THE UPPER BASIN A FEW BASICS

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Presentation transcript:

THE UPPER BASIN A FEW BASICS February 10, 2016 Eric Kuhn

It’s time to talk about the big picture…Downstream obligations, basin statistics 2

Hydrology comparison 2000-2014 12.3 MAF @ LF 1988-2014 13.2 MAF @ LF Basin Study CC 13.7 MAF @ LF 1906-2014 GR 14.8 MAF @ LF 1120-1172 PH 12.7 MAF @ LF CC –climate change GR – gage period NF PH – paleo-hydrology Data from Reclamation’s Naturalized Flows database

2000-2014 WATER BUDGET SUPPLY – 13 MAF/YR (12.3 LF +.7 LB) USE – 15+ MAF/YR (ignoring Gila) DEFICIT – 2+ MAF/YR 12/1999 MEAD + POWELL > 50 MAF 12/2014 MEAD + POWELL ~ 20 MAF

LAKE POWELL RELEASES Controlled by the 2007 Interim Guidelines Based on storage levels in both Powell AND Mead What happens in the LB impacts Powell and what happens in the UB impacts Mead As long as Powell has storage – NO compact problems for UB

BASIC TRADE-OFF CERTAINTY VS DEVELOPMENT EXISTING USERS DESIRE COMPACT PROTECTION – MINIMAL THREAT OF A FUTURE CURTAILMENT THE HIGHER THE LEVEL OF DEVELOP –MENT THE HIGHER THE RISK PRE-COMPACT USES (PRIMARILY WS AGRICULTURE) NOT SUBJECT TO COMPACT CURTAILMENT

CONTINGENCY PLANNING Challenge from Interior: The Goal: What if the current drought were to continue into the future? Have a plan in place by 2015 (MOA or similar) The Goal: Identify actions that can “bend the curve”, i.e., reduce the risk of losing power production or being unable to deliver water Possible Solutions: Extended Operation of CRSP reservoirs Demand Management Cloud seeding / other augmentation

Demand Management Frequency Assumptions; 2007 IGs operate Powell, Demands as defined by “current trends – Basin Study Extended ops before demand management

Vulnerability: Lee Ferry Deficit TR-G Fig ref cite – G-5, page G-22, 2012 with Interim Guidelines extended Basin Study Preliminary Draft Presentation - SUBJECT TO CHANGE

Extended Ops with UB Demand Management It is not a short-term solution. Needs time to accumulate Ideally would be separate from system water (e.g. Bank) because of uncertain future hydrology and IG behavior But over time can be significant Minimal benefit in near-term

THE RIVER TODAY EVERY DROP OF WATER IS USED. THE UPPER BASIN IS CONSUMING ABOUT 4.5 MAF/YR. THE LOWER BASIN IS CONSUMING ABOUT 10-11 MAF/YR. MEXICO IS CONSUMING ABOUT 1.5 MAF/YR. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE RELIABLE LONG TERM YIELD OF THE COLORADO RIVER SYSTEM. THE YIELD (AT THE MOUTH) IS PROBABLY NO MORE THE 15 MAF!