Managerial Support Systems CHAPTER 9 Managerial Support Systems

CHAPTER OUTLINE 9.1 Managers and Decision Making 9.2 Business Intelligence, Multidimensional Data Analysis, Data Mining, and Decision Support Systems 9.3 Digital Dashboards 9.4 Data Visualization Technologies 9.5 Intelligent Systems

LEARNING OBJECTIVES Describe the concepts of management, decision making and computerized support for decision making. Describe multidimensional data analysis and data mining Describe dashboards

LEARNING OBJECTIVES (continued) Describe data visualization, and explain geographical information systems and virtual reality. Describe artificial intelligence (AI). Define an expert system and identify its components. Describe natural language processing and natural language generation, and neural networks.

Chapter Opening Case

9.1 Managers and Decision Making Management is a process by which organizational goals are achieved through the use of resources (people, money, energy, materials, space, time).

The Manager’s Job and Decision Making Managers have three basic roles (Mintzberg 1973) Interpersonal roles Informational roles Decisional roles Managers have three basic roles: Interpersonal roles: figurehead, leader, liaison Informational roles: monitor, disseminator, spokesperson Decisional roles: entrepreneur, disturbance handler, resource allocator, negotiator.

The Manager’s Job & Decision Making (continued) Decision refers to a choice that individuals and group make among two or more alternatives. Decision making is a systematic process composed of three major phases: intelligence, design and choice (Simon 1977) Implementation phase was added later.

Decision Making Process

Why Managers Need IT Support The number of alternatives to be considered constantly increases. Decisions must be made under time pressure. Decisions are more complex Decision makers can be in different locations and so is the information.

A Framework for Computerized Decision Analysis Lower-level managers usually perform the structured and operational-control oriented tasks in cells 1, 2, and 4. (Blue color above). Middle managers and staff usually perform the tasks in cells 3, 5, and 7. (Orange color above). Senior executives usually perform the tasks in cells 6, 8, and 9. (Yellow color above.)

Problem Structure The first dimension deals with the problem structure, where does the decision making processes fall along the continuum ranging from highly structured to highly unstructured decisions. Structured Unstructured Semistructured Structured problems are routine and repetitive problems for which standard solutions exist. Unstructured problems are fuzzy, complex problems for which there are no cut-and-dried solutions. Semistructured problems are problems in which only some of the decision process phases are structured.

The Nature of Decisions The second dimension of decision support deals with the nature of decisions Operational control Management control Strategic planning Operational control involves executing specific tasks efficiently and effectively. Management control involves decisions concerning acquiring and using resources efficiently in accomplishing organizational goals. Strategic planning involves decisions concerning the long range goals and policies for growth and resource allocation.

9.2 BI, Multidimensional Data Analysis, Data Mining, and DSSs Business Intelligence (BI) Two types of BI Systems: Those that provide data analysis tools Multidimensional data analysis (or online analytical processing) Data mining Decision support systems Those that provide information in structured format Dashboards Business Intelligence (BI) refers to applications and technologies for consolidating, analyzing, and providing access to vast amounts of data to help users make better business and strategic decisions.

How Business Intelligence Works (Figure 9.3)

Multidimensional Data Analysis Provides users with a look at what is happening or what has happened. Allows users to analyze data in such a way that they can quickly answer business questions.

Data Mining Searching for valuable business information in a large database or data warehouse. Data mining performs two basic operations: Predicting trends and behaviors Identifying previously unknown patterns and relationships

9.2 Decision Support Systems (DSS) DSS capabilities Sensitivity analysis What-if analysis Goal-seeking analysis Decision support systems (DSSs) are computer-based information systems that combine models and data in an attempt to solve semistructured and some unstructured problems with extensive user involvement. Sensitivity analysis is the study of the impact that changes in one (or more) parts of a model have on other parts. What-if analysis is the study of the impact of a change in the assumptions (input data) on the proposed solution. Goal-seeking analysis is the study that attempts to find the value of the inputs necessary to achieve a desired level of output.

Group Decision Support Systems (GDSS) Group decision support system (GDSS) is an interactive computer-based system that supports the process of finding solutions by a group of decision makers. Decision Room is a face-to-face setting for a group DSS, in which terminals are available to the participants.

Organizational Decision Support System (ODSS) Organizational Decision Support System (ODSS) is a DSS that focuses on an organizational task or activity involving a sequence of operations and decision makers. Organizational Decision Support System (ODSS) provide the following: It affects several organizational units or corporate problems; It cuts across organizational functions or hierarchical layers; It involves computer-based and (usually) communications technologies.

9.3 Digital Dashboards Dashboards: Provide rapid access to timely information. Provide direct access to management reports. Are very user friendly and supported by graphics.

