2018-2022 Andover Housing Production Plan Board of Selectmen July 9, 2018 @MVPCPlanning #MerrimackValley

In recent years Massachusetts cities and towns have permitted less new housing than at almost any point since the 1950s Data from U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permit Survey. Note: in this and in all subsequent graphics, multifamily is defined as a structure with 2+ units and permits are as reported by cities and towns with imputed data by the Census Bureau for communities that fail to report.

Without adding any new people or any more jobs, the state’s housing supply is already about 44,000 units short of demand. Most of that shortfall is in metro Boston. Chart shows the amount of new housing needed to achieve a 6% vacancy rate for rental housing and 2% vacancy rate for owner-occupied housing. Those are the generally accepted levels at which supply and demand is balanced and prices are stable. Total housing needed to meet current statewide demand is approximately 44,000 units: 27,000 rental and 17,000 ownership. Total housing needed to meet current gap in Essex County is 4,900 units: 2,800 rental and 2,100 ownership. Metro Boston Counties MHP analysis of county-level data from 2015 American Community Survey, U.S. Census Bureau.

Over the next decade baby boomers will be leaving their jobs, not their homes. Baby boomer workers are projected to decline by 70% while boomer households decline by only 13% Projections from the Metropolitan Area Planning Council with data from UMass Donahue Institute. Details at www.mapc.org/projections.

Project Scope Andover was our very first meeting on this subject, in May 2017. We returned in November 2017 to discuss needs, goals and strategies. In crafting this plan, we made sure to align with the planning efforts undertaken by the Town, including the 2012 Master Plan, the Imagine Andover report from 2016 and the 2017 Open Space & Recreation Plan.

43 data sets x 15 communities. Many sources consulted Project Accomplishments = 30+ Community Workshops People engaged Data compiled Housing Production Plans Housing Production Plans Adopted = 450+ 43 data sets x 15 communities. Many sources consulted =14 = 8

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Housing Needs

The Data U.S. Census American Community Survey (2011-2015) MassDOT Sources U.S. Census American Community Survey (2011-2015) MassDOT MA Department of Housing & Community Development U.S. HUD UMass Donahue Institute The Data

Andover’s population is growing a bit faster than the region’s Andover’s population is growing a bit faster than the region’s. And that trend is projected to decline through 2035…next slide.

Projections indicate growth in Andover’s population by just over 5,650 people from 2010 to 2035. With associated household growth, this projection indicates a growing demand for housing units. With the 2015 estimated average household size of 2.72, this level of population growth could generate a need for close to 2,100 new units. If average household size continued to decline, thereby increasing household formation, it would generate more demand for new units.

Change in Andover’s Household Characteristics, 2000-2015   2000 Census 2010 Census 2015 Estimate % Change from 2000-2015 Population 31,247 33,201 34,616 10.78% Households 11,305 11,851 12,174 7.69% Households with individuals under 18 years 4,692 4,667 4,845 3.26% Single Person Households 2,447 2,645 2,666 8.95% Average Household Size 2.74 2.68 2.72 -0.73% Average Family Size 3.24 3.18 3.2 -1.23% The number of households with children under 18 years old increased in Andover from 4,692 households in 2000 to about 4,845 in 2015 – an increase of about 3.26 percent. In the same period, single-person households increased from 2,447 households to about 2,666 households – an increase of close to 9 percent.

the age composition of Andover’s population is anticipated to change with a greater percentage of older adults (age 65 year and over), smaller percentage of school age children, and smaller percentage of adults age 20 to 34 years. The senior population is estimated to almost double.

Roughly 80 percent of Andover’s occupied housing units were owner occupied and 20% percent renter occupied, which is higher than the County and State.

Andover’s estimated median household income per the 2015 ACS is $129,082, which is higher than the average of the median income for the fifteen Merrimack Valley communities ($75,532) and fourth highest in region. Area Median Income: $129,082

In 2017, the median sales price for single-family homes and condos combined in Andover was $551,000, second highest in region (below Boxford). Median Sales Price: $551,000

Renter households are typically younger than owner households and this is the case in Andover, however there are proportionally more renters over age 65 in Andover (27 percent) than in the region (20 percent), county (22 percent), and state (19 percent).

Population is growing a bit faster than region, household size is decreasing Composition of households has changed – more households with children, more single- person Senior (65+) population is estimated to more than double by 2035 Renter households are younger than owner, but more 65+ than the rest of the region 23% of households are at or below 80% Area Median Income 64% of low-income households estimated to be cost burdened Lower percentage of young homeowners Themes

Master Plan Goal: H1. Future Generations H.1.1. Promote construction & renovation of a wide range of ownership and rental housing types H.1.2. Support the renovation, rehabilitation & adaptive reuse of existing homes or buildings. H.1.3. Educate residents on the benefits of a diverse housing stock. H.1.4. Encourage affordable housing for seniors. H.1.5. Encourage creation of affordable housing for persons with disabilities Master Plan Goal: H1. Future Generations Andover’s Master Plan (2010) included four goals specific to housing.

Master Plan Goal: H2. Housing Supply H.2.1. Promote an increase in the supply of affordable housing so that Andover remains above the state’s Subsidized Housing Inventory 10% minimum under MGL Chapter 40B. Master Plan Goal: H2. Housing Supply

H3. Context Sensitive Design H.3.1. Create guidelines and/or regulations for context sensitive design development to be used when possible. H.3.2. Encourage multi-family housing in appropriate locations and at an appropriate scale. H.3.3. New housing developments should advance Andover as a walkable and bikeable community, when possible. Master Plan Goal: H3. Context Sensitive Design Context-sensitive really equates to human scaled

Master Plan Goal: H4. Inventory H.4.1 Maintain a current inventory of potential developable areas for affordable housing. H.4.2. Preserve the affordability of previous 40B projects. Master Plan Goal: H4. Inventory In short, Andover not only has very few barriers to the development of affordable housing, but the Master Plan showed your progressive thinking that has in turn led to such strides as revisions to your Zoning Bylaw and the creation of a Transit-Oriented Development mixed-use zone. Andover is way ahead of most of the communities in our region with this forward-think and progressive mentality. You’ve tackled issues that most communities aren’t even comfortable including in their Housing Production Plan! We constantly point to Andover as a community that really walks the walk and talks the talk with regard to the creation of all types of housing units.

Housing Strategy Categories Planning and Policies: Capacity-building strategies, zoning changes and updates municipal policies. Production: How can the community produce units to maintain its 10% status? Preservation: Tactics necessary to keep those existing and future housing units affordable.

HPP Next Steps Planning Board reviewed and voted to recommend approval to Board of Selectmen at their May 22, 2018 meeting Board of Selectmen adopts Final Andover Housing Production Plan Send to DHCD for final approval Incorporate into final Merrimack Valley Regional Housing Plan

Merrimack Valley Planning Commission Questions/Comments Karen Sawyer Conard, Executive Director kconard@mvpc.org Michael Parquette Comprehensive Planning Program Manager mparquette@mvpc.org Merrimack Valley Planning Commission