Commodities Outlook 2018 Crude Oil

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Presentation transcript:

Commodities Outlook 2018 Crude Oil

Crude Prices Last Year Source : Investing.com

Bullish Factors OPEC and non OPEC producers have adhered to quotas surprisingly well for a surprisingly long period of time Crude and product inventories have reduced significantly Geo Political Uncertainty always remains a factor that push prices up As also natural disasters The nature of financial funds themselves are geared to pushing the market up

Crude Stocks in the US Source : EIA Supply Estimates

Global Gasoline Stocks Source : Reuters / EIA Supply Estimates

US Gasoline Stocks Source : EIA Supply Estimates

ARA Gasoline Stocks Source : Reuters

Singapore Gasoline Stocks Source : Reuters

Global Distillate Stocks Source : Reuters / EIA Supply Estimates

US Distillate Stocks Source : EIA Supply Estimates

ARA Gasoil Stocks Source : Reuters

Singapore Distillate Stocks Source : Reuters

Bearish Factors 2/3rds of the entire production cut has been offset by new supply Funds are overwhelmingly long Products in the US seem to be adequate Chinese demand is going to be growing only at 4.6% China may end up with a fuel product surplus of 45 million tons Dec-16 Jan-18 Difference Libya 630 970 340 Nigeria 1540 1670 130 USA 8766 9919 1153 Venezuela 2130 1770 -360 Total 1263

Concluding Thoughts No buyer of oil has ever been stuck for a cargo of oil The oil market is probably the only market in the world where we cheer a bunch of hoarders!

Thank you See our daily blogpost on the markets at http://trifectaconsultants.net/oil-price-digest/ Email sukrit@trifectaconsultants.net if you would like to be added to our subscription list.