Water Demand Forecasting

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Presentation transcript:

Water Demand Forecasting SAD Water Supply Conference Wilmington, NC David Luckie (CESAM-PD) 251-690-2608

Completed & Ongoing Studies Post Authorization Change Notification Report, Lake Lanier 1989 Carters and Allatoona Reallocations, 1991 ACT & ACF Comprehensive Studies, 1994-1996 Black Warrior Headwaters Basin Section 22, Birmingham, AL, 1995-1996 ACT & ACF Programmatic EIS’ 1998 Choctawhatchee Pea & Yellow Rivers Basin Section 22, Southeastern Alabama, 2001 Jackson County, MS Water Supply Project, 2002 Okaloosa County, FL Section 22

Why do we care? Project design issues Contractual issues Environmental impacts Economics (NED & RED) Financial impacts Public Confidence

What is “Demand?” Demand: The amount of water desired by an aggregate consumer base, given: Price Weather Season Time Economic setting

The Gadget Box IWR-MAIN - The Corps Standard CorpsWater - Spreadsheet Model from Mobile Your own models The Rule of Thumb

IWR-MAIN Experience High degree of accuracy Hungry! Some knowledge of factors influencing water demand

CorpsWater More uncertainty Less flexibility Easy to use Relatively cheap Not as data hungry

The Rule of Thumb 150 gallons per person per day 100 gallons per employee per week Obviously cheap Obvious issues on uncertainty

Which Tool? Let Size and Complexity Decide IWR-MAIN: Watershed level studies Cross state boundaries CorpsWater/Spreadsheet Models: Single utility Small geographic area

IWR-MAIN Features Disaggregation Seasonal models Indoor/Outdoor fractions Sensitivity Price Elasticity Driven by housing stock & employment Conservation Manager Benefit/Cost Analysis Actively developed & updated

Mobile District’s CorpsWater Spreadsheet Model--Small, Easy, Quick Seasonal Models No Price Elasticity No Indoor/Outdoor fractions Not as sensitive No Conservation Analysis No Black Boxes! Developed & updated as project funds permit

What We’re Good At Residential Water Demand Non-Residential Water Demand Public-use Water Demand Estimating Shortage Risk using other tools

What We’re NOT Good At Thermal Power Generation Agricultural Water Demand Mining

You Need Data Many variables affect water demand: The key variables: Population, housing, employment, income, weather, household size, water price, culture, lot size, growing season... The key variables: Housing units, employment, weather

Potential Data Sources Census Bureau Water Utilities National Weather Service US Geological Survey State, Regional, Local Planning Agency County Extension Agent

Seasonal Use Patterns Summer Use vs. Winter Use Less variability in non-residential sectors Seasonal and Peak Use drive system design Drought contingency Conservation plans

Sectoral Use Patterns Residential Non-Residential Single family Multifamily Mobile Home Non-Residential Two Digit SIC (basic) Custom Model

Unaccounted for Water Use Water lost to theft, leakage, flushing and accidents Firefighting Un-metered public use American Water Works Association target set to 10% of metered use

Basic Demand Forecasting Collect & analyze historical use data Prepare water demand model(s) “Back-cast” history Calibrate by altering intercept Forecast future demand Interpret and analyze results

Basic Demand Forecasting Tips: Use more than one growth scenario Use AWWA Target of 10% Unaccounted Forecast demand assuming it will be supplied

Advanced Demand Forecasting Use IWR-MAIN Survey users End use coefficients Indoor/Outdoor fractions Seasonal use models Calibrate by altering model coefficients

Conservation Passive - Relatively cheap, voluntary measures to reduce consumption Active - Expensive, coercive measures to reduce consumption

Conservation Passive vs. Active Conservation: Passive: Active: Education Voluntary retrofit System loss reduction Active: Price changes Utility sponsored retrofit Code changes

Conservation Passive conservation measures rarely reduce aggregate demand Active conservation measures often reduce aggregate demand, but not always

Pitfalls Crude non-residential modeling Schools, hospitals, prisons, golf courses Vacation homes

Gee Whiz! Tampa Florida has residential water use of about 63 gallons per customer day Birmingham, AL: 251 gals/day Dothan, AL: 289 gals/day High Density multifamily housing will usually have the highest residential use rate. Why? What device or appliance in the home uses the most water? What nonresidential sector uses the most water per employee?