Signalling – for the next generation Stuart Calvert Head of Early Contractor Involvement, Digital Railway Rail Technology Summit 26 April 2018

Challenges

Britain’s railways are booming Britain’s railways are booming. Passenger numbers have doubled since the mid-90s. Set to double again over the next 25 years. A billion more journeys by the mid 2030s. Tens of thousands of travellers use packed trains every day and many have to stand on their daily commute to work - trains take longer to stop, set down, pick up and depart at platforms. In many of the most economically important parts of the network the railway is already operating at or above capacity. This is bad news for passengers, the freight industry and will act as a drag on economic growth Key stations which connect into and between our major urban areas are already full at peak times (e.g., Birmingham New Street, Kings Cross, Leeds, Euston, Manchester Piccadilly, Paddington, London Victoria, London Bridge). A gradual decline in performance is likely to continue as the railways get busier and busier We’re already running more and longer trains. But with these changes alone, cannot meet projected demand. Therefore we need to find a way to improve how we manage the rail network to enable better performance and additional capacity for people to travel more reliably into and between cities. 3

The basic principle of signalling has not changed since the railway began. The system of railway ‘blocks’ and lineside red signals to keep trains apart is very safe but it is also very inefficient. It is based on the braking speed of the least efficient trains - usually the oldest. This means there is lots of ‘white space’ on the network. We have ageing infrastructure on our railway. We’ve got ‘dumb infrastructure’. It doesn’t know what it is or what is running on it making it unable to adapt and adjust accordingly to ensure maximum performance. We need to deploy assets that remotely monitor its condition. We will use the data captured to maintain our railway more effectively and keep trains running. With the technology now available to us in this day and age, we can fundamentally change the way the network runs.

Drivers for change Capacity Performance Asset Safety Sustainability Passenger numbers more than doubled in the last 20 years Major capacity constraints to freight growth along key corridors The number of incidents have reduced The impact of each incident continues to increase – up to 70% is secondary delay Passenger journeys (Millions per annum) No. of incidents vs. delay per incident Capacity Performance Asset Passenger Safety The underlying risk profile for Signals Passed at Danger (SPADs) has not shown significant change for a number of years Trackside Worker Safety Network Rail’s third biggest track worker safety risk is posed by the potential for staff to be struck by train whilst working track side Deferring renewal activity because of a lack of funds. Expenditure would need to more than double in CP7&8 to catch up. This is not affordable or deliverable. Safety Sustainability Increasingly we are seeing a link between a network that is effectively full in many places and a deterioration in performance Over the last ten to fifteen years, Britain’s railway network has seen a growth in demand that any business would be proud of. Over £45 billion is being invested between 2014 and 2019, to deliver improvements such as Thameslink, Crossrail and HS2, bringing significant benefits to passengers and freight across the economy. This plan alone cannot keep up with rising customer demand on many parts of the network Whilst we have reduced the number of delay incidences, the length of each delay has increased and is negatively affecting performance. If a train misses its allocated time at several stations on the route, the delay ripples to other parts of the network throughout the day. Long term demographic trends like population growth and urbanisation mean more people travelling within and between major cities and city regions. 3. The deployment of Digital Railway technologies and practices will improve safety for passengers and workers 4. The traditional system of signalling and train control is a barrier to progress The cost of installing conventional signalling continues to rise. The need to replace outdated signalling on the network also continues to grow year on year. It is currently time-consuming, disruptive and unaffordable to continue in this way. In some instances, major conventional work will be required. But it will be vital to integrate ‘digital’ into the design upfront.

