Finnish Forest Industries Federation Sawn softwood Mr. Matti Sihvonen Vice President, Wood products Finnish Forest Industries Federation

Sawn Softwood Market report Construction Europe North America Japan Production Prices Conclusions

Lähde: Euroconstruct 02/2000 Construction in Western Europe New residential R & R Non-residential 5 4 3 2 % change 1 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 -1 -2 01/01/2019 Lähde: Euroconstruct 02/2000

UK: Housing starts (1-7 +2 %) units 20.9.2000 Lähde: DETR

France: Building permits (1-7/00 +5 %) units 65 000 60 000 55 000 50 000 45 000 40 000 35 000 30 000 25 000 20 000 5 7 9 11 1/99 3 5 7 9 11 1/00 3 5 7 4.9.2000 Lähde: DAEI

Housing starts USA (1-8 00/99 -3 %) 1000 units 2200 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 Untitled1 / 1 7.10.00

Lähde: Japan Wood Prod. Inform. & Res. Center Housing starts in Japan 1000 units 180 All Wooden 160 140 1-6/00 +2 % 120 100 80 1-6/00 -6 % 60 40 20 01-95 04-95 07-95 10-95 01-96 04-96 07-96 10-96 01-97 04-97 07-97 10-97 01-98 04-98 07-98 10-98 01-99 04-99 07-99 10-99 01-00 04-00 04.09.2000 Lähde: Japan Wood Prod. Inform. & Res. Center

Production

Sawn saftwood production in major European producer countries mill. m3 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 BALTIC STATES AUSTRIA FINLAND SWEDEN GERMANY 1990 1995 1998 1999 2000e

Total sawn softwood production in Austria, Baltic states, Finland, Germany and Sweden mill. m3 58 56 54 52 50 48 46 44 42 1995 1998 1999 6.10.2000 Source: ECE / FAO

Sawn softwood production in the EU mill. m3 66 65 64 63 62 61 60 59 58 57 1995 1996 1997 1998 6.10.2000 Source: ECE / FAO

Sawn softwood timber production in USA and Canada mio. m3 mio. m3 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 160 150 140 130 120 110 1990 1996 1998 2000 100 1995 1997 1999 Untitled1 / 1 8.10.00

Sawn timber production Finland +9 % 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 2000 1999 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Month 18.9.2000

Sawn Timber production in USA (1-6 99/00 +3,5 %) mio. m3 mio. m3 2 4 6 8 8 1999 2000 6 4 2 Untitled1 / 1 7.10.00 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Source: Council of Forest Industries Monthly sawn softwood production in Canada (1-6 2,9 %) 1000 m3 7000 2000 1999 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 6.10.2000 Source: Council of Forest Industries

Sawn timber production in Japan (1-7 99/00 -4 %) 1000 m3 2000 2000 1999 2000 1500 1500 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 500 1000 Untitled1 / 1 7.10.00

Prices

USA weekly lumber prices framing lumber composite price Source: Random Lengths 38/2000 USD/1000bft 600 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 9201 9301 9401 9501 9601 9701 9801 9901 2000/1 Untitled1 / 1 7.10.00

SPF FIM/m3 week 2x4 std&btr kd western s-p-f Source: Random Lengths 38/2000 FIM/m3 FIM/m3 2000 2000 1800 1800 1600 1600 1400 1400 1200 1200 1000 1000 800 800 600 600 400 400 9201 9301 9401 9501 9601 9701 9801 9901 2000/1 week Untitled1 / 1 7.10.00

18.9.2000 Jäsenkysely: elokuu

USA mortgage rates (last month 08 /2000) % 14 Variable 30 y fixed 12 Untitled1 / 1 7.10.00 USA mortgage rates (last month 08 /2000) % 14 Variable 30 y fixed 12 10 8 6 4 8501 8701 8901 9101 9301 9501 9701 9901

USA housing starts and interest rates (08/2000) 1000 units % 1800 6 7 8 9 10 11 Starts 30 year interest rates 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 9001 9101 9201 9301 9401 9501 9601 9701 9801 9901 1 2000 Untitled1 / 1 7.10.00

(1-7 + 10 %) 6.10.2000 Source: JAWIC

The share of European softwood timber of Japanese imports % 25 20 15 10 5 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Conclusions

Sawn timber production There has been a substantial long term production increase during the last 10 years in Europe and in North America. As a result of the storms in central Europe the production of softwood timber has increased 15 % ? Unjustified German subsidies to gigantic sawmills in the former East Germany. Also the production in Russia has increased by 15 %. In Finland the increase is 9 %. In the USA, Canada and Sweden the increase is somewhat lower 3-5 %. Only in Japan the production keeps on decreasing

Construction, interest rates, currency The risk of overheating and inflation have resulted in increased interest rates. Consumer confidence and residential construction might collapse? Presidential elections in the USA: What effect does it have in the economy next spring? The relation between the EURO and the USD ? Russia ? ...