Revised Monsoon 2015 Forecast

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Presentation transcript:

Revised Monsoon 2015 Forecast

98% OF LPA (+/-4%) NORMAL JUNE THROUGH SEPTEMBER (LPA = 887mm)

PROBABALITY OF MONSOON

EXPECTED NORMAL VS FORECAST 289 261 240 236* 189 194 LPA 173 164 Forecast * Figures till 30th July

MONSOON SPATIAL VARIABILITY JUNE (OBSERVED) Rainfall Departure: +16% Country as a whole received good amount of rainfall.

MONSOON SPATIAL VARIABILITY JUNE TO JULY (OBSERVED) Rainfall Departure: -4% Marathwada, parts of Madhya Maharashtra, North Interior Karnataka and Rayalseema are in deficit category.

MONSOON SPATIAL VARIABILITY JUNE TO AUGUST Poor Signal Rainfall Departure: -6% First fortnight of August is going to get good rainfall. Marathwada, parts of Madhya Maharashtra, North Interior Karnataka and Rayalseema are at risk. Poor Signal

MONSOON SPATIAL VARIABILITY JUNE TO SEPTEMBER Poor Signal Rainfall Departure: -2% Marathwada, parts of Madhya Maharashtra, North Interior Karnataka and Rayalseema are at risk. Poor Signal

PAST FORECAST PERFORMANCE 2012 2013 2014 Skymet Forecast 95% of LPA 103% of LPA 91% of LPA Actual Monsoon 93% of LPA 105% of LPA 88% of LPA

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