What are the lead indicators telling us And what does it mean? Kadi Taylor – Head, Strategic Engagement and Government Relations TIQ’s 2nd Data Hang Out – September 2018

What the lead indictors are telling us Offshore visa grants 3% in 2017-18  from 11% in 2016-17 7% Offshore visa grants are our most lead indicator of growth trends as they represent new students coming into the market. (VET) 9% -8% 2% -12%

What the lead indictors are telling us – QLD Offshore visa grants for QLD were 6% in 2017-18  from 17% in 2016-17 13% (ELICOS) -12% Offshore visa grants are our most lead indicator of growth trends as they represent new students coming into the market. 35% 0% -8%

Top 6 to 15 – All offshore visa grants South East Asian markets  and South Asia  -7% -3% -15% 3% -12% 13% 23% -13% -37% 6%

Independent ELICOS visa grants Brazil, Colombia and Thailand – 3 of top 5 declining growth. Overall decline of -8% -17% -3% 0% -23% 4%

QLD – Independent ELICOS visa grants Top 3 source countries are all in decline – Brazil, Colombia, Japan Citizenship Country 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 % change Brazil 1610 2112 2440 3808 3028 -20% Colombia 1066 1097 1319 1831 1568 -14% Japan 615 722 977 1098 1010 -8% Spain 385 292 449 629 729 16% Thailand 524 374 448 692 613 -11% Chile 204 142 218 253 308 22% Korea, South 363 278 274 259 272 5% Switzerland 203 268 242 209 Taiwan 277 258 257 186 131 -30% Saudi Arabia 333 351 160 90 130 44%

VET sector visa grants Nepal, China and India are top 3 – up 155%, 240% and 66% respectively 155% 240% 66% -34% 20%

QLD – VET sector visa grants Overall growth of 35%. Nepal and China have grown by 759% and 564% respectively – while Brazil has declined -25% Citizenship Country 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 % change Nepal 4 7 62 227 1949 759% China (excl SARs) 30 28 41 152 1009 564% Brazil 145 253 448 686 517 -25% India 24 100 326 285 485 70% Korea, South 313 548 475 558 367 -34% Philippines 245 242 247 200 357 79% Spain 124 206 223 332 347 5% Taiwan 183 374 508 334 243 -27% Japan 123 161 167 184 188 2% United States of America 150 81 102 134 -7%

Schools sector visa grants Overall decline of -12% in offshore visa grants in the schools sector China, Vietnam and Italy all declining -21% -9% 2% -4% 5%

QLD – schools sector visa grants Overall decline of -8%. Top 3 all in decline Citizenship Country 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 % change China (excl SARs) 362 625 697 912 677 -26% Germany 477 510 483 460 428 -7% Italy 194 232 304 373 322 -14% Japan 183 131 211 237 12% Brazil 154 239 185 177 213 20% Vietnam 54 51 58 139 157 13% Korea, South 84 80 87 144 71% Hong Kong 83 98 126 132 102 -23% Papua New Guinea 127 142 114 73 -36% Norway 42 41 91 72 67

HE Offshore visa grants China, India and Nepal are top 3 – China only growing at 1% 1% 31% 19% -10% -16%

QLD – HE Offshore visa grants China, India and Nepal are top 3 – Strong growth from South Asia Citizenship Country 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 % change China (excl SARs) 3357 3610 4328 5335 5968 12% India 5135 3150 2989 4092 5254 28% Nepal 1422 519 1030 1719 2219 29% Malaysia 661 692 699 547 467 -15% Singapore 537 456 481 439 -6% Sri Lanka 125 121 144 269 429 59% Canada 505 421 392 386 426 10% Hong Kong 435 453 523 514 407 -21% Korea, South 322 304 305 325 324 0% Vietnam 804 443 365 310

The canary in the coalmine continues negative trend 10% 10% -1% YTD June 2018 data 0% 4% YTD June 2018 ELICOS commencements continue negative trend of past months