The HSR Tipping Point Background and Context Presented by Al Engel, P.E APTA HSR Policy Forum December 2, 2015 APTA Offices Al Engel Consulting December 2, 2015

The thought leaders On the Question What will be the tipping point for the U.S. to commit to a high performance intercity passenger rail policy and program? Robert Vanderclute, Senior Vice President – Association of American Railroads; Ken Orski, Transport Policy Consultant Jim Mathews, President & CEO – National Association of Railroad Passengers Martin Pietrucha, Director, Larson Transportation Institute - Penn State University Anthony Perl, Ph.D.; Professor - Simon Fraser University Roy Kienitz, Infrastructure Policy and Financing Consultant Katherine Kortum, Ph.D; Program Officer -Transportation Research Board Al Engel Consulting December 2, 2015

Tipping point Ideas put forward at Speedlines rountable 9/25/14 When it is recognized by our leaders that high speed rail is a proper public investment that cannot be funded solely from the fares paid by riders just as is the case for highways, airports and transit systems When we have a successful demonstration project in the U.S. Economic and Demographic trends will tip the scales toward a national program but it will be a long process. When a clear consensus on benefits is reached; in the U.S. there are still mixed messages. One good project needs to be built to convince a skeptical public.  The U.S. will adopt HSR when all other competing alternatives have been thoroughly studied and set aside.  A national program will grow out of the various regional initiatives being taken, much like the National Interstate Highway which took many decades to evolve. Al Engel Consulting December 2, 2015

Growth of High Speed Rail Lines Since 1964 Explosive Global Growth of High Speed Rail Al Engel Consulting December 2, 2015

Global hsr Mileage Sept. 25, 2014 Nov. 2015 14,257 miles in operation 20,147 (12,215 in China alone) 7,922 miles in construction 10,863 11,702 miles planned 21,862 33,881 miles total in 2025 52,872 Updated Nov 1, 2015; Source: UIC Al Engel Consulting December 2, 2015

Countries Operating, constructing and Planning high-speed rail systems Updated Nov 1, 2015; Source: UIC Al Engel Consulting December 2, 2015

Who rides High speed rail? (UIC 2013 Statistics) 1.150 Billion riders annually → 485 Million in China → 300 Million in Japan → 125 Million in France → 240 Million rest of world 15 Billion total riders since 1964 Al Engel Consulting December 2, 2015

Thank you al@alengel.com Useful Sites: http://www.uic.org/highspeed Credits: The organizations who generously provided Information and Illustrations used for this presentation include but are not limited to the following organizations: The Union of International Railways (UIC) AMTRAK French National Railroad (SNCF) Alstom Corporation Siemens Corporation Japan East Railway Central Japan Railway Useful Sites: http://www.uic.org/highspeed http://www.apta.com/RESOURCES/HOTTOPICS/HIGHSPEEDRAIL/PAGES/DEFAULT.ASPX http://www.hsr.ca.gov/ http://nec.amtrak.com/high-speed-rail http://necfuture.com/ Al Engel Consulting December 2, 2015