Examining Russian “Pre-Nuclear deterrence”

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Presentation transcript:

Examining Russian “Pre-Nuclear deterrence” Harrison Menke Menke007@live.missouristate.edu

Introduction Research Question: How will Russia seek to utilize long-range, non-nuclear weapons to manage escalation in the “pre-nuclear” phase?

Conceptual Foundations Russia understands nuclear weapons cannot be a panacea Kokoshin and Pre-Nuclear Deterrence Information Struggle

Goals, Targets, and Intentions Early Stage: Targets Military Hubs and C2 As Escalation Continues: Targets Shift to Civilian Politico-Economic Infrastructure Non-Nuclear De-Escalation?

Kremlin Approval: Capabilities New Strike Platforms Improved Missiles Leadership Views “…Russia has the will to use them [Russia’s non-nuclear deterrent] if it satisfies the national interests of our state and our people.” –V.V. Putin Far Left: Lada Grigorovich-class Yasen Buyan-M (Bottom) Demonstrate a Russian commitment to nonnuclear deterrenc

Naval Launch Point Coverage Yellow Rings: 1,300 km Red Rings: 3,000 km Below are nine maps depicting approximate range rings for an SS-N-30A launch platform (ship or submarine) operating in various areas of the world. The yellow and red rings depict 1,300km/700nm (conventional) and 3,000km/1,620nm (nuclear) ranges, respectively. The launch points chosen are not meant to suggest actual planned launch areas, but simply to provide a sense of LACM coverage. Russian reports suggest Kalibr cruise missiles could range between 1,500-3,000 km Kh-101 ALCM is reported to be around 5,000 km *Maps from 7 Fee Beneath the Keel, “The RF Navy vs Your ‘Critically Important Facilities,” March 29, 2015.

The Syrian Testing Ground Russian Cruise Missile Launches “…Russia has the will to use them [Russia’s non-nuclear deterrent] if it satisfies the national interests of our state and our people.” –V.V. Putin *Map partly from The Aviationist, “This Infographic Provides All the Details About the Russian Strategic Bomber Fleet Operations Over Syria,” Nov. 21, 2015.

Implications A New Coercive Toolkit Weakens Traditional Conventional-Nuclear Firebreaks Strategic Effects without Crossing the Nuclear Threshold Likely to Encourage Escalation and Crisis Instability