Lead and Children’s IQ Clark D. Carrington, Ph.D., D.A.B.T.

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Presentation transcript:

Lead and Children’s IQ Clark D. Carrington, Ph.D., D.A.B.T. Chemical Hazards Assessment Team Center for Food Safety and Applied Nutrition US Food and Drug Administration

Lead (Pb) - Hazards There is little to no margin of exposure/safety - there is some level of risk, all be it small, associated with low levels of exposure. Bioavailability of ingested lead are age specific. In humans the incidence of lead induced effects (adverse below a blood Pb level of 10 µg/dL ?) is observable and verifiable. Placenta presents a minimal barrier to movement of lead from maternal to fetal circulation. Food consumption per body mass is greater in infants & younger children (up to approx. 7 years of age and younger) as compared to adults. Infants & younger children absorb lead from the GI tract more readily than adults by about a factor of four. Immature status of developing organs - brain, kidneys & liver - more sensitive to toxic insult. The magnitude of response is dose and organ system dependent. Key effect of low blood lead levels is on neurocognitive development.

Prospective studies: estimated change in full scale IQ (and 95% confidence interval) for increase in blood lead from 10 to 20 µg/dl, using three measures of blood lead in each study. Pocock et al., BMJ 309:1189-1197, 1994.

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Lanphear (2005) Meta-analysis Hill Model

Lanphear (2005) Meta-analysis Bilinear Model

Lead Issues Quantitative Dimensions Individual Response Magnitude No Threshold (but that doesn’t mean you have to care) Uncertainty (Sampling, Model) No Variability Epidemiological Studies as the Basis for Dose-Response No Raw Data (usually) Association means Causation? Multivariate Analysis (One Wrong, all Wrong) Systematic Error