Western Africa NWP: The model and initial results

Model Configuration MM5-based Real-Time Four Dimensional Data Assimilation (RTFDDA) system “Standard” model physics are currently used 6-hour cycles with 24 - 36 hr forecasts in each cycle, depending on the grid. Observations: Standard GTS/WMO surface and upper-air stations, plus MADIS (mostly AMDAR) and QuikScat sea-surface winds

Computing Resources NCAR Director GAU Reserve 7840 GAUs per month until May 1 CISL Lightning Linux-cluster 18 dedicated dual-cpu nodes: 1 model master, 16 MPP and 1 spare Local post-processing and web service RAL PC clusters 12 airlines, 8951 flights and 449312 obs a day. Mesaba, Atlantic Southeast, Comair, Horizon, Skywest, Mesa, “Pinnacle Airlines dba Northwest Airlink, ExpressJet, Alaska Airlines, Southwest Airlines.

Domains Three 2-way nested domains DX= 40.5/13.5/4.5 km Dimensions D1: 261x261x36 D2: 184x295x36 D3: 208x301x36 Sizes (km2): D1:10530x10530 D2: 3969x2592 D3: 1350x931 D1 D2 D3

Typical Distribution of Currently Available Observations QuikScat & SFC ROAB 20061211 06 20061211 12 Currently available obs: Sfc: mostly at 00, 03 … 21Z Raob: 00 and 12Z. Some at 06 and18Z QuikScat: twice a day AMDAR: vary diurnally. More obs should be collected and assimilated into the system in the future. AMDAR 20061204 12

Typical Distribution of Currently Available Observations 20061211 06

Land Use and Terrain Features savanna barren lands EBFST shrub, grass, crop shrub CROP TERRAIN HEIGHT (KM)

Precip. Climate (From UK/CRU)

Verification of RTFDDA Forecasts of Cloud fields (Domain 1; valid at 00Z Dec. 5, 2006) NRL DAY/NGT VIS/IR RTFDDA 6h FCST: Cloud Top T

Verification of RTFDDA Forecasts of Cloud fields (Domain 1; valid at 18Z Dec. 6, 2006) NRL DAY/NGT VIS/IR RTFDDA 18h FCST: Cloud Top T

Verification of RTFDDA Forecasts of Precipitation (Domain 1; valid at 21Z Dec. 6, 2006) NRL GEO-MV derived 3-h rain RTFDDA 3h FCST: 1h rain

(Animated hourly, 07Z Dec. 4 – 18Z Dec. 5 2006) Domain 2 (Animated hourly, 07Z Dec. 4 – 18Z Dec. 5 2006) Surface T and Winds Surface Qv and Winds

(Animated hourly, 07Z Dec. 4 – 18Z Dec. 5 2006) Domain 3 (Animated hourly, 07Z Dec. 4 – 18Z Dec. 5 2006) Surface T and Winds Surface Qv and Winds

Next steps, and plans Ghanian and Nigerian forecasters are providing subjective feedback on model strengths and weaknesses. NCAR will perform objective verification of the forecasts, and improve the model as needed. PC cluster will be set up in spring 07 at NCAR for longer-term operation of the modeling system. Proposal will be submitted to the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) for longer-term NWP capacity building

continued For the MCC proposal, NCAR will partner with ZedX corporation, that links agricultural models with meteorological models, and which has a presence in Ghana. NCAR will partner with NASA, Columbia University, and CU to work with a CU PhD student who will apply WRF for climate-downscaling in West Africa. NCAR will continue to work with Ben Lamptey during the second year of his post-doctoral appointment, to establish liaisons with stakeholders and to do what is necessary to maintain collaboration after his return to Ghana.