European Climate Assessment & Dataset

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Presentation transcript:

European Climate Assessment & Dataset Judging homogeneity of daily series Fourth seminar for homogenization Budapest, 6-10 October 2003 Janet Wijngaard, KNMI, the Netherlands

Topics ECA&D project Approach to homogeneity Results, Conclusions

ECA&D project data analysis focusing on observed changes in extremes gather daily series of observations at meteorological stations in Europe and the Middle East quality control and homogeneity analysis of the series dissemination of data and analyses results

Current participation Most data from 1900 up to 2001 More than 200 stations Tmin, Tmax, Tmean, precipitation amount, pressure Success is afhankelijk van deelname van de participanten!

Trend analysis of extremes requires: A dense, high-resolution, accurate and consistent dataset

Method Homogenization of daily series Instead: labelling of series -> confidence for trend and variability analysis

Two-step approach Four homogeneity tests applied to ECA dataset to identify potential inhomogeneities in annual resolution testing variables representative for the daily resolution Grouping of results -> overall classification

Homogeneity tests and variables Tests (absolute): SNHT Buishand Range Pettitt Von Neumann Ratio Variables: precipitation: number of wet days temperature: mDTR and vDTR (annual mean of absolute day-to-day differences of DTR)

vDTR DTRi: Diurnal temperature Range for day i in a specific year M: number of days in the year

Classification Labels: Useful (0/1 tests significant) Doubtful (2 tests significant) Suspect (3/4 tests significant)

Station Groningen (NL) 1948: change of observation hut 1951: relocation 1959: change in sensor height

Station Groningen (NL) Buishand Range, Pettitt and Von Neumann significant -> ‘suspect’

Temperature 1946-1999 mDTR vDTR ->54% ‘suspect’, breaks (partly) supported by metadata

Precipitation 1946-1999 Paper: International Journal of Climatology, Number of wet days Paper: International Journal of Climatology, May, 2003 -> 10% ‘suspect’

Conclusions most severe step-wise breaks are detected most severe step-wise breaks are detected metadata support for detected breaks essential no homogenizing of daily series labelling system good basis for series selection in trend analysis

And… further investigations to test homogeneity on daily basis further investigations to test homogeneity on daily basis MASH method used for homogenization on monthly ECA&D series

More info at: http://www.knmi.nl/samenw/eca