Figure 4 Post-test probability as a function of pre-test

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Presentation transcript:

Figure 4 Post-test probability as a function of pre-test probability for different test result interval-specific likelihood ratios Figure 4 | Post-test probability as a function of pre-test probability for different test result interval-specific likelihood ratios. The figure exemplifies how a graph can be used in practice to help in the interpretation of test results. The graph shows the post-test probability for anti-neutrophil cytoplasmic antibody (ANCA)-associated vasculitis (AAV) as a function of the pre-test probability for test results with a likelihood ratio of 0.1, 1, 10, 60 and ∞. In a previous study78, ANCA test result intervals that have a similar spread of likelihood ratios were delimited for several commercial assays. The equations to calculate post-test probability based on pre-test probability and likelihood ratio are: post-test odds = pre-test odds x likelihood ratio; odds = probability/(1−probability); probability = odds/(1+odds). The graph shows that for a patient with a pre-test probability of AAV of 7%, the post-test probability will be 0.7%, 7%, 43%, 82% and 100% for a test result with a likelihood ratio of 0.1, 1, 10, 60 and ∞, respectively. Bossuyt, X. et al. (2017) Revised 2017 international consensus on testing of ANCAs in granulomatosis with polyangiitis and microscopic polyangiitis Nat. Rev. Rheumatol. doi:10.1038/nrrheum.2017.140