The Multiple Impacts of Unsustainable Charcoal Production and Trade in Somalia By Dr. Linda Ogallo

Presentation Outline Methods of Assessment and Analysis; Study area and challenges that triggered study interest; Results; Recommendations.

Methodology Remote sensing methodology for land cover change detection; Statistical analysis of primary data: Descriptive analysis; Multiple univariate and multivariate analyses; Analysis of projected climate;

Study Area What we now know about the study area is: General decreasing trend in the long rain AMJ (Gu) season; General increasing trend in the short rain SON (Deyr) season: Increase in occurrence of drought; Occurrence of floods though decreasing in frequency; Reports of export of charcoal in high volumes; Local use of charcoal as primary source of fuel;

Results from Land Cover Change Analysis

% Change CLASS 2000-93/5 2014-2000 2014-93/5 Water 7% -5% 2% Forest -45% -50% Woodland 29% -46% -17% Grassland 180% 122% 302% Shrubland -34% 81% 46% Bare-land/ Artificial land -43% 358% 315%

Community Behaviours and Attitudes 73% of respondents reported losses in livelihoods due to the impacts of climate ; 82% looked for alternative sources of livelihood, most resorted to charcoal production; 90% of community cut trees for household fuel consumption; 69% stated that they cut trees for charcoal export; 85% of pastoralists admitted to cutting trees for charcoal export; Most common reason stated for participating in charcoal production was to pay school fees;

Some community members do not understand the risks posed by the practice; 66% believe that selling charcoal is an important means of supporting the economy; But 64% of the respondents however agreed on the importance of environmental protection; 66% would actively participate to stop charcoal production;

Projected Climate under RCP 4.5 A recurrence of depressed rainfall associated with droughts is dominant in the near future; The above average rainfall usually associated with flooding are frequent and dominant between 2050 and 2070; An increasing temperatures in the near to long term future;

Recommendations Early warning and weather forecasting systems; Mainstreaming climate smart strategies into the development agenda; Strengthening inter-linkages between adaptation and development strategies that enable communities to build resilience; Holistic approach in addressing land degradation challenges that include direct and indirect drivers for charcoal production; A participatory and consultative process in developing and implementing plans; Strengthening environmental governance; Investment in institutional, human and technical capacity to help address the deforestation and climate risk issues; Finding alternative sources of livelihood and encouraging agro-forestry; Investment in research;

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