Low-Income Energy Assistance In FY 2009 & The Short Term Energy Outlook October, 2008.

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Presentation transcript:

Low-Income Energy Assistance In FY 2009 & The Short Term Energy Outlook October, 2008

What We’ll Talk About Energy Market Conditions Outlook For This Coming Season Impact On Low-Income Energy Expenses Recent Federal Legislation Other Things To Think About

CRUDE OIL CONTRACT FOR NOVEMBER 08 SOURCE: WALL STREET JOURNAL 10/13/08

WORLD OIL CONSUMPTION

MARGINAL SUPPLY

NATURAL GAS CONTRACT FOR NOVEMBER 08 SOURCE: WALL STREET JOURNAL 10/13/08

SOURCE: EIA

WORKING GAS UNDERGROUND COMPARED TO FIVE YEAR RANGE Inventories above average levels for all major fuels SOURCE: EIA

PROJECTED GROWTH IN RESIDENTIAL ELECTRICITY PRICES

EIA Short Term Outlook For 2008-2009 Heating Oil Prices Up 15 % From Last Year, all things being equal Heating Oil at $3.89 per gallon Natural Gas Prices Up 17% Natural Gas at $14.22 per mcf, Propane at $2.65 per gallon Electricity Prices up 9.7 % National average of 12.4 cents per kwh

EXPECTED EXPENDITURES FOR 2008-2009 Low-Income Households In The United States Source: ORNL Tabulation from EIA August 2008 STEO & 2001 RECS

RATE OF INCREASE IN RESIDENTIAL ENERGY PRICES BY FUEL TYPE Since 1992 (Nominal dollars) Sources: DOE/EIA Short Term Energy Outlook, August 2008, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of the Census

AGGREGATE RESIDENTIAL ENERGY EXPENDITURES BY LOW-INCOME HOUSEHOLDS Federally Eligible Millions of Dollars SOURCE: ORNL TABULATION BASED ON EIA STEO AND RECS

FEDERAL LIHEAP IN FY 2009 HUGE INCREASE LOCKED IN FOR FY 2009 BASIC GRANT UP FROM $2.53 BILLION TO $4.5 BILLION ADDITIONAL EMERGENCY CONTINGENCY FUNDING OF $590.3 MILLION $3.669 BILLION UNDER ‘TIER 1’ FORMULA MONEY FOR FY 2009 LOCKED IN WASHINGTON INCREASE $34 TO $74.6 MILLION

FEDERAL WAP IN FY2009 APPROPRIATION LEVEL APPEARS TO PROVIDE $477 MILLION, $250 MILLION ABOVE FY 2008 FUNDING SO FAR IS ESTIMATED AT $347.7 MILLION APPROPRIATORS MUST DEAL WITH BALANCE ‘SUSTAINABLE ENERGY COMMUNITIES” PROVISION MAY KICK IN.

OTHER ISSUES Disconnections Comprehensive Programs What To Do About Bulk Fuels Decoupling Advanced Metering Renewable Portfolio Standards Cap & Trade