Elizabeth Noelle-Neumann The Spiral of Silence Elizabeth Noelle-Neumann

Neumann (1974) introduced the “spiral of silence” as an attempt to explain in part how public opinion is formed. She was attempting to explain why Germans in the l930s supported political positions that led to war and genocide.

The “Spiral of Silence” is based on three premises: 1) people have something almost like an instinct that allows them to know the prevailing public opinion, even without access to polls, or at least they think they know what others think. 2) people have a basic fear of isolation and almost instinctively know what behaviors will increase their likelihood of being socially isolated. 3) Out of fear of being isolated, people tend to avoid expressing minority views.

Why a Spiral? Noelle-Neumann argues that the effect spirals over time, because as the minority opinion is expressed less and less, increasingly those who hold it come to think no one else agrees with them, and may even try to talk themselves out of their own beliefs.

Mass media influences the spiral of silence in that the more mass media persuades people that their opinion is outlying, the more the spiral takes effect.

Polling and the “Spiral of Silence” The implications of this are that pollsters should not just ask about an individual’s own opinions. It is critical to ask what a person perceives to be the predominant view. People are hesitant to express a preference that they feel is generally unpopular, so the pollster needs to know what people THINK is the prevailing view.

The Spiral of Silence” theory has been criticized for ambiguity and methodological weakness. Noelle-Neumann backed her theories with some empirical research, but also with references to historical intellectuals such as Machiavelli, Martin Luther, J-J Rousseau, David Hume, John Locke. But criticism notwithstanding, her ideas are worth considering.

The Gulf War~An example? During the 1991 Gulf War U.S. support for the war was measured in a survey that asked about people’s opinions. Overall, respondents were clearly less supportive of the war than the popular support depicted by the media. But those who watched television seem to have developed the impression that the public supported the war, were more likely to support the war themselves.

Does it Matter that Noelle-Neumann worked as a Propagandist for the NSDAP? Christopher Simpson, professor of journalism at American University here in Washington, DC, published an article in the Journal of Communication , “Elisabeth Noelle-Neumann’s “Spiral of Silence” and the Historical Context of Communication Theory”. Simpson cited her pro-NSDAP writings. For example, in Das Reich in 1941 she had described the Chicago Daily News as a Jewish “wasps nest” and accused Jews of using “neutral camouflage” to disguise what she characterized as their monopoly of US advertising, films and newspapers.

Noelle-Neumann’s supporters responded by attempting, unsuccessfully, to persuade AU to deny tenure to Christopher Simpson. Her lawyers threatened Simpson with legal action if he continued to post documents on the internet that reproduced her documents from the Nazi period, though she did not not deny that she had written them. http://www1.american.edu/radiowave/noelle/noldir1.htm

Noelle claimed that her attacks against Jews published from 1937 to 1941 were an “alibi” to cover her real anti-Nazism, that she had no intention of harming Jews by her writings. She argued that she had never become a Nazi party member. Also she said that she had been dismissed from Das Reich in 1942 by Goebbels himself, because she had used a picture of Franklin Delano Roosevelt that was insufficiently repulsive.

Brief Bibliography http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/obituaries/article7097606.ece http://www.independent.co.uk/news/obituaries/elisabeth-noelle-neumann-pioneer-of-publicopinion-polling-and-market-research-1940766.html Christopher Simpson’s website http://www1.american.edu/radiowave/noelle/noelle.htm

Questions to Think About: Does the “Spiral of Silence” theory make ring true to you? What sort of experiment could you design to test it? Does Noelle-Neumann’s involvement with Hitler’s regime invalidate her ideas? Does her reaction to Simpson’s exposé invalidate her ideas?

Sources: The sites I’ve used for this PPt are indicated in various slides. I have not knowingly violated any copyright laws in putting this PPt together. My impression is that everything I used was in the public domain. I grudgingly admit that Wikipedia is quite good on this topic.