Emission Projections for 2020

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Presentation transcript:

Emission Projections for 2020 Janusz Cofala, Markus Amann International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) Emission Projections for 2020 Results from a study for the European Environment Agency (Air Pollution Outlooks and Evaluation: Integrated Assessment Methodologies and Tools Applied to Air Pollution and Greenhouse Gases. Report for the European Environment Agency, December 2000)

Assumptions for 2010 and 2020 Activity levels: Emission controls: “Shared Analysis” energy scenario of DG Energy for EU-15 and accession countries for 2010 and 2020 Emission controls: For 2010: Gothenburg Protocol For 2020: Measures implied by the emission ceilings of the Gothenburg Protocol applied to all new capital stock

SO2 Emissions in Europe

NOx Emissions in Europe

VOC Emissions in Europe

NH3 Emissions in Europe

Acidification Area of Unprotected Ecosystems

Eutrophication Area of Unprotected Ecosystems

Unprotected Ecosystems 2020 % of ecosystems area Acidification Eutrophication

Excess Ozone Exposure (Health) above WHO Guidelines

Excess Ozone Exposure (Vegetation) above Critical Levels

Ozone Exposure in 2020 ppm.hours AOT60 Excess AOT40

Conclusions Emission ceilings of the Gothenburg Protocol in 2010 imply certain emission control measures/legislation The same measures/legislation, if applied to the capital stock renewed after 2010, will lead in many cases to even lower national emissions in 2020 These ‘autonomous’ improvements will not be sufficient to reach the environmental long-term targets by 2020

Slides of this presentation On the Internet Slides of this presentation in Powerpoint format are available at http://www.iiasa.ac.at/~rains