Changing Precipitation Statistics in the West, and Evidence of Frequency of Recurrence from Paleoclimatic Streamflow Reconstructions Alan F. Hamlet Anthony.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Ancient trees, climate models, and the future of drought in western Colorado Jeff Lukas - Western Water Assessment CIRES, University.

Advertisements

Alan F. Hamlet Eric P. Salathé Matt Stumbaugh Se-Yeun Lee Seshu Vaddey U.S. Army Corps of Engineers JISAO Climate Impacts Group Dept. of Civil and Environmental.

Alan F. Hamlet, Nathalie Voisin, Dennis P. Lettenmaier, David W. Pierce, Tim Barnett Center for Science in the Earth System Climate Impacts Group and Department.

Alan F. Hamlet Anthony L. Westerling Tim P. Barnett Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts Group Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering.

Dennis P. Lettenmaier Alan F. Hamlet JISAO Center for Science in the Earth System Climate Impacts Group and Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering.

Alan F. Hamlet Andy Wood Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO Center for Science in the Earth System Climate Impacts Group and Department of Civil and Environmental.

Alan F. Hamlet Andy Wood Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO Center for Science in the Earth System Climate Impacts Group and Department of Civil and Environmental.

Alan F. Hamlet Nate Mantua Todd Mitchell JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts Group Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Washington ENSO Transition.

Alan F. Hamlet, Phil Mote, Martyn Clark, Dennis P. Lettenmaier Center for Science in the Earth System Climate Impacts Group and Department of Civil and.

Paleo-reconstruction of summer streamflow and seasonal uncertainties using the VIC hydrologic model Eric Lutz Alan Hamlet Jeremy Littell JISAO CSES Climate.

Alan F. Hamlet Andy Wood Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO Climate Impacts Group and the Department of Civil Engineering University of Washington September,

Alan F. Hamlet Andy Wood Nathalie Voisin David Pierce Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO Climate Impacts Group and Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering.

Optimized Flood Control in the Columbia River Basin for a Global Warming Scenario 1Dept. of Civil and Env. Engineering, UW 2CSES Climate Impacts Group,

Alan F. Hamlet Se-Yeun Lee Kristian Mickelson Marketa McGuire Elsner JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts Group Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering University.

Recap of Water Year 2007 Hydrologic Forecast and Forecasts for Water Year 2008 Alan F. Hamlet Andrew W. Wood Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts.

Dennis P. Lettenmaier Alan F. Hamlet JISAO Climate Impacts Group and the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Washington July,

Alan F. Hamlet Anthony L. Westerling Tim P. Barnett Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts Group Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering.

Declines in mountain snowpack Philip Mote, Alan Hamlet, Dennis Lettenmaier University of Washington With thanks to NRCS and Iris Stewart ftp://ftp.atmos.washington.edu/philip/SNOWPAPER/

Alan F. Hamlet Dennis P. Lettenmaier Center for Science in the Earth System Climate Impacts Group and Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering.

Recap of Water Year 2007 Hydrologic Forecast and Forecasts for Water Year 2008 Alan F. Hamlet Andrew W. Wood Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts.

Alan F. Hamlet Marketa McGuire Elsner Ingrid Tohver Kristian Mickelson JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts Group Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering University.

Seasonal outlooks for hydrology and water resources: streamflow, reservoir, and hydropower forecasts for the Pacific Northwest Andy Wood and Alan Hamlet.

Alan F. Hamlet Andy Wood Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO Climate Impacts Group and the Department of Civil Engineering University of Washington September,

Alan F. Hamlet Andy Wood Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO Climate Impacts Group and the Department of Civil Engineering University of Washington September,

Alan F. Hamlet Anthony L. Westerling Tim P. Barnett Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts Group Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering.

Hydrologic trends in the West Philip Mote Climate Impacts Group University of Washington Alan Hamlet, Martyn Clark, Dennis Lettenmaier With thanks to Dave.

Alan F. Hamlet Se-Yeun Lee Kristian Mickelson Marketa McGuire Elsner JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts Group Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering University.

Alan F. Hamlet Philip W. Mote Martyn Clark Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO/SMA Climate Impacts Group and Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering.

Alan F. Hamlet Andy Wood Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO Climate Impacts Group and the Department of Civil Engineering University of Washington September,

Alan F. Hamlet Andrew W. Wood Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO Center for Science in the Earth System Climate Impacts Group and Department of Civil and Environmental.

Annotated and Abbreviated Core Presentation

Alan F. Hamlet, Philip W. Mote, Nate Mantua, Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts Group Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering University.

