Effect of education on occupational position. Cross-national patterns of decline or stability in 2002-2016 Henryk Domański and Dariusz Przybysz Institute of Philosophy and Sociology at the Polish Academy of Sciences EUROPEAN SOCIAL SURVEY ROUND 8 „Poland and its European context: Continuity and Change” Warsaw, 21 February 2018

It would appear that in many advanced societies over recent decades the association between individuals educational qualifications and their class destinations has tended to weaken (cf. Breen and Luijkx 2004; Blossfeld 2008; Goldthorpe 2016; Bouchet-Valat et al. 2016).

Our presentation aims to determine three questions: To what extent effect of education on occupational position across European countries really declines? Are there some other tendencies in relationship between education and occupational position? Whether one can find cross-national patterns due to nation-based institutional differences that may explain them in terms of type of welfare state regime, law regulations, or so? These questions are of central interest for understanding of fundamental social stratification processes since this association governs the dynamics of occupational attainment over the life course. .

Concerning tendency to decline it is attributed to: over-education – the increasing supply of the higher educated is outstripping demand that results in ‘credentials inflation’ growing flexibilization of the labour market (i.e. part-time jobs, short-term contracts, stop-gap jobs, precarious jobs, etc.) and resulting from this growing looseness and unpredictability in the transition from education to employment changing strategy of recruitment to jobs and in rewarding employees - employers apply a range of other selection criteria than educational credentials. .

Our analysis deserves attention for 4 reasons: Contrary to the “decline” hypothesis also the ‘Increased Merit Selection’ hypothesis has been proposed (Jonsson 1993; Whelan and Layte 2002: 38) - which of them fits better? The decline was supported only in France, Germany, Poland, and in the UK – we examine in a number of countries.

Countries differ significantly with respect to educational systems, the nature of their employment relations, labor legislation, occupational structures, and job security – our task is to establish to what extent these country-based differences are reflected in the association between educational levels and class destinations. As regards effect of gender, we check whether (according to hypothesis of discrimination) occupational attainments of women more depend on education as compared to men – since men are more rewarded by non-meritocratic criteria and women have to overcome this drawback.

Variables: education We distinguished 3 categories which describe respondents’ level of education (based on ISCED): 1) Basic and lower secondary 2) Upper secondary 3) Tertiary and post-secondary

Variables: education Occupational position of respondent is defined in terms of EGP class scheme. We distinguished 6 categories: 1) Professionals and managers 2) Routine non−manuals 3) Petty bourgeoisie 4) Skilled manuals 5) Non-skilled manuals 6) Farmers We resticted our analysis to respondents aged 25 to 50 years

1. Basic and lower secondary 3. Tertiary and post-secondary Distribution of education and socio-occupational position Austria ESS1 (21-50 years) H\W 1. Basic and lower secondary 2. Upper secondary 3. Tertiary and post-secondary Professionals and managers 5,2% 12,1% 37,1% Routine non−manuals 40,0% 58,1% 55,0% Petty bourgeoisie 7,8% 8,4% 7,0% Skilled manuals 18,0% 0,6% Non-skilled manuals 23,5% 7,7% 0,2% Farmers 5,5% 5,3% 0,0% Total 100,0%

Effect of education on occupational position We used „uniform”difference model (Xie 1992),, which assumes that the form of the relationship between education and occupational position remains constant across time and is the same in all countries, but strength of this association could be different. Goodnes of fit: G2=3840,8 (p<0,0001); df=1674; BIC= ̶ 16059,1

1. Basic and lower secondary 3. Tertiary and post-secondary Interaction parameters of uniform difference model Austria ESS1 – reference category H\W 1. Basic and lower secondary 2. Upper secondary 3. Tertiary and post-secondary Professionals and managers 0,26 0,77 5,08 Routine non−manuals 0,56 0,99 1,81 Petty bourgeoisie 0,89 0,94 1,19 Skilled manuals 1,42 1,29 0,54 Non-skilled manuals 2,47 1,12 0,36 Farmers 2,24 0,97 0,46

1. Basic and lower secondary 3. Tertiary and post-secondary Interaction parameters of uniform difference model Belgium ESS1 H\W 1. Basic and lower secondary 2. Upper secondary 3. Tertiary and post-secondary Professionals and managers 0,261,09=0,23 0,771,09=0,75 5,081,09=5,87 Routine non−manuals 0,561,09=0,53 0,991,09=0,98 1,811,09=1,91 Petty bourgeoisie 0,891,09=0,87 0,941,09=0,93 1,191,09=1,22 Skilled manuals 1,421,09=1,47 1,291,09=1,32 0,541,09=0,51 Non-skilled manuals 2,471,09=2,67 1,121,09=1,13 0,361,09=0,33 Farmers 2,241,09=2,41 0,971,09=0,96 0,461,09=0,43 According to this model the general pattern of relationship in Belgium ESS1 is the same as in Austria ESS1, but the association is stonger in Belgium. Parameter which describe strength of association for Belgium=1,09.

Strength of association (effect of education on occupational position) ESS1 ESS2 ESS3 ESS4 ESS5 ESS6 ESS7 ESS8 Hungary 1,47 1,43 1,34 2,01 1,30 1,70 Bulgaria 1,67 1,53 1,36 Portugal 1,63 1,48 1,51 1,40 Croatia Slovenia 1,75 1,49 1,05 1,12 Slovakia 1,37 1,44 Italy 1,66 1,09 Poland 1,39 1,56 1,23 1,52 1,17 1,25 Czech Republic 2,07 1,57 0,98 0,72 0,85 0,96 Cyprus 1,38 1,18 0,78 Greece 1,55 1,16 1,00 Turkey 0,87 Austria 1,04 1,15 1,28 Luxembourg 1,14 1,07 Finland 1,01 0,99 Switzerland 0,90 0,89 1,32 1,27 0,84 0,83

Strength of association (effect of education on occupational position) ESS1 ESS2 ESS3 ESS4 ESS5 ESS6 ESS7 ESS8 Norway 0,87 0,93 0,94 0,95 1,09 1,04 1,17 Lithuania 0,86 1,05 Germany 1,08 1,01 0,91 1,16 0,81 0,83 France 1,13 1,03 0,64 Israel 0,79 0,97 1,27 Denmark 1,02 1,11 Belgium 1,15 1,06 0,82 0,75 0,89 Sweden 1,07 Ukraine 0,92 0,88 Spain 0,78 0,77 0,99 0,80 Estonia 0,73 Netherlands 0,67 0,84 Russia Iceland United Kingdom 0,66 0,71 0,41 0,58 0,61 Ireland 0,76 0,57 0,44 0,62

Strength of association (gender)

Strength of association (gender)

CONCLUSIONS   The main is that primary links of social stratification do not seem to be undermined. The logic of social stratification may not directly respond to developments in economy, educational systems, and labour markets.