Fast Algorithms for Time Series with applications to Finance, Physics, Music and other Suspects Dennis Shasha Joint work with Yunyue Zhu, Xiaojian Zhao, Zhihua Wang, and Alberto Lerner {shasha,yunyue, xiaojian, zhihua, lerner}@cs.nyu.edu Courant Institute, New York University

Goal of this work Time series are important in so many applications – biology, medicine, finance, music, physics, … A few fundamental operations occur all the time: burst detection, correlation, pattern matching. Do them fast to make data exploration faster, real time, and more fun. /86

Sample Needs Pairs Trading in Finance: find two stocks that track one another closely. When they go out of correlation, buy one and sell the other. Match a person’s humming against a database of songs to help him/her buy a song. Find bursts of activity even when you don’t know the window size over which to measure. Query and manipulate ordered data. /86

Why Speed Is Important As processors speed up, algorithmic efficiency no longer matters … one might think. True if problem sizes stay same but they don’t. As processors speed up, sensors improve --satellites spewing out a terabyte a day, magnetic resonance imagers give higher resolution images, etc. Desire for real time response to queries. /86

More data, real-time response, increasing importance of correlation Surprise, surprise More data, real-time response, increasing importance of correlation IMPLIES Efficient algorithms and data management more important than ever! /86

Corollary Important area, lots of new problems. Small advertisement: High Performance Discovery in Time Series (Springer 2004). At this conference. /86

Outline Correlation across thousands of time series Query by humming: correlation + shifting Burst detection: when you don’t know window size Aquery: a query language for time series. /86

Real-time Correlation Across Thousands (and scaling) of Time Series

Scalable Methods for Correlation Compress streaming data into moving synopses. Update the synopses in constant time. Compare synopses in near linear time with respect to number of time series. Use transforms + simple data structures. (Avoid curse of dimensionality.) /86

GEMINI framework* * Faloutsos, C., Ranganathan, M. & Manolopoulos, Y. (1994). Fast subsequence matching in time-series databases. In proceedings of the ACM SIGMOD Int'l Conference on Management of Data. Minneapolis, MN, May 25-27. pp 419-429. /86

StatStream (VLDB,2002): Example Stock prices streams The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) 50,000 securities (streams); 100,000 ticks (trade and quote) Pairs Trading, a.k.a. Correlation Trading Query:“which pairs of stocks were correlated with a value of over 0.9 for the last three hours?” XYZ and ABC have been correlated with a correlation of 0.95 for the last three hours. Now XYZ and ABC become less correlated as XYZ goes up and ABC goes down. They should converge back later. I will sell XYZ and buy ABC … /86

Online Detection of High Correlation Given tens of thousands of high speed time series data streams, to detect high-value correlation, including synchronized and time-lagged, over sliding windows in real time. Real time high update frequency of the data stream fixed response time, online Correlated! /86

Online Detection of High Correlation Given tens of thousands of high speed time series data streams, to detect high-value correlation, including synchronized and time-lagged, over sliding windows in real time. Real time high update frequency of the data stream fixed response time, online /86

Online Detection of High Correlation Given tens of thousands of high speed time series data streams, to detect high-value correlation, including synchronized and time-lagged, over sliding windows in real time. Real time high update frequency of the data stream fixed response time, online Correlated! /86

StatStream: Naïve Approach Goal: find most highly correlated stream pairs over sliding windows N : number of streams w : size of sliding window space O(N) and time O(N2w) . Suppose that the streams are updated every second. With a Pentium 4 PC, the exact computing method can monitor only 700 streams, where each calculation takes place with a separation of two minutes. “Punctuated result model” – not continuous, but online. /86

StatStream: Our Approach Use Discrete Fourier Transform to approximate correlation as in Gemini approach. Every two minutes (“basic window size”), update the DFT for each time series over the last hour (“window size”) Use grid structure to filter out unlikely pairs Our approach can report highly correlated pairs among 10,000 streams for the last hour with a delay of 2 minutes. So, at 2:02, find highly correlated pairs between 1 PM and 2 PM. At 2:04, find highly correlated pairs between 1:02 and 2:02 PM etc. /86

