Filip JORDÁN, Karel KABELE, Jan HENSEN poster P3-16 1 TECHNIQUE OF UNCERTAINTY AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS FOR SUSTAINABLE BUILDING ENERGY SYSTEMS PERFORMANCE CALCULATIONS Petr KOTEK Filip JORDÁN, Karel KABELE, Jan HENSEN Czech Technical University in Prague, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Czech Republic Technische Universiteit Eindhoven, Building Physics & Systems, Netherlands 9 ID609

Introduction The crucial in the optimization methods of energy consumption are uncertainty and sensitivity analyses (UA & SA) and their results. The MonteCarlo (MCA) method was used to find out the most influential parameters of a thermal energy simulation model and simple analytical model of HVAC system 2 repeated simulations 9 ID609

(crude MonteCarlo method) Procedure – case study ASHREA BESTEST case600 was chosen x48 3 sampling random sampling (crude MonteCarlo method) software procedure sample matrix S = 6 simulations 9 ID609

x48 Procedure – case study ASHREA BESTEST case600 was chosen 3 sampling LatinHypercube sampling reduce number of simulations software procedure 1 2 3 4 5 6 sample matrix S = 6 simulations 9 ID609

UA & SA SimLab external model MS Excel IES<VE> Softwares for UA & SA - procedure xn inputs with uncertainty UA & SA yk outputs SimLab pre-processor model execution post-processor sampling 4 sample matrix.sam Inputs for simulations software procedure external model outputs.out MS Excel outputs from simulations 200 automatic simulations heat losses heat gains IES<VE> 9 ID609

heating and cooling demand during the whole year THERMAL SIMULATION heating and cooling demand during the whole year heat losses results for main values of inputs heat gains gains [kw] losses the coldest day time 5 9 ID609

heating and cooling demand during the whole year with uncertainty THERMAL SIMULATION heating and cooling demand during the whole year with uncertainty heat losses results with uncertainty bound from 200 simulations heat gains SA from SimLab 5 9 ID609

HVAC SYSTEMS AND CALCULATIONS heat losses heat gains FCU VAV 6 9 ID609

HVAC SYSTEMS AND CALCULATIONS heat losses heat gains FCU VAV LOADS with uncertainty bound LOADS with uncertainty bound AHU AHU 7 FCU VAV-box 9 ID609

These parameters can be optimized with GenOpt (TrnOpt), BeOpt,… RESULTS by using VAV system we save energy, but according to the uncertainty in inputs it can be less effective than FCU UA SA with combination of energy simulation and MonteCarlo simulations we can find out the most sensitive parameters for constructions and for HVAC components and settings. These parameters can be optimized with GenOpt (TrnOpt), BeOpt,… 8 9 ID609

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION International end of presentation DANK U WEL VOOR UW AANDACHT DĚKUJI ZA POZORNOST THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION 9 ID609