Sample Performance Dashboard (Figure 9.4)

Another Example of Dashboard

Executive Dashboard Demo http://www.informationbuilders.com/rfr/qtdemo/AdvVis_ExecDash/AdvVis_ExecDash.html

A Bloomberg Terminal (Figure 9.5)

Management Cockpit (Figure 9.6)

Management Cockpit A strategic management room that enables top-level decision makers to pilot their businesses better. The environment encourages more efficient management meetings and boosts team performance via effective communication. Key performance indicators and information relating to critical success factors are displayed graphically on the walls of the meeting room. External information can be easily imported to the room to allow competitive analysis.

Halliburton’s CyberWell (IT’s About Business 9.3) 3D image similar to that produced by CyberWell

9.4 Data Visualization Systems The Power of Visualization Even though a picture is “worth a thousand words,” we have to be very careful about just what we are seeing. Remember, on the Internet, it is “user beware!” Data visualization is the process of presenting data to users in visual formats, thereby making IT applications more attractive and understandable to users.

New York City Police Department Command Center Data visualization in action

Example of data visualization Hans Rosling at the TED Talks This is an outstanding 21-minute video that illustrates data visualization.

Types of data visualization systems Geographical Information Systems Virtual Reality Geographical Information Systems: a computer-based system for capturing, integrating, manipulating, and displaying data using digitized maps. Virtual Reality: interactive, computer-generated, three-dimensional graphics delivered to the user via a head-mounted display.

Geographic Information System

GIS for existing land use

GISMO GISMO is a geographical information system developed for the city of Corvallis, Oregon. Clicking on the link above will present an interactive demonstration of GISMO.

Virtual Reality

Technology of Data Glove

Virtual Reality manipulation with data glove

Driving Simulator

Flight Simulator Internal view External view

VR Head-Mounted Display at Dentist’s Office

Virtual Tour of a museum

Virtual Reality (continued)

The VirtuSphere VirtuSphere provides a mechanical basis for truly immersive virtual reality environments, permitting the user to move about in virtual space by simply walking. The device consists of a large hollow sphere which is mounted on a specially designed platform that allows the sphere to rotate freely as the user walks in any direction. (Note that the open hatch in the picture above is closed during use.) The user wears a head-mounted display, which provides the virtual environment. Sensors under the sphere provide subject speed and direction to the computer running the simulation. Users can even interact with objects in virtual space using a special manipulator.

VR Body Suit

9.5 Intelligent Systems Intelligent systems Artificial intelligence (AI) Intelligent systems is a term that describes the various commercial applications of AI. Artificial intelligence (AI) is a subfield of computer science concerned with: * studying the thought processes of humans * recreating those processes via machines, such as computer and robots.

Expert Systems Expertise Expert systems (ESs) Star Trek Voyager’s doctor: a 24th century expert system Expertise refers to the extensive, task-specific knowledge acquired from training, reading and experience. Expert systems (ESs) attempt to mimic human experts by applying expertise in a specific domain. Can support decision makers or completely replace them.

Expert Systems (continued) The transfer of expertise from an expert to a computer and then to a user involves four activities: Knowledge acquisition Knowledge representation Knowledge inferencing Knowledge transfer Knowledge acquisition: Knowledge is from experts or from documented sources. Knowledge representation: Acquired knowledge is organized as rules or frames (objective-oriented) and stored electronically in a knowledge base. Knowledge inferencing: Given the necessary expertise stored in the knowledge base, the computer is programmed so that it can make inferences. The reasoning function is performed in a component called the inference engine, which is the brain of ES. Knowledge transfer: The inferenced expertise is transferred to the user in the form of a recommendation.

The Components of Expert Systems Knowledge base Inference engine User interface Blackboard Explanation subsystem Knowledge base contains knowledge necessary for understanding, formulating and solving problems. Inference engine is a computer program that provides a methodology for reasoning and formulating conclusions. User interface enables users to communicate with the computer Blackboard is an area of working memory set aside for the description of a current problem. Explanation subsystem explains its recommendations.

Structure and Process of an Expert System

Natural Language Processing & Voice Technologies Natural language processing (NLP) Natural language understanding / speech (voice) recognition Natural language generation/voice synthesis Natural language processing (NLP): Communicating with a computer in English or whatever language you may speak. Natural language understanding/speech (voice) recognition: The ability of a computer to comprehend instructions given in ordinary language, via the keyboard or by voice. Natural language generation/voice synthesis: Technology that enables computers to produce ordinary language, by “voice” or on the screen, so that people can understand computers more easily.

Neural Networks Neural network is a system of programs and data structures that approximates the operation of the human brain. Neural networks are particularly good at recognizing subtle, hidden and newly emerging patterns within complex data as well as interpreting incomplete inputs.

Neural Network

Fuzzy Logic Fuzzy logic deals with the uncertainties by simulating the process of human reasoning, allowing the computer to behave less precisely and logically than conventional computers do. Involves decision in gray areas. Uses creative decision-making processes.

Chapter Closing Case GPS sensor