Robert David Steele OSS.NET 3 March 2003 Miami, Florida Strategic Threat Assessment: A Regional Approach to Intelligence, Force Structure, & Combined Operations Robert David Steele OSS.NET 3 March 2003 Miami, Florida Estimados compadres, estare hablando en terminos acceptables a nuestros patrones norte americanos, pero les aviso que mis raices a lado de mi madre quedan bien enplatados en Colombia con origen en Barcelona durante el siglo 17. Cuenten conmigo si les puedo ayudar en el futuro. Nosotros, los gringos, no pueden resuelvar sus dificultades internas. Podemos ayudar--y podemos complicar. Nosotors mismos somos causas de instabilidad, y esto lo siento. Al fin y al cabo, ustedes son los que dominan sus tierras propias, y mi presentation esta orientado a ustedes los jefes de Latin America, con la esperanza de que pueden reducir su dependencia en ayuda norte americana, y aumentar su poder regional.

Gorillas Can Be Difficult We are sensitive to your concerns about US unilateralism We need your expertise and investments as much as you need ours Security cooperation today is more complex, non-traditional The purpose of this briefing is to emphasize that we face common challenges--global threats to local security and prosperity in the Americas--and that the best hope for Latin America lies in its own strengthening of the OAS of its own regional capabilities. Sometimes we ourselves, the North Americans, create problems for others and problems for ourselves. Security cooperation today is more complex, and this briefing will emphasize my two personal views: first, that Latin America can and should become a more powerful “bloc” able to deal with the US, Europe, and Asia on equal terms; and second, that multilateral intelligence and multilateral operations must become a reality.

Conflict Facts for 2002 23 LIC+, 79 LIC-, 175 VPC This is the world of conflict today. Most of this conflict is not traditional military conflict as we know it, and for which we have very expensive forces at the ready. Of the many conflicts depicted here, Latin America has 1 of 23 severe low intensity conflicts, 9 of 78 low intensity conflicts, and 28 of 178 violent political conflicts. This comprises 15% of the global threat, but I suspect that the US does not apply 15% of its national security funding to this most important region. Part of our task is to show US policymakers that we must invest more in Latin American intelligence and operational security. However, although we have an interest, the primary responsibility for resolution of instability in Latin America will always lies with Latin Americans, and this briefing is so oriented. Source: PIOOM (NL), data with permission © 2002 A. Jongman

Global Threats to U.S. Security Complex Emergencies 32 Countries Refugees/Displaced 66 Countries Food Security 33 Countries Child Soldiers 41 Countries Modern Plagues* 59 Countries & Rising Water Scarcity & Contaminated Water** Ethnic Conflict 18 Genocides Today** Resource Wars, Energy Waste & Pollution** Corruption Common 80 Countries Censorship Very High 62 Countries Although Latin America is vastly better off than Africa or the Middle East, 8 of its countries have significant displaced populations, 3 have sustained conditions of famines, and 1 is considered a complex emergency. More subtly, there are 11 genocide campaign areas that are dormant, but with flashpoints in three countries. Corruption and censorship as well as torture complicate civil relations. Water scarcity in the south and resource conflict in the north are routine. *State of the World Atlas (1997), ** Marq de Villier (Water), John Heidenrich and Greg Stanton (Genocide), Michael Klare et al (Resources), all others from PIOOM Map 2002

World War III Players Nation-States Companies & NGOs Bacteria/ Environment Although Latin America is more stable than some less fortunate areas of the world, this area faces five distinct threats that neither the US government nor any Latin American government are truly organized to confront in a coherent and sustainable manner. Medical failures are going to haunt the region in the coming decade, together with crime, famine and instability resulting from poverty and migration. Continued tax avoidance and active fraud by both US and indigenous corporations will continue to reduce government revenues. Finally, super-empowered angry individuals--and money and objects such as weapons--will be difficult to identify and track. Money, Objects, Individuals Gangs & Mobs

US Incentives for Listening Red Arrows --mass exodus to US/EU/RU Black Stars--plagues that travel Blue Crosses-- investment barrier In this light, I believe that Latin American countries have every right to articulate to the North--and the North has every reason to listen to--specific intelligence justifying a considerable increase in Northern investment in Southern stability. This is especially the case for soft power investments including increased diplomatic, trade, and peace corps representatives, increased economic and educational assistance, new forms of cultural and law enforcement outreach, and new solutions for water, energy, and pollution challenges. None of these is subject to traditional military power--but a combined regional force with teeth can apply soft power well.