Alan F. Hamlet Philip W. Mote Martyn Clark Dennis P. Lettenmaier Center for Science in the Earth System Climate Impacts Group and Department of Civil and.

Alan F. Hamlet, Philip W. Mote, Nate Mantua, Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts Group Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering University.

Alan F. Hamlet, Philip W. Mote, Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts Group Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Washington.

Alan F. Hamlet, Nathalie Voisin, Dennis P. Lettenmaier, David W. Pierce Center for Science in the Earth System Climate Impacts Group and Department of.

Introduction 1. Climate – Variations in temperature and precipitation are now predictable with a reasonable accuracy with lead times of up to a year (

Retrospective Evaluation of the Performance of Experimental Long-Lead Columbia River Streamflow Forecasts Climate Forecast and Estimated Initial Soil Moisture.

Alan F. Hamlet, Philip W. Mote, Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts Group Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Washington.

Long-term climate and water cycle variability and change Dennis P. Lettenmaier Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Washington.

Dr. Alan F. Hamlet JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts Group Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Washington 21st Century Water Management:

Sources of Skill and Error in Long Range Columbia River Streamflow Forecasts: A Comparison of the Role of Hydrologic State Variables and Winter Climate.

Assessing the Influence of Decadal Climate Variability and Climate Change on Snowpacks in the Pacific Northwest JISAO/SMA Climate Impacts Group and the.

Hydrologic Forecasting Alan F. Hamlet Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts Group Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of.

Alan F. Hamlet Andy Wood Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO Center for Science in the Earth System Climate Impacts Group and the Department.

Alan F. Hamlet, Philip W. Mote, Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts Group Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Washington.

UBC/UW 2011 Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium Friday, September 30, 2011 DIAGNOSIS OF CHANGING COOL SEASON PRECIPITATION STATISTICS IN THE WESTERN.

Alan F. Hamlet, Philip W. Mote, Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts Group Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Washington.

Alan F. Hamlet, Philip W. Mote, Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts Group Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Washington.

Estimating Changes in Flood Risk due to 20th Century Warming and Climate Variability in the Western U.S. Alan F. Hamlet Dennis P. Lettenmaier.

Hydrologic Implications of 20th Century Climate Variability and Global Climate Change in the Western U.S. Alan F. Hamlet, Philip W. Mote, Dennis P. Lettenmaier.

(April, 2001-September, 2002) JISAO Climate Impacts Group and the

Late 20th Century Precipitation Variability in the Western U. S

Hydrologic implications of 20th century warming in the western U.S.

Hydrologic Implications of 20th Century Warming in the Western U.S.

Hydrologic Implications of 20th Century Warming in the Western U.S.

Hydrologic ensemble prediction - applications to streamflow and drought Dennis P. Lettenmaier Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering And University.

2006 Water Resources Outlook for Idaho and the Western U.S.

Trends in Runoff and Soil Moisture in the Western U.S

Hydrologic Forecasting

Long-Lead Streamflow Forecast for the Columbia River Basin for

Effects of Temperature and Precipitation Variability on Snowpack Trends in the Western U.S. JISAO/SMA Climate Impacts Group and the Department of Civil.

Alan F. Hamlet Andrew W. Wood Dennis P. Lettenmaier

Climate Change in the Pacific Northwest

Long-Range Hydropower Forecasts for the Columbia River, Colorado River, and Sacramento/San Joaquin Systems Alan F. Hamlet, Andrew Wood, Nathalie Voisin.

Alan F. Hamlet Andrew W. Wood Dennis P. Lettenmaier

Hydrologic Changes in the Western U.S. from

Evaluating Recent 20th Century Changes in Cool Season Precipitation and Hydropower Variability in the Western U.S. in the Context of Paleoclimatic Reconstructions.

2006 Water Resources Outlook for the Columbia River Basin

Alan F. Hamlet, Andrew W. Wood, Dennis P. Lettenmaier,

Presentation transcript:

Changing Precipitation Statistics in the West, and Evidence of Frequency of Recurrence from Paleoclimatic Streamflow Reconstructions Alan F. Hamlet Anthony L. Westerling Tim P. Barnett Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts Group Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Washington Scripps Institute of Oceanography School of Engineering, University of California, Merced

Cool Season Precipitation Explains Most of the Variability in Annual Flow in the PNW and CA R2 = 0.83 Relationship Between Annual Flow and Cool Season Precip. Columbia River R2 = 0.91 Relationship Between Annual Flow and Cool Season Precip. Sacramento River

