The Millennium Villages Project: a retrospective, observational, endline evaluation Shira Mitchell, PhD, Prof Andrew Gelman, PhD, Rebecca Ross, MSPH,

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The Millennium Villages Project: a retrospective, observational, endline evaluation Shira Mitchell, PhD, Prof Andrew Gelman, PhD, Rebecca Ross, MSPH, Joyce Chen, MSSW, Sehrish Bari, MPH, Uyen Kim Huynh, PhD, Matthew W Harris, MA, Sonia Ehrlich Sachs, MD, Prof Elizabeth A Stuart, PhD, Avi Feller, PhD, Susanna Makela, PhD, Prof Alan M Zaslavsky, PhD, Lucy McClellan, MIA, Seth Ohemeng-Dapaah, PhD, Patricia Namakula, MSc, Prof Cheryl A Palm, PhD, Prof Jeffrey D Sachs, PhD The Lancet Global Health Volume 6, Issue 5, Pages e500-e513 (May 2018) DOI: 10.1016/S2214-109X(18)30065-2 Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 license Terms and Conditions

Figure 1 Locations of the ten Millennium Villages covered in this evaluation The Lancet Global Health 2018 6, e500-e513DOI: (10.1016/S2214-109X(18)30065-2) Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 license Terms and Conditions

Figure 2 Matching results for Malawi The Lancet Global Health 2018 6, e500-e513DOI: (10.1016/S2214-109X(18)30065-2) Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 license Terms and Conditions

Figure 3 Classical and Bayesian impact estimates for individual outcomes and indices, averaged across countries Results are on the scale of SDs of the outcomes. Horizontal lines are 95% uncertainty intervals. (A) Classical estimates for individual outcomes and indices. (B) Classical estimates for outcome indices. (C) Bayesian estimates for outcome indices. (D) Classical estimates for outcome indices averaged across only the seven countries matched with Demographic and Health Survey data. The Lancet Global Health 2018 6, e500-e513DOI: (10.1016/S2214-109X(18)30065-2) Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 license Terms and Conditions

Figure 4 Classical (A) and Bayesian (B) impact estimates for outcome indices, by country Results are shown on the scale of SDs of the outcomes. Horizontal lines are uncertainty intervals. The Lancet Global Health 2018 6, e500-e513DOI: (10.1016/S2214-109X(18)30065-2) Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 license Terms and Conditions

Figure 5 Classical impact estimates for under-5 stunting (A) and under-5 mortality (B) Results are proportions for under-5 stunting and deaths per 1000 livebirths for under-5 mortality. Horizontal lines are 95% uncertainty intervals. The Lancet Global Health 2018 6, e500-e513DOI: (10.1016/S2214-109X(18)30065-2) Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 license Terms and Conditions

Figure 6 Classical estimates of target attainment, averaged across countries Results are shown on the scale of SDs of the outcomes. Horizontal lines are 95% uncertainty intervals. The Lancet Global Health 2018 6, e500-e513DOI: (10.1016/S2214-109X(18)30065-2) Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 license Terms and Conditions

Figure 7 Estimated on-site spending in the MV1s On-site spending is shown in 2005 US$, adjusted with the US Consumer Price Index.64 (A) Total on-site spending by site. (B) On-site spending by stakeholder, averaged across sites. (C) Project on-site spending by sector, averaged across sites. The Lancet Global Health 2018 6, e500-e513DOI: (10.1016/S2214-109X(18)30065-2) Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 license Terms and Conditions