The use of ensemble information for medium range forecasts at the Austrian Meteorological Service Mag. Christian Csekits Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie.

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Presentation transcript:

The use of ensemble information for medium range forecasts at the Austrian Meteorological Service Mag. Christian Csekits Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik (ZAMG) Tel.: ++43 1 36026/2302 oder /2311 Fax: ++43 1 36026/73 Email: christian.csekits@zamg.ac.at Internet: http://www.zamg.ac.at Mag. Harald Seidl Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik (ZAMG) Tel.: ++43 1 36026/2394 oder /2311 Fax: ++43 1 36026/73 Email: harald.seidl@zamg.ac.at Internet: http://www.zamg.ac.at

* Plans for the near future Outlook EMS Conference, Dublin, 4th to 8th of September 2017 31.12.2018 * Motivation * Objectives * First results * Plans for the near future

In previous years we used a lot of probabilistic info Motivation EMS Conference, Dublin, 4th to 8th of September 2017 31.12.2018 In previous years we used a lot of probabilistic info Without knowing the weather scenarios behind

confidence/uncertainty of forecast Objectives EMS Conference, Dublin, 4th to 8th of September 2017 31.12.2018 Provide EPS weather scenarios from two different algorithms to the operational forecasters confidence/uncertainty of forecast Extend the forecasting period (7 to 10 days ahead) support for decision makers, e.g. event organisers Objective estimation of likelihood of severe weather phenomena weather warning system Likelihood Impact 

Improvement of quality of forecasts and severe weather warnings Objectives EMS Conference, Dublin, 4th to 8th of September 2017 31.12.2018 Improvement of quality of forecasts and severe weather warnings Development of new products for forecasters and costumers

Operational EPS Cluster System at ZAMG First Results EMS Conference, Dublin, 4th to 8th of September 2017 31.12.2018 Operational EPS Cluster System at ZAMG

uncertainty of the forecast First Results EMS Conference, Dublin, 4th to 8th of September 2017 31.12.2018 Hungarian Clustering System, ECMWF Clustering System and ECMWF deterministic run for the next 10 days uncertainty of the forecast display two different runs from one EPS system jumpiness of the EPS Number of members in each cluster is shown Focus on scenarios with severe weather phenomena

Questionnaire to forecasters: July 2016 to February 2017 First Results EMS Conference, Dublin, 4th to 8th of September 2017 31.12.2018 Questionnaire to forecasters: July 2016 to February 2017 * reliability of EPS systems (number of clusters, different scenarios, dispersion, etc.) ECMWF system better Equal Hungarian system better

Forecasts 10 days ahead: feasibility of spread in ECMWF system First Results EMS Conference, Dublin, 4th to 8th of September 2017 31.12.2018 Forecasts 5 days ahead: feasibility of spread in both systems equal and good Forecasts 10 days ahead: feasibility of spread in ECMWF system better than in Hungarian system Reason: Clustering in Hungarian system done on day 5, ECMWF system has 4 different Clustering time steps

Plans for the near future EMS Conference, Dublin, 4th to 8th of September 2017 31.12.2018 Display the standard deviation of each cluster estimate the spread within each cluster permanent objective verification of both Clustering systems quality of the EPS systems Clustering in Hungarian system on day 7 improve performance for 10-days forecast extend investigations to forecasts for day 11 to day 14

Thank You very much for Your attention! Any questions??? 31.12.2018 Folie 11 EMS Conference, Dublin, 4th to 8th of September 2017 31.12.2018 Thank You very much for Your attention! Any questions???