HOUSEHOLD INCOME AND EXPENDITURE SURVEYS IN THE PACIFIC REGION Pacific Statistics Methods Board, Nadi, Fiji, 30 October, 2018 Michael Sharp, Bertrand Buffiere, and Olivier Menaoeur, Statistics for Development Division

Purpose Invite the Pacific Statistics Methods Board (PSMB) to: Note the history of HIES in the Pacific region; Note the current regionally standardised HIES methodology; Note the main challenges in conducting HIES under the Pacific “regionally standardised” methodology; Note the HIES methodological experiment that is currently being conducted in RMI; and Endorse the recommendation for PMSB to review the results of the RMI HIES experiment at PMSB’s third meeting to be held in 2019 in order to make an informed recommendation on the optimal methodology to conduct HIES.

Introduction to HIES

HIES objective and use Multi-purpose and multi-user survey with the objective to: Update the household component of GDP Rebase the CPI Conduct poverty analysis Conduct general demographic and socioeconomic analysis More recently, conduct food security and nutrition oriented analysis Directly populate 17 of the 132 Pacific subset of SDG indicators (13%) Contributes data to an additional 6 indicators (17% of the total subset)

History of HIES in the Pacific region

History of HIES in the Pacific 70 HIES conducted since 1943 (Fig1) with 60% since MDG era Excluding Pitcairn, all PICTs conducted at least 1 HIES (Fig2) 3 PICTs with only 1 HIES 3 PICTs with most recent HIES pre-2010 All scheduled HIES in 2019 Desirable to have more, but costly (NSO, HH, TA provider, donor) Using data from 11 recent surveys, average cost is USD 340 per enumerated household, or USD 10 per capita. Economies of scale is achieved in larger PICTs where the costs is spread over a larger population and sampling fractions are relatively low. The call for more frequent production of highly disaggregated data presents an immense challenge for Small Island States.

The regionally standardised HIES methodology

Pacific standardised HIES Implemented in the Pacific since 2012 Developed under the guidance of a technical working group Standardised: Survey instruments Classifications Field operations schedule Data capture and processing system Reporting and data structure

HIES questionnaire Module 1 - Demographic information: demographic profile; activities last week; education; health; communication; and previous household members. Module 2 - Household expenditure: dwelling characteristics; dwelling tenure; utilities and communication; land and dwelling; goods and assets; vehicles; private travel; services; cash contribution to special occasions; provision of financial support; insurance and taxes; and loans. Module 3 - Individual expenditure: education; health; clothing; communication; luxury items; and alcohol, betel nut, kava and tobacco; (optional: deprivation).

HIES questionnaire Module 4 - Household and individual income: wages and salaries; agriculture and forestry; fishing, gathering and hunting, livestock and aquaculture; handicrafts and home processed foods; non-subsistence business; property, transfer income; and remittances and cash gifts. Two-week diary: cash expenditure on food and non-food items; cash expenditure on services; goods and services received for free; home produced items today (home consumption, to give away and to sell). Main methodological issues surround the use of the diary.

Field schedule Rolling 12-months sample (seasonality) Field teams: Supervisor (supervision and CAFE data entry) and two enumerators Two-week diary requires field teams to be in an EA for three-weeks 16 HIES rounds – main constraint Seven to eight visits per household per round Six to seven households per enumerator per round (~100 per enumerator in total)

Challenges with the regionally standardised HIES methodology

Methodological challenges Despite the regionally standardized HIES meeting the multi-user needs, there are a number of inherent methodological issues, including: High cost Apparent respondent and/or enumerator fatigue Diary versus recall Food away from home Food acquisition as a proxy for consumption Non-standard units Partakers Imputed rents and consumption of fixed assets

High cost

Fatigue Literacy Time poor Seven to eight enumerator visits recommended Diary “drop off” in transactions over the two- week diary period (ref: Fig) Well managed diary considered to be “gold standard”

Diary versus recall COICOP Division 2 (alcohol, tobacco and narcotics) May be underreporting in the diary as COICOP Division 2 is already captures in the modules, but clear differences in expenditure when comparing diary and recall data sources

Food away from home Food acquired and consumed away from the dwelling Anecdotally a significant calorie source for Pacific Islanders (feasts, takeaway) No dedicated section in HIES questionnaire (Tonga 2009 v Tonga 2015) Ref fig: Proportion of total food expenditure from COICOP Group 11.1 Solomon Islands “pocket money” 1,580 households (around 35 percent of sampled households) in the 2012 Solomon Islands HIES reported “pocket money” in the diary. This amounted to 5,860 transactions averaging SBD 41 per transaction and 6.7 percent of total cash expenditure reported in the diary. Whilst it’s possible that pocket money was used for transport and other non-food expenditure, it’s likely that a large proportion of pocket money was spent on food away from home.

