Early estimates of ESSPROS main indicators DG EMPL policy needs Endre GYORGY DG EMPL. A4 17 May 2018, Luxembourg Dear Colleagues, Welcome to today's workshop. My name is Endre Gyorgy and I work at Unit A4 of the DG Employment of the European Commission, responsible for thematic analysis. In the following brief presentation I would like to underline why timely ESSPROSS data is essential for the work of DG Employment.

Importance of timeliness for DG EMPL Aim: Receiving ESSPROS early estimates at T+10 months Country reports and other products of the European Semester Reports and analysis Assessment of DG EMPL proposals Reports, including ESDE with social protection chapter Social protection expenditure as a macro stabilisation tool is key In this presentation, I will walk you through the activities an products of DG Employment for which timely ESSPROSS data is especially important. If we could receive early estimates by the end of September of the previous year, that would make a difference for our activities. Earlier, my colleagues presented to you a complete list of DG Employment products. Today, in the interest of time, I will focus only on products related to the European Semester project and a sample of essential policy documents. At the end of the presentation, I will show that thematically speaking, the most important benefit of timely ESSPROS estimates is enhanced analysis of social protection as a macro stabilisation instrument.

ESSPROS in European Semester 1. Source: https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/2018-european-semester-timeline_en.pdf First, a simplified timeline of the European Semester process. I would like to stress that the central country-specific analytical product of the Semester process, the Country Reports are published in February each year. Working back from that date, it is clear that we can only incoroporate data into that document which is available some months earlier, that is in the autumn of the previous year. It is noteworthy that each year a broad set of thematic documents is produced as part of the Semester process. Among them, the factsheet on social inclusion relies particularly heavily on ESSPROS data. Also: Euopean Semester thematic factsheet on social inclusion

ESSPROS in European Semester 2. Each country report has an annex composed of statistical tables. This is an excrept of the 2018 report for our host country Luxembourg. As you can see, ESSPROSS data are among the few for which the T-2, in this case the 2016, figures are unavailable. Source: https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/2018-european-semester-country-report-luxembourg-en.pdf, p.55

Reports and analysis 1. In the context of the European Pillar of Social rights, several recent proposals by the Commission relate to social protection. As part of the background analysis for those proposals, ESSPROSS data are essential. The figure shown here is taken from the impact assessment for the proposal on access to social protection. It was published in March this year, but it included somewhat outdated ESSPROS data. Source: Impact assessment for 2018 Proposal on access to social protection for workers and the self-employed

Reports and analysis 2: ESDE This is a graph to be included in the 2018 edition of the Employment and Social Developments in Europe publication that will appear in the summer.

SP expenditure in macro stablisation 1. As I have pointed out in the introduction, the area where timeliness of ESSPROS data is particularly important is macro-analysis. Social protection expenditure varies between one sixth and one third of the GDP of EU Member States. So we are talking about a substantial macro aggregate. A key question is how it is effectively it fulfills its stabilisation role. That should mean increased expenditure during a downturn and contained spending during a boom. This figure from the 2015 Employment and Social Developments publication shows how social protection expenditure reacted to the crisis. Note, in the same publication, a function-by-function analysis of social spending was also included. That underlines the importance of the availability of decomposed data, too. Source: ESDE 2015 p.277

SP expenditure in macro stablisation 2. Similarly, a country-to-country comparison about the pro-cyclical or anti-cyclical nature of social protection expenditure can be carried out. Available early estimates would be an asset for this type of exercise Source: Ameco and ESSPROS

Conclusion High expectations from today's workshop T+10 months availability of ESSPROSS early estimates would be a benefit for our analytical work, in particular for macro-analysis within the European Semester I welcome all of you to a continued discussion