Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting in Tropical Cyclones

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Report of the Q2 Short Range QPF Discussion Group Jon Ahlquist Curtis Marshall John McGinley - lead Dan Petersen D. J. Seo Jean Vieux.

Advertisements

TRMM Tropical Rainfall Measurement (Mission). Why TRMM? n Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) is a joint US-Japan study initiated in 1997 to study.

Assessment of Tropical Rainfall Potential (TRaP) forecasts during the Australian tropical cyclone season Beth Ebert BMRC, Melbourne, Australia.

Progress in Developing Coupled Tropical Cyclone-Wave-Ocean Models for Operational Implementations at NOAA and Navy Isaac Ginis Morris Bender, Tetsu Hara,

FORECAST PERFORMANCE OF AN OPERATIONAL MESO-GAMMA-SCALE MODELLING SYSTEM FOR EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEMS Anthony P. Praino, Lloyd A. Treinish IBM Thomas J. Watson.

The Contribution of Eastern North Pacific Tropical Cyclones to the Warm Season Rainfall Climatology of the Southwest US Kristen L. Corbosiero (UCLA) Michael.

CORP Symposium Fort Collins, CO August 16, 2006 Session 3: NPOESS AND GOES-R Applications Tropical Cyclone Applications Ray Zehr, NESDIS / RAMM.

Three-Dimensional Precipitation Structure of Tropical Cyclones AMS Hurricane and Tropical Meteorology Conference May 2nd, 2008 Deanna A. Hence and Robert.

The Relative Contribution of Atmospheric and Oceanic Uncertainty in TC Intensity Forecasts Ryan D. Torn University at Albany, SUNY World Weather Open Science.

Use of TRMM for Analysis of Extreme Precipitation Events Largest Land Daily Rainfall (mm/day)

Observational and Modeling Study of Hurricane Rainbands and Intensity Changes aka Rainband and Intensity Change Experiment “RAINEX” Shuyi S. Chen and Robert.

Convective-scale diagnostics Rob Rogers NOAA/AOML Hurricane Research Division.

2-5 Mar, 2015IHC1 Sensitivity of Ocean Sampling for Coupled COAMPS-TC Prediction Sue Chen 1, James Cummings 2, Jerome Schmidt 1, Peter Black 2, Elizabeth.

Some Preliminary Modeling Results on the Upper-Level Outflow of Hurricane Sandy (2012) JungHoon Shin and Da-Lin Zhang Department of Atmospheric & Oceanic.

Evaluation of Potential Impacts of Doppler Lidar Wind Measurements on High-impact Weather Forecasting: A Regional OSSE Study Zhaoxia Pu and Lei Zhang University.

ATMS 373C.C. Hennon, UNC Asheville Observing the Tropics.

Vortex Rossby Waves in Hurricanes Katrina and Rita (2005) Falko Judt and Shuyi S. Chen Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University.

Observing Strategy and Observation Targeting for Tropical Cyclones Using Ensemble-Based Sensitivity Analysis and Data Assimilation Chen, Deng-Shun 3 Dec,

Improvements in Deterministic and Probabilistic Tropical Cyclone Wind Predictions: A Joint Hurricane Testbed Project Update Mark DeMaria and Ray Zehr NOAA/NESDIS/ORA,

Improvements in Deterministic and Probabilistic Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Predictions Joint Hurricane Testbed Project Status Report Mark DeMaria NOAA/NESDIS/ORA,

Current status of AMSR-E data utilization in JMA/NWP Masahiro KAZUMORI Numerical Prediction Division Japan Meteorological Agency July 2008 Joint.

Topic 1.5 Numerical Model Guidance IWTC-V (Cairns, Australia, 2002) Shuyi S. Chen 1 and Naomi Surgi 2 1 University of Miami/RSMAS (USA) 2 NOAA/NCEP/EMC.

Large Ensemble Tropical Cyclone Forecasting K. Emanuel 1 and Ross N. Hoffman 2, S. Hopsch 2, D. Gombos 2, and T. Nehrkorn 2 1 Massachusetts Institute of.

Measuring gaps in tropical cyclone rainbands using Level II radar reflectivity data Corene Matyas Department of Geography, University of Florida Funding:

Hurricane structure and intensity change : Effects of wind shear and Air-Sea Interaction M é licie Desflots Rosenstiel School of Marine & Atmospheric Science.

Richard Rotunno NCAR *Based on:

Improving SHIPS Rapid Intensification (RI) Index Using 37 GHz Microwave Ring Pattern around the Center of Tropical Cyclones 65 th Interdepartmental Hurricane.

Ligia Bernardet 1*, E. Uhlhorn 2, S. Bao 1* & J. Cione 2 1 NOAA ESRL Global Systems Division, Boulder CO 2 NOAA AOML Hurricane Research Division, Miami.

Shuyi S. Chen Joseph Tenerelli, Wei Zhao, Mark Donelan Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science University of Miami Coupled Atmosphere-Wave-Ocean.

2/10/03F.Marks1 Development of a Tropical Cyclone Rain Forecasting Tool Frank D. Marks NOAA/AOML, Hurricane Research Division, Miami, FL QPE Techniques.

Revisiting estimation of TC winds from IR Imagery.

Shuyi S. Chen Joseph Tenerelli Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science University of Miami Effects of Environmental Flow and Initial Vortex.

High-Resolution Simulation of Hurricane Bonnie (1998). Part II: Water Budget SCOTT A. BRAUN J. Atmos. Sci., 63,

1 Tropical Cloud Systems and Processes (TCSP) Experiment Science Team 25 Principal Investigators from 5 NASA centers, 10 universities, 2 other government.

