Fred Schmude StormWatch Manager ImpactWeather, Inc. Fred specializes in hurricane forecasting, severe thunderstorms, winter weather monitoring and forecasting and long-range monthly and seasonal forecasting. He holds a BS in Geology from Texas Tech and a BS in Meteorology from Texas A&M. Fred joined ImpactWeathers parent company as a meteorologist in Spring Weather Outlook May Update

ImpactWeather helps our clients worldwide operate safely, effectively and efficiently in all weather conditions.

Fred Schmude StormWatch Manager ImpactWeather, Inc. Fred specializes in hurricane forecasting, severe thunderstorms, winter weather monitoring and forecasting and long-range monthly and seasonal forecasting. He holds a BS in Geology from Texas Tech and a BS in Meteorology from Texas A&M. Fred joined ImpactWeathers parent company as a meteorologist in Spring Weather Outlook May Update

Worldwide weather forecasting and notification 24/7 Seasonal outlook forecasting Severe terrestrial weather monitoring and automated notification Offshore/marine forecasting year-round Customized weather websites Direct consultation with a meteorologist Business Continuity, Employee Resiliency and Response Plan Consulting Webinar Questions: More information (877)

Spring Weather Outlook for 2012 Worldwide water temperature trends (including El Niño risks and effects) Review of spring tornado and high wind reports Review of the April temperature & precipitation pattern May weekly and monthly forecast (find the most vulnerable severe risk areas) May, June and July projected flow pattern & T/P forecast (identify most vulnerable severe risk areas) Summer outlook, including a brief tropical outlook Soil moisture and drought outlooks for the spring Tropics Sneak Preview

Warming Water Developing El Niño? PDO Cold Phase Colder Water Small Negative IOD

Current (-0.1C) El Niño La Niña ~+1.3C...Moderate El Niño

El Niño La Niña

Warmer Water Enhances Thunderstorm Development Warmer Water Enhances Thunderstorm Development Upper air outflow enhance upper-level wind shear Upper air outflow enhance upper-level wind shear Effects of Warming Water in Eastern Tropical Pacific

Forecast ENSO Trends Initiation of EL Niño by early summer Likely to peak out in the early part of 2013 Likely to be moderate in intensity at about (+1.0 to +1.4C)

REVIEW Tornadoes, Temperature, Rainfall and Flow Pattern from January thru May 1, 2012

Average Trend Current # Average

Projected Precipitation Outlook for Apr-Jun, 2012 Elevated Severe Risk Area Elevated Severe Risk Area BEST CHANCE BEST CHANCE Mean Storm Track

Projection ~1500

Projection Current

MUCH ABOVE NORMAL! +8 to +16F MUCH ABOVE NORMAL! +8 to +16F

ABOVE NORMAL! +3 to +6F ABOVE NORMAL! +3 to +6F

Projected Temperature Outlook for April, 2012

WARMER North America April Temperature Anomalies

WET DRY WET

DRIER

Projected Precipitation Outlook for April, 2012

Lower Pressure Lower Pressure Lower Pressure Lower Pressure Higher Pressure Higher Pressure Higher Pressure Higher Pressure Higher Pressure Higher Pressure April Mean Flow Pattern

April Mean Flow Pattern/Temp Overlay

FORECAST

+4 to +8F -3 to -6F Mostly Dry Mostly Dry Mostly Dry Mostly Dry Mostly Dry Mostly Dry Weather Trends for May 8 th -14 th, 2012 STORMY UNSETTLED Near Normal Near Normal Near Normal +2 to +4F +3 to +6F -2 to -4F HEAVY RAIN & FLOODING RISK HEAVY RAIN & FLOODING RISK -1 to -3F Near Normal UNSETTLED Mostly Dry Mostly Dry

Weather Trends for May 15 th -21 st, 2012 Warmer Than Normal Warmer Than Normal Warmer Than Normal Cooler Than Normal Cooler Than Normal Near Normal STORMY UNSETTLED Mostly Dry Mostly Dry Mostly Dry Mostly Dry Mostly Dry Mostly Dry Warmer Than Normal Near Normal

Projected Temperature Outlook for May, 2012

Projected Precipitation Outlook for May, 2012

H H H H L L L L Mean Storm Track WARMER COOLER Enhanced Severe Weather Risk Projected Flow Pattern For May-July, 2012

Projected Temperature Outlook for May-Jul, 2012

Enhanced Severe Weather Risk Projected Precipitation Outlook for May-Jul, 2012

Projected Temperature Outlook for July-Sept, 2012

Projected Precipitation Outlook for July-Sept, 2012

El Niño COOLER WATER Monitor for Home Grown Storm Gulf/ W Car. Tropics Sneak Peek For 2012 Higher Westerly Wind Shear Likely Negative Factor Another Negative Factor Risk will be lower than normal for a TC strike However, some very memorable TCs have occurred during +ENSO events Preliminary estimates call for

Abnormally Dry (yellow) Moderate Drought (tan) Severe Drought (red) Exceptional Drought (dark red)

DROUGHT WET SOIL

Worldwide weather forecasting and notification 24/7 Seasonal outlook forecasting Severe terrestrial weather monitoring and automated notification Offshore/marine forecasting year-round Customized weather websites Direct consultation with a meteorologist Business Continuity, Employee Resiliency and Response Plan Consulting Webinar Questions: More information (877)