Cool Season Precip Explains Most of the Variability in Annual Flow in the CRB, but the Summer Monsoon Also Plays a Role R2 = 0.56 Relationship Between Annual Flow and Cool Season Precip. Colorado River R2 = 0.18 Relationship Between Annual Flow and Warm Season Precip. Colorado River

Regionally Averaged Cool Season Precipitation Anomalies

Regionally Averaged Warm Season Precipitation Anomalies

PNW SSJ CRB GB 1916-1946 mean (mm) 574.7 443.9 174.7 172.2 Std deviation 88.8 100.1 30.6 23.6 CV 0.15 0.23 0.17 0.14 lag 1auto corr -0.15 0.06 0.11 0.60 trend (% per decade) -1.1 6.9 -3.5 3.7 1947-1976 640.3 477.1 168.6 180.7 84.4 99.3 34.0 23.9 0.13 0.21 0.20 -0.42 0.12 -0.29 1.5 2.8 3.8 -0.1 1977-2003 594.3 488.1 190.8 185.3 126.2 141.9 50.8 41.4 0.29 0.27 0.22 0.46 4.2 2.4 -9.7 -5.1

PNW SSJ CRB GB 1916-1946 mean (mm) 574.7 443.9 174.7 172.2 Std deviation 88.8 100.1 30.6 23.6 CV 0.15 0.23 0.17 0.14 lag 1auto corr -0.15 0.06 0.11 0.60 trend (% per decade) -1.1 6.9 -3.5 3.7 1947-1976 640.3 477.1 168.6 180.7 84.4 99.3 34.0 23.9 0.13 0.21 0.20 -0.42 0.12 -0.29 1.5 2.8 3.8 -0.1 1977-2003 594.3 488.1 190.8 185.3 126.2 141.9 50.8 41.4 0.29 0.27 0.22 0.46 4.2 2.4 -9.7 -5.1

Severe Multi-Year Drought Impacts Associated with Changing Precipitation Statistics Severe 8-Year Drought in the Colorado Basin and Southwest Unprecedented 5-year drought in Idaho Current severe multi-year drought in California (following a severe extended drought in the 1990s).

Simulated Changes in System Wide Energy Production in the Western U.S. Correlation: CRB-SSJ = 0.07 CRB-PNW = 0.08 SSJ-PNW = 0.36 Correlation: CRB-SSJ = 0.14 CRB-PNW = -0.14 SSJ-PNW = 0.06 Correlation: CRB-SSJ = 0.73 CRB-PNW = 0.51 SSJ-PNW = 0.65 Fig 7 Annual hydropower production has followed suit. These results suggest reduced opportunity for conjunctive management of the West’s hydropower resources in recent decades.

Long-Term Comparison of Annual Flow Records from Observations and Paleo Reconstructions PNW: Observed (naturalized) annual flow in the Columbia River at The Dalles, OR 1858-1877 (reconstructed from observed peak river stage) 1878-2003 (naturalized from observed monthly records) CA: Reconstructed combined annual flow in the Sacramento/San Joaquin basin from tree-ring records. (Overlapping period 1858-1977) (Meko, D.M., 2001: Reconstructed Sacramento River System Runoff From Tree Rings, Report prepared for the California Department of Water Resources, July) Colorado River Basin: Reconstructed annual flow in the Colorado River at Lees Ferry, AZ from tree ring records. (Woodhouse, C.A., S.T. Gray, and D.M. Meko, 2006: Updated Streamflow Reconstructions for the Upper Colorado River Basin, Water Resources Research, Vol. 42, W05415)

All three metrics high together Changes in Streamflow Variability from Combined Paleo Reconstructions (black) and VIC Simulations (red) of Annual Flow All three metrics high together

Changes in Streamflow Variability from Combined Paleo Reconstructions (black) and VIC Simulations (red) of Annual Flow for the SSJ and Colorado Basins Only ~1580 ~1780 ~1980

Conclusions Cool season precipitation is a major driver of annual river flow and hydropower production in the Western U.S. Substantial and persistent changes in cool season precipitation variability have emerged over the West since about 1975, including increased CV, within-region persistence, and inter-regional correlation. Long-term streamflow reconstructions show that the current changes in variability are very unusual in the context of natural variations over the last 150 years or so, but have probably occurred before in about 1580, and again in about 1780 (almost exactly once every 200 years!) Is there a component of the most recent long-term droughts that is also related to global warming?