StatStream: Stream synoptic data structure Three level time interval hierarchy Time point, Basic window, Sliding window Basic window (the key to our technique) The computation for basic window i must finish by the end of the basic window i+1 The basic window time is the system response time. Digests Basic window digests: sum DFT coefs Sliding window Basic window Time point /86

StatStream: Stream synoptic data structure Three level time interval hierarchy Time point, Basic window, Sliding window Basic window (the key to our technique) The computation for basic window i must finish by the end of the basic window i+1 The basic window time is the system response time. Digests Basic window digests: sum DFT coefs Sliding window Basic window Time point Basic window digests: sum DFT coefs /86

StatStream: Stream synoptic data structure Three level time interval hierarchy Time point, Basic window, Sliding window Basic window (the key to our technique) The computation for basic window i must finish by the end of the basic window i+1 The basic window time is the system response time. Digests Basic window digests: sum DFT coefs Sliding window Basic window Time point Basic window digests: sum DFT coefs Sliding window digests: sum DFT coefs /86

StatStream: Stream synoptic data structure Three level time interval hierarchy Time point, Basic window, Sliding window Basic window (the key to our technique) The computation for basic window i must finish by the end of the basic window i+1 The basic window time is the system response time. Digests Basic window digests: sum DFT coefs Sliding window Basic window Time point Basic window digests: sum DFT coefs Sliding window digests: sum DFT coefs /86

StatStream: Stream synoptic data structure Three level time interval hierarchy Time point, Basic window, Sliding window Basic window (the key to our technique) The computation for basic window i must finish by the end of the basic window i+1 The basic window time is the system response time. Digests Basic window digests: sum DFT coefs Basic window digests: sum DFT coefs Basic window digests: sum DFT coefs Time point Basic window Sliding window /86

How general technique is applied Compress streaming data into moving synopses: Discrete Fourier Transform. Update the synopses in time proportional to number of coefficients: basic window idea. Compare synopses in real time: compare DFTs. Use transforms + simple data structures (grid structure). /86

Synchronized Correlation Uses Basic Windows Inner-product of aligned basic windows Stream x Stream y Basic window Sliding window Inner-product within a sliding window is the sum of the inner-products in all the basic windows in the sliding window. /86

Approximate Synchronized Correlation Approximate with an orthogonal function family (e.g. DFT) x1 x2 x3 x4 x5 x6 x7 x8 f1(1) f1(2) f1(3) f1(4) f1(5) f1(6) f1(7) f1(8) f2(1) f2(2) f2(3) f2(4) f2(5) f2(6) f2(7) f2(8) f3(1) f3(2) f3(3) f3(4) f3(5) f3(6) f3(7) f3(8) /86

Approximate Synchronized Correlation Approximate with an orthogonal function family (e.g. DFT) x1 x2 x3 x4 x5 x6 x7 x8 /86

Approximate Synchronized Correlation Approximate with an orthogonal function family (e.g. DFT) x1 x2 x3 x4 x5 x6 x7 x8 y1 y2 y3 y4 y5 y6 y7 y8 /86

Approximate Synchronized Correlation Approximate with an orthogonal function family (e.g. DFT) Inner product of the time series Inner product of the digests The time and space complexity is reduced from O(b) to O(n). b : size of basic window n : size of the digests (n<<b) e.g. 120 time points reduce to 4 digests x1 x2 x3 x4 x5 x6 x7 x8 y1 y2 y3 y4 y5 y6 y7 y8 /86

Approximate lagged Correlation Inner-product with unaligned windows sliding window The time complexity is reduced from O(b) to O(n2) , as opposed to O(n) for synchronized correlation. Reason: terms for different frequencies are non-zero in the lagged case. /86

Grid Structure(to avoid checking all pairs) The DFT coefficients yields a vector. High correlation => closeness in the vector space We can use a grid structure and look in the neighborhood, this will return a super set of highly correlated pairs. x /86

