner of anthropologist David Graeber’s recent study Bullshit Jobs: A Theory (2018) Teacher-Student relationship in Tibetan Buddhist Vajrayana (Chogyam Trungpa) Different experiences in Haruki Murakami’s Underground (2001) about “the place that was promised” Aum as rent-seeking and wealth extraction entity for the primary benefit of senior leadership (elite model) Aum in the context of Japanese communitarian capitalism and Western neoliberal capitalism

Case Study Lessons 1 Aum Shinrikyo transformed from a guru-led religious cult to a religiously motivated terrorist organisation Political economy (macrofoundations) are important to understand the structural forces and the socio-economic context Indoctrinability can help to understand other political, religious, and philosophical groups Broader generalisability beyond terrorism studies Japanese Government execution of Asahara and other Aum members (6th and 26th July 2018)

Case Study Lessons 2 Aum Shinrikyo a ‘failed’ case of developing a strategic subculture Asahara’s goal of recruiting 30,000 renunciates failed Senior leadership lacked the scientific knowledge for Chemical and Biological Weapons Attempts to acquire radiological / nuclear weapons from Russia failed Fascination with anime / manga media imagery (proxy for folklore) Aum Shinrikyo had a compartmentalised organisational structure Senior leadership were unaware of Japan’s ‘continuity of government’ capabilities Most renunciates were unaware of senior leadership’s CBW program Renunciates experiences escalated commitment (low-cost labour force) and rent-seeking / wealth extraction that flowed to senior leadership (noted by Stevens & Price 2000) Insights for further developing a conceptual theory of strategic subcultures Asahara was motivated by Hindu and Tibetan Buddhist Vajrayana ideas Initiatory / religious sub-system in Aum Shinrikyo was important for renunciates Potential elite capture (by ideas) of senior leadership in an organisation

Discussion