Status on the implementation of the National Development Plan

Outline Introduction Overview PBO analysis and assessments undertaken Methodology Performance per outcome Analysis of the 2014-2019 MTSFs Analysis of the Programme of Action Report Analysis of the integration of budgets with plans Analysis of the alignment of the budget with the MTSF Reporting system for monitoring performance and expenditure Overview of the rate of integration Analysis of the incorporation of the MTSF into Annual Performance Plans In summary

Introduction The Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO) offers independent and objective advice and analysis to the Finance and Appropriations committees The PBO assists other committees depending on availability Part of the PBO’s mandate is policy analysis Currently policy analysis work focuses on the National Development Plan (NDP)

Overview The NDP provides proposals and actions from which 14 outcomes were derived The Medium Term Strategic Framework (MTSF) provides detailed 5- year implementation plans structured around the 14 NDP outcomes The MTSF is the mechanism through which all plans of government institutions should align to The Programme of Action report provides the progress on the implementation of the MTSF The NDP requires the incorporation of its proposals into the existing activities of departments

PBO analysis and assessments undertaken Analysis of the progress on the performance Assessment of the alignment of the 2014-2019 MTSF with the actions and objectives of the NDP Assessment of the alignment of the budget with the MTSF Assessment of the reporting systems for performance, monitoring and evaluation in government Analysis of the integration of the MTSF into Annual Performance Plans

Methodology Compared targets achieved in the POA report with the total number of targets set Matching actions of the MTSF with the actions and targets proposed by the NDP Compared the departments categorised within the budget function groups with the departments contributing to the MTSF outcomes Matching the MTSF performance indicators with the Annual Performance Plan programme performance indicators The objectives of the MTSF sub-outcomes were assessed for alignment with the “purposes” of budget programmes.

Methodology The source documents used for the analysis include: The Executive Summary - NDP 2030 - Our future - make it work, Chapters 3 to 15 The POA reports for the outcomes MTSF of the 14 outcomes The Medium Term Expenditure (MTEF) Technical Guideline for the preparation of expenditure estimates for the 2017 MTEF, National Treasury 2016/17 and 2017/18 Annual Performance Plans 2016/17 and 2017/18 Quarterly Performance Reports

Performance per outcome: 2014 - 2019 % achieved 2014/15 Number of Targets Targets achieved % achieved 2015/16 Outcome 1: Quality Basic Education 37% 59 15 25% Outcome 2: A Long and Healthy Life for All South Africans 45% 55 23 42% Outcome 3: All people in South Africa are and feel safe 29% 76 19 Outcome 4: Decent employment through inclusive economic growth 96 33 34% Outcome 5: A skilled and capable workforce to support an inclusive growth path 52% 61 38% Outcome 6: An efficient, competitive and responsive economic infrastructure network 46% 28 5 18% Outcome 7: Comprehensive rural development and land reform 0% 39 49% Outcome 8: Human Settlements 13% 26 13 50% Outcome 9: Responsive, accountable, effective and efficient developmental local government system 64% 16 62% Outcome 10: Protect and Enhance Our Environmental Assets and Natural Resources 62 32 Outcome 11: Create a better South Africa, contribute to a better and safer Africa in a better world 44% 40 29 73% Outcome 12: An efficient, effective and development- oriented public service 39% 46 27 59% Outcome 13: An inclusive and responsive social protection system 40% 7 2 Outcome 14: Nation Building and Social Cohesion Alignment and Progress 22

Analysis of the Programme of Action Report Is this a true reflection of progress on the implementation of the NDP? Technical challenges Quality of the performance indicators and targets Quality of the performance reporting on targets Incomplete reporting High number of performance indicators and targets Management challenges Change in strategic direction Lack of funding Reflects progress on the targets set for the entire 2014-2019 MTSF Technical challenges have a negative impact on the results

Analysis of the 2014-2019 MTSFs Does the 2014-2019 MTSF of government reflects the actions and objectives/targets outlined in the NDP? A comparison of the actions and targets, identified in the NDP with the key actions in the 2014 – 2019 MTSF showed a degree of alignment Shortcomings were identified Specific objectives/targets not reflected in the 2014-2019 MTSF were identified for inclusion in the next or following 5- year implementation plans If we want to monitor the implementation of the NDP the implementation plans should address the requirements of the NDP

Analysis of the alignment of the budget with the MTSF A comparison of the departments within a budget function group with those responsible for the outputs of the14 outcomes showed that: The budget function groups and the outcomes implementation groups are not always comprised of the same departments Concern is that departmental budgets are categorised within a budget function group without contributing to an outcome Changes have been made to the budget function groups since the analysis

Analysis of the alignment of budgets with plans - 2016/17

Reporting system for monitoring performance and expenditure National Development Plan (NDP) Medium Term Strategic Framework (MTSF) MTSF 14 Outcomes Clusters (14): Min MeCs and MinTechs Programme of Action Estimates of National Expenditure per Vote (National Budget) Technical Groups (18) Functional groups (9) Budget Programmes per Vote Funded by: Equitable Share and Conditional Grants In-year monitoring Reports including Conditional Grants Strategic and Annual Perfomance Plans of Votes per Programme Quartely Performance Reports Conditional grant reports on business plans

Overview of the rate of integration Outcome Responsible/Coordinating Department MTSF Indicator APP Indicator Percentage integrated Outcome 1: Quality Basic Education Department of Basic Education 40 10 25% Outcome 2: A Long and Healthy Life for All South Africans Department of Health 77 36 47% Outcome 3: All people in South Africa are and feel safe Justice, Crime Prevention and Security (JCPS) Cluster 93 58 62% Outcome 4: Decent employment through inclusive economic growth Department of Trade and Industry 21 36% Outcome 5: A skilled and capable workforce to support an inclusive growth path Department of Higher Education and Training 50 8 16% Outcome 6: An efficient, competitive and responsive economic infrastructure network Department of Economic Development 102 34 33% Outcome 7: Comprehensive rural development and land reform Department of Rural Development and Land Reform 39 12 31% Outcome 8: Human Settlements Department of Human Settlements 63 16 Outcome 9: Responsive, accountable, effective and efficient developmental local government system Department of Cooperative Governance and Traditional Affairs 72 22% Outcome 10: Protect and Enhance Our Environmental Assets and Natural Resources Department of Environmental Affairs 60 22 37% Outcome 13: An inclusive and responsive social protection system Department of Social Development 53% Outcome 14: Nation Building and Social Cohesion Department of Arts and Culture 66 20 30%

Analysis of the incorporation of the MTSF into Annual Performance Plans A comparison of the performance indicators in the MTSF with those presented in Annual Performance Plans (APPs) shows: Between 16 and 62 per cent of MTSF performance indicators are included in APPs (preliminary results) A comparison of the objectives in the MTSF with the purposes of budget programmes shows: Programme structures that requires revision to allow for the incorporation of the MTSF performance indicators are: Basic education Cooperative Governance and Traditional Affairs Energy Environmental Affairs Reporting on SIPs follow a process outside of the standard reporting system in government and the Programme of Action

In Summary The Programme of Action Report shows slow progress on the implementation of the NDP The MTSF responds to the proposals of the NDP Challenges with intergovernmental planning and budgeting Reporting on the NDP is outside of the standard reporting processes in government Slow integration of the NDP into standard planning and budgeting Suitability of budget programme structures for the integration of the NDP needs to be reviewed

South African PBO: Nelia Orlandi Mmapula Sekatane Thank You South African PBO: Nelia Orlandi Mmapula Sekatane