Improved Statistical Intensity Forecast Models: A Joint Hurricane Testbed Year 2 Project Update Mark DeMaria, NOAA/NESDIS, Fort Collins, CO John A. Knaff,

DIRECT READOUT APPLICATIONS USING ATOVS ANTHONY L. REALE NOAA/NESDIS OFFICE OF RESEARCH AND APPLICATIONS.

Doppler Lidar Winds & Tropical Cyclones Frank D. Marks AOML/Hurricane Research Division 7 February 2007.

Shuyi S. Chen Rosenstial School of Marine and Atmospheric Science University of Miami (DRAFT only!!! Improving Hurricane Structure and Intensity Forecast:

Description of the IRI Experimental Seasonal Typhoon Activity Forecasts Suzana J. Camargo, Anthony G. Barnston and Stephen E.Zebiak.

Forecasting Oceanic Cyclones at the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center Joseph M. Sienkiewicz, D. Scott Prosise, and Anthony Crutch NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Ocean Prediction.

1 Current and planned research with data collected during the IFEX/RAINEX missions Robert Rogers NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division.

Objective and Automated Assessment of Operational Global Forecast Model Predictions of Tropical Cyclone Formation Patrick A. Harr Naval Postgraduate School.

Improving the Validation and Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Robert Rogers NOAA/AOML/HRD Tim Marchok NOAA/GFDL Bob Tuleya NCEP/EMC/SAIC Funded.

INNER CORE STRUCTURE AND INTENSITY CHANGE IN HURRICANE ISABEL (2003) Shuyi S. Chen and Peter J. Kozich RSMAS/University of Miami J. Gamache, P. Dodge,

Shuyi S. Chen Rosenstial School of Marine and Atmospheric Science University of Miami Overview of RAINEX Modeling of 2005 Hurricanes In the eye of Katrina.

2. WRF model configuration and initial conditions  Three sets of initial and lateral boundary conditions for Katrina are used, including the output from.

Shuyi S. Chen, Robert A. Houze Bradley Smull, David Nolan, Wen-Chau Lee Frank Marks, and Robert Rogers Observational and Modeling Study of Hurricane Rainbands.

Andrea Schumacher1, M. DeMaria2, and R. DeMaria1

Kerry Emanuel Lorenz Center Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Evolution of Hurricane Isabel’s (2003) Vortex Structure and Intensity

Rosenstial School of Marine and Atmospheric Science

Predictability of Tropical Cyclone Intensity

Tech to Tech Odyssey of a kid from Brooklyn Tech to Florida Tech

Derek Ortt1 and Shuyi S. Chen, RSMAS/University of Miami

NOAA Intensity Forecasting Experiment (IFEX)

High Resolution Simulations of Floyd (1999): Structural Evolution and Responsible Mechanisms for the Heavy Rainfall over the Northeast U.S.   

Sea State Influence on SFMR Wind Speed Retrievals in Tropical Cyclones

Shuyi S. Chen, Ben Barr, Milan Curcic and Brandon Kerns

Coupled Atmosphere-Wave-Ocean Modeling

Hui Liu, Jeff Anderson, and Bill Kuo

The Impact of TY Sinlaku on the Northern Hemisphere Midlatitudes During T-PARC Elizabeth Sanabia & Patrick Harr Naval Postgraduate School Acknowledgments:

Coupled Atmosphere-Wave-Ocean Modeling Experiments in Hurricanes

Storm Surge Modeling and Forecasting

SWFDP Key Issues for GIFS-TIGGE

Verification of Tropical Cyclone Forecasts

Tong Zhu and Da-Lin Zhang

A Multiscale Numerical Study of Hurricane Andrew (1992)

Shuyi S. Chen1 Wei Zhao1, Ralph Foster2, W. Timothy Liu3

Orographic Influences on Rainfall Associated with Tropical Cyclone

The Flux Model of Orographic Rain

Presentation transcript:

Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting in Tropical Cyclones Shuyi S. Chen Manuel Lonfat, Joseph Tenerelli, Frank Marks Robert Rogers, Fiona Horsfall Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science University of Miami NOAA/AOML/HRD NOAA/NWS/TPC

Factors that Influence TC Rainfall Intensity Shear Landmass/Topography TC/Synoptic System Interaction Translation speed Moisture advection Microphysics/Aerosol Surface Flux

HRD/AOML P3 LF REFLECTIVITY 2030 UTC 14 SEP 1999 2300 UTC 13 SEP 1999

Uncoupled

Sensitivity to Model Grid Resolution

15 km 1.67 km

Influence of Vertical Shear and Synoptic Weather Systems

Hurricane Floyd (1999)

Hurricane Bonnie (1998)

Quantitative Precipitation Estimates from TRMM TMI/PR

Hurricane Floyd (1999)

TRMM/TMI Azimuthal Averages (1998-2000) R (mm/hr)

TMI PDF of R 90% or 50%

Measures of R PDF R-CLIPER uses mean from PDF - not best measure of PDF (log-normal) - shows intensity influence Other measures are the median of the PDF (area and flux). Area shows intensity influence, but flux does not, except in the inner core.

TC QPF Questions What characteristic of PDF of R are we trying to predict, i.e., mean R, Rmax, etc.? What is best measure of PDF of R to use to answer the question, i.e., mean, median, 90% of PDF? How do we develop a evaluation/validation system for high-resolution QPF product? How will it be used operationally, perhaps a combination of deterministic and probabilistic measure that takes into account of track errors?