Global Temperature Increases – Does Cooling Have a Statistical Basis for the last Three Decades? By Thomas Christian EAS 4803

1978-2010 Ground Data (on Left) vs 1978-2010 Ground Data (on Left) vs. Satellite Data (on Right) with Least Squares Regression and Error Bars p = 0.0187 p = 0.0134

Principal Component Regression with Ground Temperature Data on x-axis and Satellite Temperature Data on y-axis plotting for data from December 1978 until March 2010 Line in Black is the first PC regression line Line in Blue is the Reduced major axis regression Line in Green is the least-squares Lines in Magenta Represent 95% Confidence error bars pc = 0.8528; ls = 0.7131; rma = 0.8786

1998-2008 Ground Data (on Left) vs 1998-2008 Ground Data (on Left) vs. Satellite Data (on Right) with Least Squares Regression and Error Bars p = 0.0140 p = -0.0054 When Ground vs. Satellite Temperature Data is looked at for the decade 1998-2008 – a slight negative trend can be found for the Satellite Data

Principal Component Regression with Ground Temperature Data on x-axis and Satellite Temperature Data on y-axis plotting for data from December 1998 until 2008 Black Line is the first PC regression line Blue Line is the Reduced major axis regression Green Line is the least- squares regression Magenta Lines Represent 95% Confidence error bars pc = 1.0759; ls = 0.7410; rma = 1.0529

March 2009-March 2010 Ground Data (on Left) vs March 2009-March 2010 Ground Data (on Left) vs. Satellite Data (on Right) with Least Squares Regression and Error Bars p = 0.1099 p = 1.0e+003 * 0.0006

Principal Component Regression with Ground Temperature Data on x-axis and Satellite Temperature Data on y-axis plotting for data from March 2009 until March 2010 Black Line is the first PC regression line Blue Line is the Reduced major axis regression Green Line is the least-squares Magenta Lines Represent 95% Confidence error bars pc = 0.6797; ls = 0.3652; rma = 0.8432

Conclusions When data is cherry picked – cooling can be found, however this signal is limited and not pronounced. There is no statistical basis for global cooling. The global mean temperature is increasing and has been for the last 30 years which were analyzed in this project. PCR was used because the sum of the products of vertical and horizontal distances is minimized. There is no bias for x and y. Data sources: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata/ GLB.Ts.txt and http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/ uahncdc.lt