TAS Quarterly Meeting November 2-3, 2016 Michael Bailey, P.E. WECC 2034 Reference Case Update TAS Quarterly Meeting November 2-3, 2016 Michael Bailey, P.E. WECC Western Electricity Coordinating Council

Western Electricity Coordinating Council Discussion Topics Transmission Models Load Models Generation Models Optimization Goals Optimization Constraints Economics Preliminary Results & Observations Analytics & Metrics Next Steps Western Electricity Coordinating Council

Western Electricity Coordinating Council 2034 Reference Case Update Transmission Models Western Electricity Coordinating Council

Western Electricity Coordinating Council Reduced Network Model 20,000+ bus full network model (FNM) reduced to 500- bus reduced network model (RNM) Boundary flows of RNM within 1% FNM Western Electricity Coordinating Council

Transmission Candidates Reduced Network Candidate Corridors Western Electricity Coordinating Council

Transmission Candidate Assumptions Focus is WECC transmission paths and on inter-regional transmission needs. Intra-regional transmission assumed to be adequately reinforced. Utilization of existing transmission infrastructure will be maximized as much as possible before any new transmission infrastructure is built. Percentage of power flows on new and existing infrastructure relative to line ratings required to be balanced. Western Electricity Coordinating Council

Balanced Transmission Power Flows Power flows on new candidate line(s), as a percentage of line ratings, balanced with existing transmission infrastructure loading(s). Western Electricity Coordinating Council

Transmission Equivalent Links Western Electricity Coordinating Council

Transmission Candidates Pc% Adj Candidate Adj Pe% Pc% = Pe% Western Electricity Coordinating Council

Transmission Technologies Approximately 1000 candidate corridors. Single and double circuit AC technology types at 230 kV, 345 kV, and 500 kV. Two DC technology types at 500 and 600 kV. Library of corridors geospatially optimized to minimize environmental impact and to capture terrain and ROW costs. Western Electricity Coordinating Council

Western Electricity Coordinating Council 2034 Reference Case Update Load Models Western Electricity Coordinating Council

Load Model Enhancements Itron Load Forecasting Tool (LFT) used to produce Year-20 energy and demand load forecasts. Eight load duration blocks co-optimized. Four seasons with heavy and lite load levels each. Western Electricity Coordinating Council

Western Electricity Coordinating Council 2034 Reference Case Update Generation Models Western Electricity Coordinating Council

Western Electricity Coordinating Council Generation Models Common Case generating units and technology type characteristics captured as existing generation. Future candidate technology types obtained from TEPPC Generation Capital Cost Tool. Future candidate renewable generating units and technology type characteristics derived from NREL data. Future candidate non-renewable generating units and technology type characteristics derived from TEPPC Generation Capital Cost Tool. Western Electricity Coordinating Council

Western Electricity Coordinating Council Generation Models Three types of generation aggregation hubs: TEPPC state/area hubs Renewable energy hubs (WREZ) Natural gas hubs Hubs modeled as geospatial centroids. Western Electricity Coordinating Council

Western Electricity Coordinating Council 2034 Reference Case Update Optimization Goals Western Electricity Coordinating Council

Western Electricity Coordinating Council Optimization Goals Approximately 200 Generation Goals Captured Policy Goals Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) Annual State/Province/Country Energy Targets Tiers & Carve-outs Common Case Earmarks Reliability Goals State, Area and System Reliability Flex Energy (MWh) & Demand/Capacity (MW) Other Western Electricity Coordinating Council

Western Electricity Coordinating Council Optimization Goals Sequencing Priorities Shared-by Roll-ups Candidate Qualification Factors Load ratios, targets, credit ratios Flex Associations Western Electricity Coordinating Council

Colorado Goals Example Western Electricity Coordinating Council

Western Electricity Coordinating Council Oregon Goals Example Western Electricity Coordinating Council

Optimization Constraints Pooled & Locational Annual Consumption/Production Rates & Limits Fuel (e.g., renewable) Water Carbon Other Western Electricity Coordinating Council

Western Electricity Coordinating Council 2034 Reference Case Update Economics Western Electricity Coordinating Council

Western Electricity Coordinating Council Economics Levelized Cost of Energy TEPPC Generation Capital Cost Tool (E3) TEPPC Transmission Capital Cost Tool (Black & Veatch) Review of Financing Parameters Review of Technology Types Western Electricity Coordinating Council

Western Electricity Coordinating Council 2034 Reference Case Update Preliminary Results Western Electricity Coordinating Council

Western Electricity Coordinating Council Reduced Network 23hs1a Balanced Generation across Western Interconnection. North-South flows across from BC and PNW. East-West from Montana to PNW. East-West from DSW to SoCal. Western Electricity Coordinating Council

1rst Pass – Deficit of Generation in Canada South-North Flows to Canada due to 93% BC and 30% AB renewable targets. Lack of modeled candidate renewable generation in BC and AB to meet self-serve assumptions. Western Electricity Coordinating Council

2nd Pass – Gap Renewable Resources added in Canada North-South Flows from Canada re-established. Gap hydro added to BC, gap wind added to AB. Renewable targets met in Canada. Excess non-renewable available in Canada. Western Electricity Coordinating Council

2nd Pass - Transmission Expansion Needs Interconnection of Canadian Renewables. North-south Canadian Exports. North-South flows on COI. South-North flows of SE Colorado Wind. East-West flows of New Mexico Wind. East-West flows to DSW. Western Electricity Coordinating Council

Western Electricity Coordinating Council 2034 Reference Case Update Analytics & Metrics Western Electricity Coordinating Council

Western Electricity Coordinating Council Analytics & Metrics Input parameters and assumptions. Goal and Constraint Audits. Locational (Hub) metrics. Transmission path utilizations and constraints. Power Flows and System Reliability. Generation Technology. Fuel Mix. Policy. Economics Geospatial. Western Electricity Coordinating Council

Western Electricity Coordinating Council 2034 Reference Case Update Next Steps Western Electricity Coordinating Council

Western Electricity Coordinating Council Next Steps Continue Reference Case solution audit. Continue Analytic and Report development. Leverage consultants to help with stakeholder parameter and metric outreach. Western Electricity Coordinating Council

Western Electricity Coordinating Council 2034 Reference Case Update Questions? Michael Bailey, P.E. Senior Staff Engineer Western Electricity Coordinating Council 155 North 400 West Suite 200 Salt Lake City, Utah 84103-1114 (801) 819 7679 Western Electricity Coordinating Council