Components of the Digital Railway The Digital Railway brings together systems, technology, business and people change in an integrated way If we continue to rely on conventional signalling technology and our current renewal plans, the network is simply not sustainable in the longer term – neither from a capacity/performance perspective nor from a cost perspective The Digital Railway is happening now with ETCS technology also being introduced on the new Elizabeth Line. In-cab signalling equipment included on the new Class 700s trains for the Thameslink programme at the point of manufacture. Traffic Management software will be introduced in three Routes later this year and our proposals for CP6 will see Digital Railway technology rolled-out on Routes that account for 70% of all passenger journeys. European Train Control System (ETCS) Digital signalling reduces the risk of human error, thus improving safety on the lines Connected Driver Advisory Systems (CDAS) CDAS will provide the ability to maximise performance, capacity and energy efficiency. It will allow trains to run to the current plan not the plan presented at beginning of the day. + Automatic Train Operation (ATO) ATO was introduced on the London Underground's Northern line in 2013 Just a few weeks ago we saw the world’s first mainline passenger train operating under Automatic Train Control (ATO) through the Thameslink Core between St Pancras and Blackfriars. This is just one element of our industry’s flagship Thameslink Programme, but it is a vital part of delivering a metro style mainline railway of up to 24 trains per hour though the core. Traffic Management (TM) More trains will be able to run on the lines, reducing capacity constraints, with delays also more easily managed and avoided. Less delays will obviously improve passengers’ customer experience Traffic Management is being deployed in Anglia, Wales and Western In addition, initiatives to improve telecoms and data will underpin the systems - vital to the success of the digital railway. But introducing the technology on its own won’t be enough. What we propose will mean a fundamental change across the rail industry. It has been integral to the programme to involve all aspects of the supply chain, to have their support and ensure they are ready to own this change.

The rate of change and innovation represents a existential threat to the railway London Underground +20-40% more capacity Digital air-traffic control +60% more capacity Smart Motorways +20% more capacity The world’s 1st rail-less train unveiled in Zhuzhou, central China ‘Self-driving’ lorries to feature on major roads by late 2018 The race to develop a driverless car has many contenders A new mode of transportation If the railway doesn’t change, it will decline and deservedly so. The railway has been painfully slow to embrace new technology. We have a once in a generation chance to break with the past: to modernise the network and build the foundations of a better performing, safer network

We have a once in a generation chance to break with the past The current infrastructure cannot deliver the improvements – especially the extra capacity we need. Our signalling renewals cycle dictates that more than half of signalling needs to be replaced within 15 years. Due to the typical lifespan of a signalling system we will be locked into using conventional signalling for another 35 years. We should not replace signalling schemes with conventional technology. Timing is critical. We need to modernise our railway and build the foundations of a better performing, safer network 35 years = the typical lifespan of a signalling system Therefore all new schemes from CP6 onwards must be based on digital railway technology. Or if that’s not immediately possible, that at the very least all signalling renewal schemes must meet our “DR ready” standard Importantly, there’s also broad cross-industry agreement that it should happen…. Which leads me on to supplier engagement…

Evolution of supplier engagement

Objectives of the Early Contractor Involvement Programme With the support of the Rail Supply Group, Digital Railway launched the ECI programme in July 2016 with the primary focus of: Exploring whether, and how, the supply chain could drive a more cost effective and outcome focused approach for rail customers Verifying claims that targeted deployment of digital technology would deliver capacity and performance benefits on the rail network Encouraging the development of rail innovation and potential solutions to deliver a digitised railway more quickly and affordably

Digital Railway Early Contractor Involvement July 2016 December 2016 January 2017 April 2017 July 2017 December 2017 January 2018 Early Contractor Involvement initiated ECI Phase One findings published ECI Phase One detailed findings workshops held at IMechE, London ECI Phase Two findings published ECI Phase Two detailed findings workshops held at University of Birmingham Joint Development Group initiated Seven work streams undertaken by the ECI Phase One suppliers Nine work streams undertaken by the ECI Phase Two suppliers Ongoing ECI work to support ongoing development of the Digital Railway and Route business cases

Benefits of the ECI programme Strong support for the Digital Railway programme’s work and development of targeted business cases has been achieved A willingness to radically change the cultures and behaviours of product acceptance and project delivery from both supplier and client has been demonstrated ECI findings have informed the work of the Digital Railway programme, and supports the development of an integrated industry plan. The Digital Railway programme is working with the Rail Supply Group to further develop evidence in support of the findings and to embed those recommendations into the targeted set of business cases Collaboration amongst suppliers has been stimulated, which has the potential to increase exportable products and services and generate UK resource growth and skills development

Timelines

Digital Railway delivery approach Short term Medium term Long term CP5 (to 2019) CP6 to mid CP7 (2019 to c.2027) Mid CP7 (c.2027) To the long term NPIF £450m helps in closing the gap from today to the mid-term Fleet Fit for both Passenger and freight Development of new technologies may change the development strategy

