Retail Analysis Retail market analysis is a tool for identifying retail market trends within a local community. Promotional Material for International Council of Shopping Center type events Strategic Planning

Demographics and Psychographics ESRI Community Analyst

Buxton Report

Assess the Size and Shape of the Region’s Trade Area Socio-demographics and purchasing power of the population 5 year sales tax trends (State Department of Revenue) Reilly’s law Trade area capture Trade (sales) potential Pull factors and trends List and map of retailers (Nexis Uni) 8. Location Quotients for non- base sector (NAICS 23, 42, 44-45, 51, 52, 53, 56, 61. 62, 71, 72) 9. Leakage (EMSI Regional Requirements) 10. Traffic counts (Department of Transportation) 11. Commuting patterns (US Census) Absolute change, Percentage change, and Cross Area Analysis

Socio-demographics Population demographics from EMSI, StateBook, Chmura, U.S. Census Community Facts, Data USA, etc. Median Household Income Population Median Age Poverty Rate Median Property Value $36, 555 34,373 36.5 22.8% $77,900 Source: https://datausa.io/

Socio-Demographics and Purchasing Power of the Population Population and trend of growth Age breakdown of population Race breakdown of population Earnings breakdown of population Educational attainment breakdown of population Gender breakdown of population U.S Census Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics https://lehd.ces.census.gov/ On the Map https://onthemap.ces.census.gov/

Annual Reports (Gross Sales Trends) Mississippi Department of Revenue Statistics and Reports http://www.dor.ms.gov/Statistics/Pages/default.aspx Annual Reports (Gross Sales Trends) Check to see if your state has similar reports

LQs for Retail Sector EMSI Industry Table NAIC Description 2011 Jobs 2016 Jobs 2011 - 2016 % Change 2016 LQ 44 Retail Trade 1,647 1,752 6% 1.39

The Walmart Effect Pull Factor Map of Mississippi Counties

Leakage Analysis EMSI: Regional Demand for Industry NAICS Demand for Demand met In-region % Demand met In-region Demand met by Imports % Demand met by Imports Total Demand 445110 Supermarkets and Other Grocery (except Convenience) Stores $370,836 2.8% $12,813,289 97.2% $13,184,125 441110 New Car Dealers $315,838 2.7% $11,348,739 97.3% $11,664,576 446110 Pharmacies and Drug Stores $88,728 1.4% $6,138,348 98.6% $6,227,076 443142 Electronics Stores $549,598 11.9% $4,066,754 88.1% $4,616,352 444110 Home Centers $1,638,294 41.3% $2,328,973 58.7% $3,967,267 447110 Gasoline Stations with Convenience Stores $2,794,218 76.1% $876,684 23.9% $3,670,902 444190 Other Building Material Dealers $118,059 4.8% $2,360,474 95.2% $2,478,533 441310 Automotive Parts and Accessories Stores $188,375 8.4% $2,046,696 91.6% $2,235,071 442110 Furniture Stores $55,725 2.9% $1,887,641 97.1% $1,943,366

Trade Area Analysis To tell how many customers are drawn to a particular community to shop for a certain type of product at any given time.

Trade Area Calculations Potential sales= Local Pop X State per capita sale x Local PCI/State PCI Pull Factor = (Local Sales/Local Pop)/(State Sales/State Pop) Trade Area Capture=Actual Sales/(state sales per capita*Local PCI/State PCI Potential Sales=Local pop* State per capita sales x Local PCI/State PCI

Trade Area Calculations for Panola Sources: U.S. Bureau of Census, State and County QuickFacts Panola Population 34,161 PCI $19,525 State population 2,988,726 PCI $21,057 Mississippi State Tax Commission, Annual Report, FY 2016 State retail sales $26,582,733,525 Panola retail sales $306,462,141

Potential sales Potential sales= Local Pop X State per capita sale x Local PCI/State PCI Panola Population 34,161 PCI $19,525 State population 2,988,726 PCI $21,057 State retail sales $26,582,733,525 Panola retail sales $306,462,141 State per capita sale = $26,582,733,525/ 2,988,726 = $8,894 34,161* $8,894 * $19,525/ $21,057 = $282M

PULL FACTOR To determine the portion of customers a community draws from outside its boundaries. Pull factors should be compared over several time periods to determine trends. While not a general occurrence, the pull factor could be less than one.

Reilly’s Law of Retail Gravitation Defines trade area boundaries between two cities Shows point of indifference between two cities (point of indifference)

Reilly's law of retail gravitation Population Drivetime Distance Divide Batesville 7,391 Sardis 1,655 13 min 9 miles Oxford 23,290 30 min 26 miles

Population Drivetime Distance Divide Batesville 7,391 Sardis 1,655 13 min 9 miles Oxford 23,290 30 min 26 miles

Huff Model The "Huff" model, which allows for multiple attributes and retail centers

List of Retailers Nexus-Uni Bull Market, Inc. 585 Highway 51 S Batesville Mississippi 38606-2544 United States 662-563-7020 - - - PRIVATE - SUBSIDIARY - 5411 Grocery stores

MDOT Traffic Count Application

66% of Marshall County citizens work outside the county Commuting Patterns 66% of Marshall County citizens work outside the county Source: U.S. Census. Residence County to Workplace County Flows

21% of Marshall Co. jobs are performed by workers who live in other counties Source: U.S. Census. Residence County to Workplace County Flows

EMSI’s Commuter Data

Professor of Economic Development and how Chad R. Miller Ph.D. Professor of Economic Development Master of Science in Economic Development Program College of Business & Economic Development www.usm.edu/economic-development Tel: 601-266-6666