Technology Assessment http://www.managementsupport.com

Outline Management of Technology Sociotechnical Change Technology Planning Technology Forecasting Managing Forecasting Methods and Issues Lifecycles Monitoring Tools for Trending Extrapolating Technological Trends Expert Opinion

Result of Technology’s Increasing Significance Technology assessment originally driven by concern regarding the negative effects of technology on the environment and society. now much more encompassing Technology forecasting assessment requires anticipation, therefore a need for technology forecasting.

Product Life Cycle 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 Years from Launch Profit Revenue (x100,000) Maximum Profit Maximum Sales Volume Withdrawn from market Sales Revenue (x1,000,000) Maturity 4 4 Innovation Growth Decline Profit 3 3 2 2 Sales Volume 1 1 Commercial launch Years from Launch

Impact/Technology Assessment It is the systematic study of the effects on society, that may occur when a technology is introduced, extended, or modified, with emphasis on the impacts that are unintended, indirect, or delayed. (Joseph Coates, 1976) It should be viewed by technology managers as professional obligation and social responsibility It’s results form the “big picture” concerns that should shape the context of technological planning

Forecasting-Technology Management Relationship Forecasting is intended to bring information to the technology management process Predicts possible technological changes that might affect corporate goals Provides useful information to decision makers The shape and format of forecasting are determined by Targeted audience (nation, organization, business unit, group of units…) Audience goals

Stages of Technological Innovation Stage 3: Verification laboratory experiment that confirms the validity of the proposed theory or design concept Stage 4: Laboratory Demonstration first primitive model of the technology concept in a useful form Stage 5: Field Trial full-scale approach or field trial that ultimately becomes the prototype or pilot-plant

Competitive Technology Lifecycle Critical Dimension Traditional technology Emergent technology Time Ex: Vacuum tubes v. transistors : Sail v. steamships

Fisher-Pry Model Substitution model Symmetrical around the 50% penetration point y(t) = 1/(1 + e-b(t-a)) y(t) = fraction of the potential market served by the new technology at time t a = the time the new technology reaches 50% of the total market b = rate of adoption

Technological Description/Foresight Technology description is a subset of technology foresight Technology foresight involves predicting and preparing for the opportunities and challenges that new technologies offer Noted authors Dr. van Wyk & Dr. Jonathan Litton

Choosing Experts Opinion Capture Technique Six factors are to consider in choosing a technique to capture experts opinion (Nelms and Porter, 1985): Logistics: resources largely determine the method Feedback: minimizing delay between successive feedback is desirable Communication medium: is a function of access to experts, resources, and time