Empirical Study : Speed Our algorithm is parallelizable. /86

Empirical Study: Accuracy Approximation errors Larger size of digests, larger size of sliding window and smaller size of basic window give better approximation The approximation errors (mistake in correlation coef) are small. /86

Sketches : Random Projection* Correlation between time series of the returns of stock Since most stock price time series are close to random walks, their return time series are close to white noise DFT/DWT can’t capture approximate white noise series because there is no clear trend (too many frequency components). Solution : Sketches (a form of random landmark) Sketch pool: list of random vectors drawn from stable distribution Sketch : The list of distances from a data vector to the sketch pool. The Euclidean distance (correlation) between time series is approximated by the distance between their sketches with a probabilistic guarantee. W.B.Johnson and J.Lindenstrauss. “Extensions of Lipshitz mapping into hilbert space”. Contemp. Math.,26:189-206,1984 D. Achlioptas. “Database-friendly random projections”. In Proceedings of the twentieth ACM SIGMOD-SIGACT-SIGART symposium on Principles of database systems, ACM Press,2001 /86

Sketches : Intuition You are walking in a sparse forest and you are lost. You have an old-time cell phone without GPS. You want to know whether you are close to your friend. You identify yourself as 100 meters from the pointy rock, 200 meters from the giant oak etc. If your friend is at similar distances from several of these landmarks, you might be close to one another. The sketch is just the set of distances. /86

Sketches : Random Projection inner product sketches raw time series random vector 34/86

The ratio of sketch distance/real distance (Sliding window size=256 and sketch size=80) /86

Empirical Study: Sketch on Price and Return Data DFT and DWT work well for prices (today’s price is a good predictor of tomorrow’s) But badly for returns (todayprice – yesterdayprice)/todayprice. Data length=256 and the first 14 DFT coefficients are used in the distance computation, db2 wavelet is used here with coefficient size=16 and sketch size is 64 /86

Empirical Comparison: DFT, DWT and Sketch /86

Empirical Comparison : DFT, DWT and Sketch /86

Sketch Guarantees Note: Sketches do not provide approximations of individual time series window but help make comparisons. Johnson-Lindenstrauss Lemma: For any and any integer n, let k be a positive integer such that Then for any set V of n points in , there is a map such that for all Further this map can be found in randomized polynomial time /86

Overcoming curse of dimensionality* May need many random projections. Can partition sketches into disjoint pairs or triplets and perform comparisons on those. Each such small group is placed into an index. Algorithm must adapt to give the best results. *Idea from P.Indyk,N.Koudas, and S.Muthukrishnan. “Identifying representative trends in massive time series data sets using sketches”. VLDB 2000. /86

Inner product with random vectors r1,r2,r3,r4,r5,r6 X Y Z Inner product with random vectors r1,r2,r3,r4,r5,r6 41/86

Grid structure /86

Further Performance Improvements -- Suppose we have R random projections of window size WS. -- Might seem that we have to do R*WS work for each timepoint for each time series. -- In ongoing work with colleague Richard Cole, we show that we can cut this down by use of convolution and an oxymoronic notion of “structured random vectors”. *Idea from Dimitris Achlioptas, “Database-friendly Random Projections”, Proceedings of the twentieth ACM SIGMOD-SIGACT-SIGART symposium on Principles of database systems /86

Empirical Study: Speed Sketch+Grid structure Sliding window=3616 and basic window=32 /86

Empirical Study: Breakdown /86

Empirical Study: Breakdown /86

Query by humming: Correlation + Shifting

Query By Humming You have a song in your head. You want to get it but don’t know its title. If you’re not too shy, you hum it to your friends or to a salesperson and you find it. They may grimace, but you get your CD /86

With a Little Help From My Warped Correlation Karen’s humming Match: Dennis’s humming Match: “What would you do if I sang out of tune?" Yunyue’s humming Match: /86

Related Work in Query by Humming Traditional method: String Matching [Ghias et. al. 95, McNab et.al. 97,Uitdenbgerd and Zobel 99] Music represented by string of pitch directions: U, D, S (degenerated interval) Hum query is segmented to discrete notes, then string of pitch directions Edit Distance between hum query and music score Problem Very hard to segment the hum query Partial solution: users are asked to hum articulately New Method : matching directly from audio [Mazzoni and Dannenberg 00] We use both. /86

