WHAT IS MICHAEL MOORE SAYING? What’s his puzzle? What was his dependent variable? How is it operationalized? What is his theory and the main independent variable of interest? (i.e. What is the causal relationship among mass-levels of fear, gun ownership and child violence?) What counter-hypotheses does he test? What is his method for collective evidence and supports or rejects his thesis? Are their better methods he could have used? Better evidence? How well does he test his own argument? Are there other hypotheses that should be examined? Next several slides… Moore’s argument that Americans are unusually afraid is just plan wrong. Despite the social science look of his documentary, he ignored the best evidence and cherry-picked support. Most pundits you see on TV and on the popular internet politics website do this.

Is Moore correct about the number of deaths and causes? Nearly 12K (Moore) or over 30K?... Why is Columbine perhaps a poor “case study”? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/gun-deaths/

How Afraid Are We?

WHY do AMERICANS “HATE” POLITICS? Friday’s discussion: Is anger bad, or is it helpful? Are everyday Americans really all that angry?: Operationalizing a concept with variables and: Here’s what Pew and Gallup do: http://www.people-press.org/2015/11/23/public-trust-in-government-1958-2015/ http://www.gallup.com/poll/1669/general-mood-country.aspx What are we mad at? At the “federal” government, specific “institutions,” at political elites as a class, at the political system? or specific politicians? Globalization? Outsiders? Moral decline? Lost opportunity?

Esquire 2017

The Feds and You (2006 vs 2013): More data

The Feds and You (2006 vs 2013): Content, Angry, or Threatened?

The Feds and You (1997-2017): Content, Angry, or Threatened?

The Feds and You (1997-2017): Content, Angry, or Threatened?

Who are we angry at?

Really more angry than we used to be? (FEDEARLIST 10) A little history… Who were the Founders, what problems were they dealing with, and why are we so confused about them today? What did the Founders think about human beings and politicians?... Which group did they trust to draw up the US Constitution? To amend it? Why did the Founders think that people would always be angry (that we’d have factions) What was the Founders solution for anger in an ideal political society? Why did they argue that a larger republic with a stronger central government in DC was the way to go?

Why might we be angrier than we used to be? Why does everything seem more political than it used to be? Is it really, especially if we look at a broader time span? What might have changed in recent decades, and how can we measure civility over time to see if something is new? Shea & Sproveri How have media and technology changes impacted views on politics? Why does Ezra Klein, for one, believe that we are divided by political culture as much as we are by policy issues? How does today’s highly transparent political environment impact policy debate and truth in politics (In what sense does Klein sound like James Madison)? Why does Reich (optional video) think we can’t now even have real debates to address our anger? (1. We mostly live and get information in siloed, echo chambers with no arbitrators; 2. there’s no agreement on the good society and working together to get it; 3. econ. concentration = rabid politics) Are the issues at stake today bigger than they have been in the past? America’s political place in the world, the underlying fundamentals of our economy, our religiosity and worldview, and the role government going forward…