Non-standard units of measurement Common methodological issue across all HIES (or its equivalent) Ref fig: Proportion of food items reported in NSU Statistical methods available, but need critical mass Market and producer surveys over time and geographical domain

Other methodological challenges Food acquisition as a proxy for estimating consumption Very high and very low food acquisition Home production for consumption today or total home production Opening and closing stocks (Consumption = opening stock + food acquisition – closing stocks) Partakers Food sharing is a major component of the Pacific culture Partakers not well captured to account for sharing of food in consumption estimates Imputed rents No baseline rental market House value and age not collected Consumption of fixed assets Age and value of durable goods not collected

The RMI HIES experiment

Acknowledgements

RMI HIES experiment Response to the challenges and commitment to produce high quality data Three main components: Testing new technology (CAPI) and backup protocols in small island states Inclusion of complementary survey modules New methods for the collection of consumption data

New technology CAPI (Survey Solutions software) of complex HIES questionnaire Electrification Internet connectivity (data backup)

Complementary survey modules Dynamic data and avoid need for stand-alone surveys Food away from home: recall and diary-based modules are being tested. Partakers: recall and diary-based modules are being tested. Labour module: newly designed module in accordance with the resolution concerning the International Classification of Status in Employment (ICSE). Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES): to measure experiences of moderate-to-severe food insecurity and to report against SDG indicator 2.1.2. Shocks: household exposure to shocks through adverse environmental, economic and social change. Disability: addition of the Washington Group six questions to identify vulnerable populations. Improved modules: enhanced health and fisheries modules and improved means to capture information to better estimate household consumption of fixed assets.

Improved methods for the collection of consumption data Diary v recall PAPI v CAPI Food away from home Partakers Does diary or recall produce more comprehensive consumption data and which implementation protocol will result in the efficient production of high quality consumption data?

Five experimental arms Recall CAPI: household members are asked to recall if they acquired and consumed food and non-food items in the last seven days; they are asked the number of partakers in each meal in the last seven days; and they are asked if the household members acquired food away from home in the last seven days. Responses are entered in the tablets (CAPI). Bounded recall CAPI: same as Recall CAPI, however the enumerator will visit the household seven days before conducting the recall interview to ask the household to try to remember what is acquired/consumed over the next seven day period leading up to the interview. Diary CAPI – high monitored: household keeps a 14-day diary of all food and non-food items that the household acquires each day (household); they are also asked to record if they acquired and consumed food away from home (individual); the enumerator will visit the household every second day to enter the diary data into the tablet and to ensure that the household is completing the diary comprehensively. Diary PAPI – high monitored: this is the same as Diary CAPI – high monitored, except the diary data is not entered into the tablet during the visit to the household; it is entered into a data entry system after each round; the enumerator will still visit the household every second day to ensure that the diary is being completed. Diary PAPI – low monitored: this is the same as Diary PAPI – high monitored, however the enumerator will only visit the household to drop the diary off on day one, then pick up the first week diary on day seven and drop the second week diary, then pick up the second week diary on day 14. This is a poorly managed diary without regular monitoring of the household to ensure the diary is being completed.

RMI HIES experiment – next steps Field work will finish in November and the results will be analysed and reported on up until April 2019. It is at this time when conclusions will be made as to the optimal methodology for conducting HIES in the Pacific region. In drawing of the conclusion, all data applications (e.g., for national accounts, CPI, poverty, nutrition and food security) will be taken into consideration to ensure that the new HIES methodology continues to meet its multi-user needs. The results, conclusion and recommendation will be presented to PMSB in 2019 for endorsement.

Recommendation Pacific Statistics Methods Board is invited to: Note the history of household income and expenditure surveys (HIES) in the Pacific region; Note the current regionally standardised HIES methodology; Note the key challenges in conducting HIES under the “regionally standardised” methodology in the Pacific region; Note the HIES methodological experiment that is currently being conducted in the Republic of the Marshall Islands (“the RMI HIES experiment”); and Endorse the recommendation for PMSB to review the results of the RMI HIES experiment at PMSB’s third meeting to be held in 2019 in order to make an informed recommendation to the Pacific Island countries and territories on the optimal methodology to conduct HIES.

Thank you