Time Series Representation of Query Segment this! An example hum query Note segmentation is hard! /86

How to deal with poor hummers? No absolute pitch Solution: the average pitch is subtracted Inaccurate pitch intervals Solution: return the k-nearest neighbors Incorrect overall tempo Solution: Uniform Time Warping Local timing variations Solution: Dynamic Time Warping Bottom line: timing variations take us beyond Euclidean distance. /86

Dynamic Time Warping Euclidean distance: sum of point-by-point distance DTW distance: allowing stretching or squeezing the time axis locally /86

Envelope Transform using Piecewise Aggregate Approximation(PAA) [Keogh VLDB 02] /86

Envelope Transform using Piecewise Aggregate Approximation(PAA) Advantage of tighter envelopes Still no false negatives, and fewer false positives /86

Container Invariant Envelope Transform Container-invariant A transformation T for envelope such that Theorem: if a transformation is Container-invariant and Lower-bounding, then the distance between transformed times series x and transformed envelope of y lower bound their DTW distance. Feature Space /86

Framework to Scale Up for Large Database Top N’ match Rhythm alignment verifier rhythm (duration) Query criteria Database Humming with ‘ta’ keywords note/duration sequence segment notes Top N match Nearest-N search on DTW distance with transformed envelope filter melody (note) Database statistics based features Boosted feature filter boosting Database Keyword filter /86

Improvement by Introducing Humming with ‘ta’ * Solve the problem of note segmentation Compare humming with ‘la’ and ‘ta’ * Idea from N. Kosugi et al “A pratical query-by-humming system for a large music database” ACM Multimedia 2000 /86

Improvement by Introducing Humming with ‘ta’(2) Still use DTW distance to tolerate poor humming Decrease the size of time series by orders of magnitude. Thus reduce the computation of DTW distance /86

Statistics-Based Filters * Low dimensional statistic feature comparison Low computation cost comparing to DTW distance Quickly filter out true negatives Example Filter out candidates whose note length is much larger/smaller than the query’s note length More Standard Derivation of note value Zero crossing rate of note value Number of local minima of note value Number of local maxima of note value * Intuition from Erling Wold et al “Content-based classification, search and retrieval of audio” IEEE Multimedia 1996 http://www.musclefish.com /86

Boosting Statistics-Based Filters Characteristics of statistics-based filters Quick but weak classifier May have false negatives/false positives Ideal candidates for boosting Boosting * “An algorithm for constructing a ‘strong’ classifier using only a training set and a set of ‘weak’ classification algorithm” “A particular linear combination of these weak classifiers is used as the final classifier which has a much smaller probability of misclassification” * Cynthia Rudin et al “On the Dynamics of Boosting” In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 2004 /86

Verify Rhythm Alignment in the Query Result Nearest-N search only used melody information Will A. Arentz et al* suggests combining rhythm and melody Results are generally better than using only melody information Not appropriate when the sum of several notes’ duration in the query may be related to duration of one note in the candidate Our method: First use melody information for DTW distance computing Merge durations appropriately based on the note alignment Reject candidates which have bad rhythm alignment * Will Archer Arentz “Methods for retrieving musical information based on rhythm and pitch correlation” CSGSC 2003 /86

Query by Humming Demo 1039 songs (73051 note/duration sequences) /86

Burst detection: when window size is unknown

Burst Detection: Applications Discovering intervals with unusually large numbers of events. In astrophysics, the sky is constantly observed for high-energy particles. When a particular astrophysical event happens, a shower of high-energy particles arrives in addition to the background noise. Might last milliseconds or days… In telecommunications, if the number of packages lost within a certain time period exceeds some threshold, it might indicate some network anomaly. Exact duration is unknown. In finance, stocks with unusual high trading volumes should attract the notice of traders (or perhaps regulators). /86

Bursts across different window sizes in Gamma Rays Challenge : to discover not only the time of the burst, but also the duration of the burst. /86

