Effects of underwater habitat quality on the top predator Baltic cod and its food web interactions and Baltic fisheries! Barbara Bauer, V. Bartolino, M.

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Presentation transcript:

Effects of underwater habitat quality on the top predator Baltic cod and its food web interactions and Baltic fisheries! Barbara Bauer, V. Bartolino, M. Casini, A. Hoff, H. E. M. Meier, P. Margoński, B. Müller-Karulis, A. Orio, M. Rahikainen, S. Saraiva, J. Warzocha, J. Kownacka, J. Steenbeek and M. T. Tomczak

Ongoing efforts for nutrient load reductions to reduce eutrophication

Indirect consequences?

dynamic spatial food web model: Ecospace Methods 3 nutrient load scenarios regional ocean model: RCO-SCOBI dynamic spatial food web model: Ecospace - Agricultural expansion BSAP REF time-series of maps O2, salinity, temperature... climate change A1B (IPCC) Scenarios run 2004-2098, results: avg. 2088-2098

increasing nutrient loads Results: drivers BSAP REF AgrExp Bottom O2 concentration (ml/l) Cod Reproductive Volume (km3) Phytoplankton biomass in the water column (t/km2) increasing nutrient loads

Results: fish distributions max.value of stock BSAP REF AgrExp Cod benefit from higher O2 concentrations under low nutrient loads Flounder - benefits from increased productivity under high nutrient loads. - negatively related to cod Sprat Herring distribution least affected by nutrient loads: complex interactions among various factors increasing nutrient loads

Results: fish distributions max.value of stock BSAP REF AgrExp Cod benefit from higher O2 concentrations under low nutrient loads Flounder - benefits from increased productivity under high nutrient loads. - negatively related to cod Sprat Herring distribution least affected by nutrient loads: complex interactions among various factors increasing nutrient loads

Results: fishing efforts increasing nutrient loads Results: fishing efforts mid-size (24-40 m) demersal trawlers BSAP REF AgrExp small (<12 m) passive gears Relative effort (compared to avg. 2004) mid-size pelagic trawlers widely spread fishing effort: many similarly profitable fishing grounds small areas of intense fishing

Conclusion Nutrient load management has substantial consequences for future locations of fishing grounds. The scenario assuming the lowest nutrient loads substantially increased the area suitable for cod -> potential fishing grounds physical oceanography bio-geochemistry spatial and trophic ecology bioeconomics

Thank you!