Short term: enabling activities

Planned Train Fitments are unlocking the roll out of ERTMS on key corridors in CP6 Glasgow ROC Edinburgh ROC York ROC Manchester ROC Derby ROC Rugby ROC Cardiff ROC Didcot ROC Basingstoke ROC Three Bridge ROC Romford ROC HS2 will be fitted with ETCS operating on the north of the West Coast from 2026. Existing Class 390s have elements of ETCS to operate their tilt systems Large proportions of trains on ECML, GEML and Wessex Suburban will be fitted by 2022 Freight plan being addressed (through FIC, engagement with FOC's and working with FNPO -and ORR *Retro fitment fleet fitment not committed beyond first in class fitment The map shows the percentage of train kms by 2022 based on the following passenger trains being ETCS fitted or ETCS ready: Cambrian IEP Thameslink Crossrail East Coast Main Line (VTEC and OA)* Trans Pennine Express + Northern Anglia ETCS ready Wessex Inner Suburban Trains % of ETCS trains mid CP6 2022 we need funding to fit the entire fleet of go-anywhere freight trains. We’ve already used £150million of the seed funding given to us by government over a year ago to undertake the first in-cab fitment of freight trains. We are working closely with the government to enable the franchise system to dictate that all new rolling stock is factory fitted with ETCS equipment

Digital Railway milestones Nov – Dec 17 Jan – March 18 April – June 18 July – Sept 18 Oct – Dec 18 Romford ROC integrated Traffic Management Cardiff Traffic Management operational decision support tools system live Western Traffic Management go-live Capacity Benefit for Thameslink Cardiff Stage 5 Additional Capability Drop South East Franchise Intention to Tender (ITT) Upminster Traffic Management operational decision support tools system live First in Class Programme Digital Railway Strategic Business Plan submission to ORR East Coast Main Line ITT for design work ready for issue South East Franchise Contract Award Cross Country franchise Intention to Tender (ITT) Test track Contract Award Freight fitment Contract Award West Coast Partnership Contract Award Electrostar First in Class fitment Contract Award Timings correct as at 16.04.18. Any changes will be notified via subsequent updates

Short term: early deployments Cambrian Line Implementation of ETCS Level 2 (no line-side signals) along 215 kilometres of track. New Control Centre and fitment of 24 passenger trains. Thameslink, and Network Rail’s elements of Crossrail Part of the early implementation of individual train control systems. Romford and Cardiff Rail Operating Centres (ROCs) Deploying Traffic Management systems to drive early performance benefits and build experience that will benefit future deployments. Great Western Route Trialling Luminate, a new Traffic Management product, along the stretch of the Great Western Route, from London Paddington to Bristol Parkway.

Medium – long term: targeted business cases Western Wessex South East East Coast Main Line Anglia Trans Pennine Upgrade West Coast Mainline East London Line The purpose of the Strategic Outline Business Cases (SOBCs) is to provide the DR Programme and the DfT with the necessary information to make an informed decision as to which schemes to fund for development purposes. DR SOBCs Other SOBCs and opportunities Rail Operating Centres

East Coast Main Line – new procurement approach Business Case benefits: Lower whole life costs Capacity relief Performance mitigation Safety enhancements Framework agreement for train control Applies to whole of ECML for 4 yrs (extendable) First Call-off will be ECML(S) to Stoke Tunnel 30 yrs support contract after completion Opportunity: Significant interlocking replacements forecast in next 5 years Short window of opportunity to use the renewals funding Isolated traffic management up to Doncaster to be procured as a Software-as-a-Service agreement Moorgate branch replacement imminent – separate business case

A reminder of the benefits of Digital Railway Better performance for passengers and freight customer journeys Fewer closures & less disruption from renewals, maintenance & upgrade Enabling data connectivity for passenger and freight customers, as well as assets Better asset sustainability (lower whole life cost) Enhanced safety for passengers and workforce Increased capacity to meet demand Enabling faster journey times People Industry skills, capability and business change Enabled by people, skills, capability and business change Safe separation of trains – ETCS (European Train Control System) Traffic Management Technology Train Movement Control: Connected Driver Advisory System (C-DAS) & Automatic Train Operation (ATO) Telecoms and Data Enabled by telecoms and Data