Burst Detection: Challenge Single stream problem. What makes it hard is we are looking at multiple window sizes at the same time. Naïve approach is to do this one window size at a time. /86

Elastic Burst Detection: Problem Statement Problem: Given a time series of positive numbers x1, x2,..., xn, and a threshold function f(w), w=1,2,...,n, find the subsequences of any size such that their sums are above the thresholds: all 0<w<n, 0<m<n-w, such that xm+ xm+1+…+ xm+w-1 ≥ f(w) Brute force search : O(n^2) time Our shifted binary tree (SBT): O(n+k) time. k is the size of the output, i.e. the number of windows with bursts /86

Burst Detection: Data Structure and Algorithm Define threshold for node for size 2k to be threshold for window of size 1+ 2k-1 /86

Burst Detection: Example /86

Burst Detection: Example False Alarm True Alarm /86

Burst Detection: Algorithm In linear time, determine whether any node in SBT indicates an alarm. If so, do a detailed search to confirm (true alarm) or deny (false alarm) a real burst. In on-line version of the algorithm, need keep only most recent node at each level. /86

False Alarms (requires work, but no errors) /86

Empirical Study : Gamma Ray Burst /86

Case Study: Burst Detection(1) Background: Motivation: In astrophysics, the sky is constantly observed for high-energy particles. When a particular astrophysical event happens, a shower of high-energy particles arrives in addition to the background noise. An unusual event burst may signal an event interesting to physicists. Technical Overview: 1.The sky is partitioned into 1800*900 buckets. 2.14 Sliding window lengths are monitored from 0.1m to 39.81m 3.The original code implements the naive algorithm. 1800 900 75/86

Case Study: Burst Detection(2) The challenges: 1.Vast amount of data 1800*900 time series, so any trivial overhead may be accumulated to become nontrivial expenses. 2. Unavoidable overheads of data transformations Data pre-processing such as fetching and storage requires much work. SBT trees have to be built no matter how many sliding windows to be investigated. Thresholds are maintained over time due to the different background noises. Hit on one bucket will affect its neighbours as shown in the previous figure 76/86

Case Study: Burst Detection(3) Our solutions: 1. Combine near buckets into one to save space and processing time. If any alarms reported for this large bucket, go down to see each small components (two level detailed search). 2. Special implementation of SBT tree Build the SBT tree only including those levels covering the sliding windows Maintain a threshold tree for the sliding windows and update it over time. Fringe benefits: 1. Adding window sizes is easy. 2. More sliding windows monitored also benefit physicists. 77/86

Case Study: Burst Detection(4) Experimental results: 1. Benefits improve with more sliding windows. 2. Results consistent across different data files. 3. SBT algorithm runs 7 times faster than current algorithm. 4. More improvement possible if memory limitations are removed. 78/86

Extension to other aggregates SBT can be used for any aggregate that is monotonic SUM, COUNT and MAX are monotonically increasing the alarm threshold is aggregate<threshold MIN is monotonically decreasing Spread =MAX-MIN Application in Finance Stock with burst of trading or quote(bid/ask) volume (Hammer!) Stock prices with high spread /86

Empirical Study : Stock Price Spread Burst /86

Extension to high dimensions /86

Elastic Burst in two dimensions Population Distribution in the US /86

Can discover numeric thresholds from probability threshold. Suppose that the moving sum of a time series is a random variable from a normal distribution. Let the number of bursts in the time series within sliding window size w be So(w) and its expectation be Se(w). Se(w) can be computed from the historical data. Given a threshold probability p, we set the threshold of burst f(w) for window size w such that Pr[So(w) ≥ f(w)] ≤p. /86

Find threshold for Elastic Bursts Φ(x) is the normal cdf, so symmetric around 0: Therefore Φ(x) x p /86 Φ-1(p)

Summary of Burst Detection Able to detect bursts on many different window sizes in essentially linear time. Can be used both for time series and for spatial searching. Can specify thresholds either with absolute numbers or with probability of hit. Algorithm is simple to implement and has low constants (code is available). Ok, it’s embarrassingly simple. /86

AQuery A Database System for Order