The Lancet Countdown on health benefits from the UK Climate Change Act: a modelling study for Great Britain Prof Martin L Williams, PhD, Melissa C Lott,

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The Lancet Countdown on health benefits from the UK Climate Change Act: a modelling study for Great Britain Prof Martin L Williams, PhD, Melissa C Lott, PhD, Nutthida Kitwiroon, PhD, David Dajnak, PhD, Heather Walton, DPhil, Mike Holland, PhD, Steve Pye, MS, Daniela Fecht, PhD, Mireille B Toledano, PhD, Sean D Beevers, PhD The Lancet Planetary Health Volume 2, Issue 5, Pages e202-e213 (May 2018) DOI: 10.1016/S2542-5196(18)30067-6 Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license Terms and Conditions

Figure 1 Primary energy consumption in the four scenarios in 2050 Only the low-greenhouse gas and nuclear power scenarios met the UK's Climate Change Act target. The Lancet Planetary Health 2018 2, e202-e213DOI: (10.1016/S2542-5196(18)30067-6) Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license Terms and Conditions

Figure 2 Predicted hourly NO2 concentrations over the sites in Great Britain at 10 km spatial scale Data are mean. NO2=nitrogen dioxide. The Lancet Planetary Health 2018 2, e202-e213DOI: (10.1016/S2542-5196(18)30067-6) Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license Terms and Conditions

Figure 3 Annual PM2·5 and primary PM2·5 concentrations in Great Britain at 10 km resolution in the different scenarios Data are mean, estimated by the summation of elemental carbon and organic aerosol. PM2·5 concentrations for (A) 2011, (B) 2035 nuclear power scenario, (C) 2050 nuclear power scenario, and elemental carbon and organic aerosol data for (D) 2011, (E) 2035 nuclear power scenario, and (F) 2050 nuclear power scenario. The Lancet Planetary Health 2018 2, e202-e213DOI: (10.1016/S2542-5196(18)30067-6) Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license Terms and Conditions

Figure 4 Changes in life-years due to NO2 concentrations in low-greenhouse gas and nuclear power scenarios We used 10 km rural per 2 km urban modelling, with relative risk 1·017 per 10 μg/m3, US Environmental Protection Agency lag, and Office for National Statistics birth and mortality projections. Negative life-years lost represents a decreased impact—ie, life-years gained. Ranges based on the confidence intervals around the concentration-response function recommended by the Committee on the Medical Effects of Air Pollutants in 2015,6 varied from 1·5 times the central estimate to 40% of it, and the ranges overlap to some extent between the two scenarios for most of the time period. NO2=nitrogen dioxide. The Lancet Planetary Health 2018 2, e202-e213DOI: (10.1016/S2542-5196(18)30067-6) Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license Terms and Conditions

Figure 5 Changes in life-years due to anthropogenic PM2·5 concentrations in the low-greenhouse gas and nuclear power scenarios We used 10 km rural per 2 km urban modelling, with relative risk 1·06 per 10 μg/m3; US Environmental Protection Agency lag, and Office for National Statistics birth and mortality rate projections. Ranges based on plausibility intervals from the Committee on the Medical Effects of Air Pollutants in 2010,23 covering more than just statistical uncertainty, varied from twice the central estimate to a sixth of it, and the ranges overlap between the two scenarios. The Lancet Planetary Health 2018 2, e202-e213DOI: (10.1016/S2542-5196(18)30067-6) Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license Terms and Conditions

Figure 6 Distribution of ward 2011 level NO2 concentrations in Great Britain We used Carstairs 2011 deprivation quintile at 2011 baseline and under the different scenarios. NO2=nitrogen dioxide. 1=least deprived. 5=most deprived. The Lancet Planetary Health 2018 2, e202-e213DOI: (10.1016/S2542-5196(18)30067-6) Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license Terms and Conditions