Oceanic and Atmospheric Climate and Weather: Observations and Predictions Dr. Richard Hires Center for Maritime Systems Stevens Institute of Technology

Climate vs. Weather Average conditions over long time scales produce climate. Short-term intense variations in atmospheric or ocean conditions produce weather.

Oceanic and Atmospheric Interaction

Earth’s Climate Driven by complex interactions between: Solar Heating of the land and ocean Thermohaline circulation in the world ocean Atmospheric pressure and wind fields Wind driven ocean currents Heating and cooling of the atmosphere by the ocean surface (and vice versa)

Climate Variations The oceans modify Earth’s climate on many different scales: Global El Nino/La Nina Basin Caribbean Sea, Mediterranean Sea Regional Gulf Stream Local Sea Breeze, Storm Surge

Understanding Earth’s Climate For much of our history, scientists studied the atmosphere and ocean independently with little thought given to their interaction. Today, scientists are measuring many atmospheric and ocean parameters in an effort to quantify the interaction at the air-sea interface.

Scientific Method Researchers are improving the prediction of Ocean Weather and Climate through: Observations Data analysis Improved understanding of physics Simulation & modeling Ocean prediction systems

Observations

Image Courtesy of FNOMC: https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/PUBLIC

Image Courtesy of FNOMC: https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/PUBLIC

Image Courtesy of FNOMC: https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/PUBLIC

Image Courtesy of FNOMC: https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/PUBLIC

Image Courtesy of FNOMC: https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/PUBLIC

Observed Sea Surface Temperature Image Courtesy of the Naval Postgraduate School: http://www.oc.nps.navy.mil/webmodules/ENSO/

Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly Departure from the long-term July climate Image Courtesy of the Naval Postgraduate School: http://www.oc.nps.navy.mil/webmodules/ENSO/

El Nino SST Anomaly Sept. 1997 For more information see: http://topex-www.jpl.nasa.gov/science/time-series-images.html

La Nina SST Anomaly Sept. 1995 For more information see: http://topex-www.jpl.nasa.gov/science/time-series-images.html

Global Impacts El Nino La Nina Images Courtesy of the Naval Postgraduate School: http://www.oc.nps.navy.mil/webmodules/ENSO/

Neutral Condition La Nina El Nino Images Courtesy of the Naval Postgraduate School: http://www.oc.nps.navy.mil/webmodules/ENSO/

Modeling & Prediction of Ocean Weather

Global Models Both of the Atmosphere and Ocean

Predicted upper level global wind field For additional plots see: http://weather.uwyo.edu/models/fcst/ukmet.html

Predicted Global Sea Surface Height Anomalies Image courtesy of the Southampton Oceanography Centre: http://www.met.ed.ac.uk/~alan/assim/assim_occam.shtml

Predicted Global Wave Heights Image Courtesy of FNOMC: https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/PUBLIC

Regional Models Both for the Atmosphere and Ocean

Predicted surface winds and temperatures Image Courtesy of Unisys Weather: http://weather.unisys.com/

Product of NOAA’s Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS): http://polar

Product of NOAA’s Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS): http://polar

Product of NOAA’s Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS): http://polar

Product of NOAA’s Regional Ocean Forecast System (ROFS): http://polar

Predicted Regional Wave Height & Direction Product of NOAA Operational Modeling Branch, Wave Watch III Model: http://polar.wwb.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/nww3.cgi

Local Models

Integrated Observing and Modeling Systems

Chesapeake Bay Observation & Forecast System NOS Product of NOAA/NOS CO-OPS Program: http://co-ops.nos.noaa.gov/CBOFS/cbofs.shtml

North Wind South Wind From “A Guide To Wind Event Response in Chesapeake Bay” http://co-ops.nos.noaa.gov/CBOFS/WindEventsCombo.shtml

Images Courtesy of NOAA/AOML Hurricane Research Division: http://www

Product of NOAA/NOS CO-OPS Water Level Retrieval System: http://co-ops

Urban Ocean Observatory The New York Harbor Observing and Prediction System NYHOPS http://onr.dl.stevens-tech.edu/webnyhos3/

NYHOPS Model Domain

Ferry Route Map – New York Waterway

Observations turbidity, salinity, temperature (radio wireless ) HF RADAR (CODAR) surface currents and waves, ship surveillance Met tower, wind, temperature, pressure (radio wireless) ADCP: velocity, pressure, salinity, temp (hard-wired)

Real-Time Data Product of the Center for Maritime Systems, Stevens Institute of Technology: http://onr.dl.stevens-tech.edu/webnyhos3/

Product of the Center for Maritime Systems, Stevens Institute of Technology: http://onr.dl.stevens-tech.edu/webnyhos3/

Water Level Predictions Product of the Center for Maritime Systems, Stevens Institute of Technology: http://onr.dl.stevens-tech.edu/webnyhos3/

Present Conditions (30 min update cycle) Surface Salinity (psu) 24 April, 2004, 17:56 GMT Surface Temperature (°F) 24 April, 2004, 17:59 GMT

New York – New Jersey Harbor High Resolution Model Surface Current Forecasts High Resolution Model New York – New Jersey Harbor

Surface Currents Surface Salinity

Contaminated Sediment Transport Analysis and Dredging Impacts Currents and Salinity Depth http://onr.dl.stevens-tech.edu/webnyhos3/newarktop.html