The DTM suggests that at any set point in time BR and DR should correspond and be at a set difference apart, as shown by Country A. In reality this is rarely the case! The DTM is an important part of the Population unit – but this does not necessarily mean it is any good! When you apply real countries data to it almost always the results will show that the BR and DR are not in sync with each other. This is one of a number of criticisms of the DTM.

Learning Objectives To explain the strengths and limitations of the DTM.

Origins of the DTM (recap) Warren Thompson, was an American demographer. In 1929 he was the first person to discuss the theory of ‘demographic transition’. Thompson spent his life studying changes in European and North American populations, and applied them to all countries. He concluded that American population trends were related to food supply.

But how accurate is this simple pattern? Thompson invented a spectrum to show poor to rich counties. He assumed that all countries over time would move through to Group C. He considered that the main variables that influenced this transition would be BR and DR. GROUP A GROUP B GROUP C But how accurate is this simple pattern? 1. All countries start off as poor and undeveloped 2. As they urbanise and industrialise they become more developed – DR falls as wealth gets higher and health better. BR also later falls as less need for labour. It is this period where populations grows 3. At their most developed countries have low BR and low DR – reflecting high standards of living with good health and little need for large families.

Strengths of the DTM It is simple to understand The model is universal and can be applied to any country in the world. The model is flexible - there are no set time limits for each stage It enables comparisons to be made Because the model shows change over time, it can be used to predict what will happen next, as all countries are expected to progress through the stages of the model

Criticisms of the DTM It is based on European countries and includes many western based assumptions on development, e.g. that industrialisation occurs in stage 2 which causes death rates to fall – this is not the case for many countries where other factors have led to fall in DR Does not display variations within countries – i.e. births often vary dramatically from urban to rural areas Does not take into account countries which may become less developed – e.g. countries like Haiti which have been affected by major disasters Countries move through the stages at different rates – some NIC’s e.g. South Korea may even miss a stage as they become rich very quickly Factors that reduced death rates – imported practices from colonising countries (better healthcare, sanitation, etc.) Significantly the DTM only shows natural change (BR & DR). Population can also change as a result of migration – something which the model does not show at all. Political or social factors can increase or decrease BR, e.g. educating women.

Activity: Exam question Strengths and weaknesses of the DTM appears frequently in AS paper! Use the notes that you made for prep and the hand-out that you have been given to answer the 15 mark exam question. Exam tips: When terminology is used in a question start your answer by explaining what the term means (what the DTM is). Discuss both strengths and weaknesses. Use examples of countries at specific stages to support your points. Conclude your answer with your overall opinion.