Impact of observations on Bureau of Meteorology Systems

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Presentation transcript:

Impact of observations on Bureau of Meteorology Systems Peter Steinle, Bob Seaman, John LeMarshall, Yi Xiao, …. (A) Australian upper air stations 1994-2007 (B) AMV’s & ACCESS 4dVAR

Impact of Aust. mainland upper air stations on NWP wind analyses Seaman, (2007), AMM Impact on analyses Difference (ms-1) with & without individual soundings Ranking / Relative impact overcomes system changes Divide into 4 ~equal groups each analysis Changes in ranking due to Observing schedules Changes in amount & use of other data (e.g. satellites) Started in 1994 Also have data for SYNOP, BUOY etc. (Seaman, AMM,1994) 4th Obs Impact Workshop

Aust. mainland upper air network X X X X 4th Obs Impact Workshop X X X X X X X

Important stations Most influential & Very influential Remoteness Tropics Retuned B in 1999 Greater influence tropics 4th Obs Impact Workshop Influential at upper levels Near sub-tropical jet

Stations with least relative impact Impact reduced post enhanced satellite data usage Significant drop in influence post 1998 4th Obs Impact Workshop Rarely influential Never influential Aircraft data Obs density Downstream Some wind only stations

Remote stations most important Macquarie Island most significant! Importance of tropical stations Limited wind information from satellites Influence of aircraft data etc. Some wind only stations never have significant impact 4th Obs Impact Workshop

AMV’s in ACCESS 4dVAR Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator Centre for Australian Weather & Climate Research Partnership between ABM & CSIRO Atmospheric model: UM + 4dVAR N144 (~80km) global, L50 VAR at N108L50 37.5km & 12.5km Regional AIRS (but not IASI yet) JLM winds TC Nicholas case study & 16day trial Focus on Aus region 4th Obs Impact Workshop

Tropical AMV coverage 4th Obs Impact Workshop

UK typical of global NWP systems 4th Obs Impact Workshop

UK global Extra AMV JTWC 18Z 14th 16.1 120.1 15.8 120.5 16.2 120.2 00Z 15th 119.9 119.8 15.7 119.7 06Z 16.5 119.5 16.0 119.6 12Z 16.6 119.2 119.0 16.4 118.8 18Z 17.4 118.9 118.7 16.7 118.3 00Z 16th 17.6 16.9 118.1 18.1 17.3 118.5 118.0 18.8 119.1 17.8 17.7 117.5 4th Obs Impact Workshop 1. Forecasts from 12Z 14th 2. AusLAM vs Global minor effect 3. No bogussing

UK typical of global NWP systems 4th Obs Impact Workshop

Parallel Trial No AMV AMV (6hr) AMV std AMV 6hr No AMV 4th Obs Impact Workshop AMV 6hr No AMV

AN AMV 4th Obs Impact Workshop No AMV FC diff

5th WMO Data Assimilation Symposium Still a need for AMVs Occasional high impact …although often minor impact Scope for improving existing data Tropics- wind, wind (& moisture) 4th Obs Impact Workshop 5th WMO Data Assimilation Symposium Melbourne, 5-9 October 2009