Public Opinion Belief & Behaviors

Why do we measure the public opinion? Beliefs & Behaviors Public Opinion Why do we measure the public opinion?

Public Opinion Polling Beliefs & behaviors

Public Opinion What is it? Public Affairs Public Opinion All the issues that concern the public at large Public Opinion The collective view of the public about the public affairs The desires, wants, and thinking of the majority of people

Public Opinion Why? Why is it measured? Someone wants the answer to a political question The politicians want to know how the people (voters) feel about an issue so they can respond The people want to know how their own opinions compare to others It’s easy for the media to report

Public Opinion Public Opinion Impacted by Mass Media History Makeup of the govt Opinion Leaders Someone who has a tremendous amount of influence over the opinions of others, typically media figures

Polling Process Beliefs & behaviors

Public Opinion Polling Process Steps in the Polling Process The universe is the group of people you are trying to learn about Define the Universe The universe is too big to be able to ask all of them the questions Ex: Americans, likely voters, women, WSHS students

Can use a random sample of a quota sample Public Opinion Polling Process Steps in the Polling Process The sample is the small number of people you will ask that will represent the universe Create a Sample You can ask everyone in the sample and assume their answers would match those of the universe Can use a random sample of a quota sample

The larger the sample, the more accurate the poll will likely be Public Opinion Why? Sample The sample selected will have the greatest impact on the reliability of the poll The larger the sample, the more accurate the poll will likely be Random Sample Quota Sample All people in the universe have an equal chance of being chosen for the sample Efforts are made to make the demographics of the sample match the demographics of the universe

Develop Interview Questions Public Opinion Polling Process Steps in the Polling Process The best questions for measurement would be multiple choice – to get some uniformity in responses Develop Interview Questions The wording of the questions is critical. Biased questions will lead to skewed answers

Public Opinion Polling Process Steps in the Polling Process Conduct poll using a method called the “straw poll” Conduct Interviews Ask the exact same questions to each person in the same, in the same order Analyze the Data Look at all the responses – What conclusions can be drawn?

Public Opinion Polling Process Steps in the Polling Process Based on your data, what have you learned about the universe? Present the findings The point of doing the poll is to share the conclusions with others

Problems with Polling Beliefs & behaviors

Public Opinion Problems Possible Problems with the results of a Public Opinion Poll The questions can be leading – worded in a biased manner to skew answers People don’t always answer honestly The samples can result in answers that don’t represent the universe Polls have typically been done using “land lines” skewing answers toward older people

Public Opinion Sampling Error Sampling Error The measure of the validity of the results of a poll A larger random sample will result in a smaller sampling error Generally a sampling error of +/- 3 is the sign of a good poll Sampling error tells you how accurate the pollsters expect the data to be Take the number reported and then add and subtract the sample error to see the actual range

Public Opinion Sampling Error This can mean… Sampling Error Clinton 43% Trump 42% Clinton wins a close one Clinton 47.5% Trump 37.5% Clinton wins a landslide Clinton 38.5% Trump 46.5% Trump wins This poll isn’t actually very useful. Sampling Error

Public Opinion Problems Exit Polls Taken during the election day so media outlets can report the election as fast as possible Agencies send pollsters to polling locations and they stop every few voters and ask them how they voted, why, and their demographics Here there are more problems with people not responding, or not responding truthfully Reporting exit polls at 7pm EST can impact voters on the West Coast whose polls are still open for 3 hours

Good polls include descriptions of their methodologies Public Opinion Exit Polls 2016 Exit Polls Good polls include descriptions of their methodologies

Exit polls ask demographics so we can predict patterns in the future Public Opinion Exit Polls 2016 Exit Polls Exit polls ask demographics so we can predict patterns in the future

Public Opinion Exit Polls 2016 Exit Polls

Public Opinion Exit Polls

Public Opinion Exit Polls

Public Opinion Exit Polls

Public Opinion Exit Polls

Bigly Ideas Beliefs & Behaviors

History Wrap Up Polling Process Straw Polls Exit Polls Problems with Polls Focus on these things: