World Congress of Families Social Capital, The Family and The Economy Patrick F Fagan, Ph.D. World Congress of Families Madrid, May 25, 2012

Fundamental Capacities Force / Benevolence Work Intelligence Reflection Sexuality There are five major institutions in society: The Family The Church (Synagogue or Temple) The School (Grade School, High School, University and Media) The Government The Marketplace (The Economy) In which five major tasks are accomplished: Begetting and forming the next generation Dealing with transcendent truths Learning and teaching Using physical force (locus of power) for the common good Taking care of material needs through exchange of goods and services

Fundamental Tasks Of the Individual Gov Market School Church Family There are five major institutions in society: The Family The Church (Synagogue or Temple) The School (Grade School, High School, University and Media) The Government The Marketplace (The Economy) In which five major tasks are accomplished: Begetting and forming the next generation Dealing with transcendent truths Learning and teaching Using physical force (locus of power) for the common good Taking care of material needs through exchange of goods and services

Fundamental Tasks Of the Couple Gov Market Gov Market School School Church Church Family Family These same five tasks need to be accomplished in the lives of each individual if they are to lead a full life, and in the joint actions of the couple, if they are to have a solid marriage

Fundamental Tasks Of the Family Gov Market School Church Family It is from such a marriage that a child best learns these five basic tasks. Such a child is blessed. Children without such parents are not as blessed and will not develop as well nor be able (as a group…individual cases differ) to perform these tasks as well. Family Family

Fundamental Tasks Of Society Gov Market School Church Family Gov Market School Gov Church Market Family School It is from families and couples like these that the whole of society receives the grown child, now a young adult, who has the benefits (the social capital) that permit him or her to be a fully competent citizen. All five tasks are needed. All five institutions are needed …if the person and society are to function optimally. Family Church (Religious practice) School Marketplace Government Church Family Gov Market School Church Family

Income Now, let us look at the Marketplace and Income.

From the best US Federal government surveys, let us look at income by family structure (these are the only surveys used in this presentation, and all are national sample size…i.e., very large samples). Even the bereaved widow does well enough.

$127 $100 $27 + = Marriage Premium in Male Income Source Antovics, K. & Town, R. Am Econ Review V 94, (2004) pp 317-321 $127 140 Marriage Premium in Male Income $100 120 100 80 Comparative Income % 60 $27 This slide illustrates the culmination of a series of research projects which went about isolating the effect of marriage on men’s earning power. Controlling for all other factors (even genetics --- using monozygotic twin studies), men who are married increase their earning power by 27%, in general. The last slide, which showed the effect on child poverty of fathers being married to the mothers of their children, did not have this effect in there (the men were not married). Should that have been the case, nearly every child would have been lifted out of poverty. + = 40 20 Average Unmarried Male Premium Average Married Male

From this chart, you can see how many hours per year the heads of households (blue) and the second earner, normally the wife, female partner (in orange), engage in the marketplace. On average, the widow (the remains of an intact married family) does not work that long. You will see why later.

Here you can see the distribution of poverty across family structures Here you can see the distribution of poverty across family structures. It is by far the least in the married family. Even the widow does better than most other family structures.

Savings Now we will look at savings by family structure.

The always-intact married family and the widow (with the insurance her deceased husband provided for her), have, by far, the most savings and wealth of all family structures. There are immense implications from this for the capital infrastructure of the United States: It rests primarily on the intact married family.

From an older survey analysis by the Rand Corporation, we see that by the beginning of early old age, the intact married couple is by far the most prepared for old age.

Poverty Now, looking at poverty.

As we saw earlier, the married family does best. The new family structure …the intact cohabiting, never-married, couple and their children have the highest rates of poverty. The new form of the family does not do well by itself, by its children, or for the nation.

Source R Rector: Analysis of CPS 2001 Same Parents Married Unmarried Parents 3.17 Million Children 3.93 Million Children Out of Poverty In Poverty Robert Rector of The Heritage Foundation showed that by combining the incomes of single mothers in poverty with the income of the fathers (not present in the family), 80% of the children in such families moved above the poverty line. Children in Poverty 0.75 Million Children Source R Rector: Analysis of CPS 2001

Impact of Divorce on Income of Families 1993 Average Annual Income $50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 Before Divorce After Divorce This older chart illustrates the size of the drop in income when a family moves from being intact and married to fractured and divorced. More recent research puts this in the range of a 30% drop, which is close to the drop experienced by the US during the Great Depression. Children of divorcing/rejecting parents go through a ‘Great Depression’ in their family income during the divorce. Family Status Source: Corcoran and Chaudray, Unpublished Research Paper, Survey Research Center, University of Michigan, May 1994

This chart illustrates what portion of US children reach age 17 having grown up in an intact married family. The blue arrow gives the percent for the US as a whole: 46%. The most intact ethnic group in the US is the Asian-American family (66%). The least intact is the African-American family (17%). In these numbers, there are huge implications for the income and wealth of these families and for the nation as a whole: in its total earnings and in its capital infrastructure (savings and wealth).

Chastity Chastity, that most maligned virtue in the media today, has huge implications in the marketplace through its impact on the structure and stability of the family.

Number of Non-Marital Sexual Partners Versus Percent in a Stable Marriage Source: NSFG 1995 Here is the impact --- in the natural order outside of grace --- of monogamy on the stability of marriage. The first bar is the woman who has never had sexual intercourse outside of marriage (0 partners outside of marriage). 80% of such women in the United States have stable marriages … stay united to their husbands. The rest of the chart tells the rest of the story: the more sexual partners, the more likely they are to divorce. Even having one partner brings the rate of divorce very close to one in two chances (54%).

Non-Marital Sexual Partners and Out-of-Wedlock Births Source: CDC, National Center for Health Statistics, National Survey of Family Growth, 1995 60% 55.21% 49.45% 49.99% 49.89% 50% 47.55% 44.02% 42.66% 40.02% 40% 32.89% Percent of Sexually Active Women Aged 15-44 with Children 30% 20% 16.29% 10% 1.71% 0% Virgin at Had Pre- 1 2 3 4 5 6-10. 11-15. 16-20 21+ Out of wedlock births (single parenthood or cohabitation). The more non-marital sexual partners a woman, has the more likely she is to give birth outside of marriage – of course! But it is to be noted that virginity before marriage has a massive impact, as does non-virginity before marriage: in very different directions. Time of Marital Sex First with First Marriage Husband Number of Lifetime Voluntary Non-Marital Sexual Partners

Girls: Number of Sex Partners / Church Attendance Not surprisingly, those who worship God more frequently are much less likely to engage in sexual intercourse. Girls who worship weekly are most likely to remain virgins and chaste. The less they worship, the more likely they are to have more sexual partners outside of marriage. Again, through the structure and stability of the family, worship and chastity have a very big impact on the economy of a nation. Weekly Wkly>Mo Mo>Yr Never

$$$ INCOME -ECONOMY So, if we were to envisage a society where all the families were intact, we would be seeing a society where the social capital of the nation is achieving maximum growth.

$$$ INCOME -FAMILY ECONOMY However, given that less than half our children now grow up in an intact family, we can safely say that the US economy is operating way below its potential, because its young people (and older adults too) are operating way below their potential social capital.

Education Now let us look at education, that key ingredient of social capital.

Educational Attainment / Life Earnings (in millions) This chart shows the lifetime earnings of individuals in the US given their level of education. Though the numbers will be different in each country, the lesson will be the same: In general, the more education, the more income. Family structure (intact marriage or not) and religious worship have big implications for education attainment.

Grade Point Average (School performance) by family structure. Children from intact married families outperform all the rest, very significantly.

School Expulsion Source Add Health Wave II 1996 Children from intact, always unified, families are least likely to be expelled from school, then children of divorced parents, then always-single mother families (who have the hardest job supervising their children, particularly once adolescence has arrived).

This MARRI chart graphs the earnings capacity of the total US population over time. Over the last four decades, there has been a slight drop. Over the next decade, as the baby boom retires and is replaced by a smaller population of less educated workers, the US will experience a significant decrease in its productivity and earnings. Its citizens will have less social capital that will be reflected in less productivity and less earnings. By the way, you can keep up on these studies by subscribing free to MARRI by signing up at our booth.

Educational Attainment Ideal If all our families in the US were intact, we would be much closer to optimum capacity for productivity.

Educational Attainment However, with less than 50% of our children growing up in an intact family, we in the US will not reach anything near our education potential. The same family structure lesson holds for all nations, including Spain I suspect, for we are dealing with the same human nature.

Religious Practice Now we will look at the relationship between religious practice and social capital. Many governments neglect or even move against the religious practice of its citizens; they do so in total ignorance of its impact on their economy. It is worth noting that China is paying increasing attention to this aspect of human capacity, not necessarily out of a love for religion but out of cognizance of its impact on their economy. How strange it is that this should be the case while Christian-rooted Europe pushes its religious dimension further and further onto the sidelines.

GPA (English & Math) by Religious Practice Source: Adolescent Health Survey, Wave I. Adolescents grade 7-12. GPA (English & Math) by Religious Practice 2.90 2.9 2.85 2.80 2.8 2.75 2.70 2.7 Average GPA Enligsh/Math Combined 2.65 From our largest survey on youth, here is the grade point average of US youth depending on how frequently they worship. Weekly is the highest, and never is the lowest. Nothing in education policy can have such an impact nationally. Though not surprisingly… God can be seen at work here… indirectly, of course, but powerfully nonetheless. 2.6 2.60 2.55 2.50 2.45 WEEKLY+ MONTHLY+ <MONTHLY NEVER

This research by Mark Regnerus of University of Texas at Austin shows that the impact is massive for the poor. The more they worship, the more they benefit…more than any other income group.

Those who worship frequently are much less likely to repeat a grade.

Religious Practice And Family Combined

GPA Who does best in high school in the United States? College professors and employers, take note. Where will your best and brightest come from? Where is the strongest culture? Intact family and the regular, weekly worship of God.

The same holds true for high school graduation rates. It is noteworthy that the non-intact family that worships weekly gains great strength in education from its regular worship of God. Education departments of the world, take note if you are interested in growing a nation of high social capital with high productivity capacities.

The same holds true for obtaining a college/university education.

Ideal Impact of Full Worship If all citizens were believers and all worshipped God weekly (His command), then the education and productivity capacities of nations would be at or near their full potential. Ideal Impact of Full Worship

Impact of Lessened Worship But instead, regular weekly worship of God has diminished throughout the developed world --- to its own detriment. In the US, weekly worship was close to 7% in the late 1950s and early 1960s. Now it is closer to half that. In Europe, it is much, much lower ---- to its massive detriment, educationally, and economically, and therefore in productivity and wealth. How ironic.

Macroeconomy Now we will look at some macroeconomic issues.

This chart (original research from MARRI) graphs the fertility rate of Europe over the last 140 years. As you can see Europe is in a fertility free fall at present.

Here we can see the coming impact for the US of significant fertility declines in the 1970s. Its productivity capacity is beginning to decline significantly and will continue to do so for the next decade (as far out as we have predicted).

The Divorce Revolution in the US in the 1970s and 1980s caused a permanent drop in the rate of growth of the US economy. We know of no other analysis which has looked at this impact on other countries but the lesson is clear: heads of household lose most of the marriage premium in productivity (average 27%) when they divorce. Their productivity/ earnings revert to just above that of single men. This is from US decennial Census data. Incontrovertible!

This chart illustrates the twin factors of The level of belongingness in family in the United States (downward) And The constant dollar value of the median family income in the United States (which encompasses all the different family structures). I interpret the above chart to indicate that the phenomenal growth of the US economy benefited the family significantly until the family began to break down. Clearly the continued growth in real terms of the US economy since the mid 1970’s has not been passed on to all families in the US.

Schema: Having Vs Belonging in the US The trend lines are produced here …median income rising slowly for the family despite real GDP growth while levels of belonging in the family decrease. Yet if we look at the capital wealth of families in the United States we will get some indication of where the disparities lie.

Sweden, who markets herself as a model of social policy was at 70. G E R M A N Y Germany in 2000 was at 47.5 Sweden, who markets herself as a model of social policy was at 70. These calculations are a rough calculation, and the source data are proxy data from UN sources of a decade ago, but it is the best approximation of a “Rejection Ratio” for the countries of the world.

Now, to see pictures of some of the greatest contributors to the economy of nations, be they richer or poorer: Here is one picture from a hundred years ago.

And another more recent American family.

And yet another … poorer in money but rich in family, in children and in the future. Gary Becker, Nobel Laureate in Economics, says: “The mother at home raising her children makes a greater contribution to the economy than her husband out working in the marketplace!”

There are two dominant models of how society works. This is the traditional natural law model: More worship, More marriage, More children: This leads to thriving economies and societies.

The other model, that proposed by Planned Parenthood and International Planned Parenthood : Less worship, Less Marriage Less Children Is a recipe for economic debility, and gradually rising social weakness and even eventual chaos. It is insane. Yet it holds dominant sway in the universities (the greatest insanity of all), in the capitals of most countries and in the UN. It is our job to change the dominant model being looked to for the best of futures.

BELONGING: MALE + FEMALE SOCIETY AT LARGE BELONGING: MALE + FEMALE FAMILY CHILD / ADULT It is simple: Family based on monogamous marriage, Weekly worship of God With ensuing superior education outcomes With consequent higher productivity, earnings , savings and wealth and economic infrastructure. All leading to a much easier work for government. Governments can choose the model they follow. They cannot choose the consequences: they follow inevitably. FATHER MOTHER

Society’s Fundamental Tasks Buildings Reflect Society’s Fundamental Tasks Government Market Church School Family With one model societies flourish With the other societies wilt. The differences are obvious and measurable. We challenge Planned Parenthood and International Planned Parenthood and its affiliates in the universities and world bodies, including the UN, to go toe to toe with us on the data. We can do this with total confidence.

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