Special Challenges Cultural & Historical Intelligence Economic (Trade) Security Intelligence Environmental Security Intelligence Financial (Money) Security Intelligence Medical Security Intelligence National Security Intelligence Acquisition, Concepts, Force Structure Among the areas where I believe that the global intelligence community--and the US and Latin American intelligence elements in particular--have failed to invest sufficient attention and resources, are these, in alphabetical order. Cultural & historical intelligence; economic or trade intelligence, including the detection of import & export price fraud; environmental security intelligence; money laundering and terrorist or criminal funding intelligence; medical intelligence; and--a very strategic failure--intelligence relevant to determining what military or other stability force packages are funded and maintained.

New Craft of Intelligence Lessons of History II Global Coverage III National Intelligence IV Spies & Secrecy China, Islam, Ethnic, Etc. Cost-Sharing with Others-- Shared Early Warning Narrowly focused! Harness distributed intelligence of Nation Here I illustrate the four major aspects of the new craft of intelligence, which is the topic of my second book in a series of ten books on intelligence. With this illustration I wish to make a critical point to all of our allies: we cannot succeed with you. While some may differ with the common characterization of all US officials in Latin America as “tontos utiles,” I personally think there is enough to that phrase to warrant concern and correction. We cannot master Latin American history without you. We cannot collect, translate, and digitize all Latin American publications without you. We cannot harness the distributed local knowledge, without you. We cannot be effective at spying on Latin American terrorists and criminal gangs, without you. We must go forward together.

Seven Intelligence “Tribes” The Way Ahead Military Law Enforcement Business Academic National NGO & Media Religions & Clans I must stress in the most forceful terms that improved cooperation at the national level will not be sufficient for our joint success against the forces of instability and disruption. There are in fact seven intelligence tribes within each nation, and we must bring these tribes together, both within each nation, and regionally. Apart from the national and military intelligence tribes that are well known to us, we must develop and integrate the business security and intelligence tribe, the academic intelligence tribe, the nongovernmental organization and media tribe, and finally, the religious and ethnic intelligence tribes whose capabilities must be integrated in support of larger national purposes, and not be allowed to undermine national sovereignty.

Creating the World Brain Web-Based Virtual Intelligence Teams OPG VPN Weekly Review Expert Forum Distance Learning Virtual Library Shared Calendar Virtual Budget Shared 24/7 Plot Shared Rolodex In my view there are three levels of improved intelligence collaboration that are made possible by the Internet. The first level is strictly overt and serves to bring together, at almost no cost, experts from the seven tribes, either within a specific country, or internationally. The second level is for official use only, and brings together a sub-set of trusted experts from multiple countries, including official national, military, and law enforcement intelligence representatives. This level is action-oriented and operational. The third level, possible at the Top Secret level with the correct national encryption programs, has not been implemented, but could be. This could include shared database access.

Regional Intelligence Center OSINT HUMINT IMINT SIGINT Deputy for Collection Country B Digitization Translation Visualization Analytic Support Deputy for Processing Country C Warning Estimative Countries Issues Deputy for Analysis Country D Chief of Center Country A Deputy for Counterintelligence Country E Deputy for Covert Action Country F Beyond improved cooperation in sharing weekly open source intelligence, virtual libraries, distance learning, and expert forums, I believe that the US Government can and should fund an experimental regional intelligence center that integrates collection, processing, and analysis for a few target areas of special concern to all of us. The terrorist, criminal, medical, and environmental targets all come to mind as worthy of attention in this new collaborative enterprise. Although Latin Americans should dominate such an activity, it makes sense to combine US funds with Latin American knowledge and access, for our common good.

Regional Agile Forces for Peace OAS CTF Strategists Advise Policy Constabulary Stabilize Failed Areas Domestic Threats Water, Food, Health Citizen Education Regional Network Force on Force Train & Fight Electronic Security Set Standards, Stand Watch Small Wars Control Territory Ground Truth Observe with Warrior’s Eyes Finally, and I am writing my third book on this topic--I mention this because I hope some of you might be willing todiscuss your ideas with me--there is the matter of how we train, equip, and organize our respective forces. In my view, if the new approach to intelligence that I envision is successful, it will help persuade our policymakers that the Organization of American States needs a new force structure, something along these lines, and that the OAS should strive to not only establish coalition forces for each of these eight categories, but that it should create new forms of collaborative command and control that allow for the integration of non-military organizations using existing civilian Internet and communications channels.

Contact Information Robert David Steele OSS.NET POB 369 Oakton, VA 22124 Email: bear@oss.net Voice: (703) 242-1700 Fax: (703) 242-1711 Web: www.oss.net The intelligence structures, and the operational structures, that we have all inherited are Cold War traditional structures. They do not offer the flexibility and diversity that is needed to address non-state and non-traditional threats. However, the military, both in the US and in other countries, remains the one truly reliable disciplined body that can be used to develop new concepts, new doctrines, new force structures. I have faith in the Latin American military and in the US military, and therefore I hope that my ideas might inspire all of you to devise new forms of intelligence collaboration and new forms of operational engagement.