Sustainability Freshman Inquiry Jan. 25, 2011 Jeff Fletcher See also: Daily Log Page

Logistics Extra Credit Opportunities 2nd annual PSU Earth Day Festival Planning Thursday, January 20th, 1:00pm in SMITH 338 THIS Thursday, Jan 27, 6 – 7:30 p.m.  Chris Paine, Lincoln Hall, room 175 http://www.pdx.edu/news/pge-and-psu-bring-filmmaker-chris-paine-to-portland-jan-27-28 Read Kolbert Chapters 8, 9, 10, afterward, and chronology for next Tuesday Reading notes Mercy Corp Fieldtrip Thursday Feb. 17, 2-5pm (including transportation time), $2.50 each Attendance HEAT questions Signup for 1 on 1 meetings Bring any old work, reading notes, questions Midterm next Tuesday, Feb. 1 Testing as a learning tool (NY Times)

Voluntary Simplicity Free PSU Weekly Discussion Courses on Voluntary Simplicity Start Feb 1 Do you feel stressed, harried, broke? Explore ways to live simpler and more sustainably. Meet in small groups to discuss slowing down and creating a more ecological life. Join us for a free informal 4 week discussion course on Voluntary Simplicity  offered in one hour sessions throughout February sponsored by Northwest Earth Institute and the Capstone Program Mondays, 11 to noon ISS conference room 4th and Market  contact: pdx.simple@gmail.com Tuesdays 10 to 11am Chit-Chat Cafe  contact: livingsimplepdx@gmail.com Tuesdays 7 to 8pm 105 Smith Hall  contact: dso@pdx.edu or rodneyd28@yahoo.com Fridays 11 to noon ISS conference room 4th and Market  contact:  rschultz@pdx.edu

How Do We Decide What to Believe in Science? Bags of poker chips A, B, and C Represent differences or are they the same? Could be analogy for: Deaths: with medicine A, vs. placebo B, vs. no treatment C White chips are correct predictions of coin flips by blindfolded ESP “experts” A, chance B, a pet sea lion C temperature without human CO2 A, temp. with human CO2 B, temp. with human CO2 plus carbon offsets C In pairs: How would you decide whether you can claim that A, B, and C are the same or different? Be as precise (quantitative) as you can

Complex Systems Yield Surprises Most models of systems are linear Change in state predicted to be proportional to change in inputs Most real and complex systems are non-linear Systems with feedback are often unpredictable Small causes can have big effects Butterfly effect from Chaos theory Chaos Demos Catastrophe theory: state is not reversible by reversing cause Logistic Equation: xt+1 = r xt (1-xt) Current financial crisis is great example Emergence

Examples from Atmosphere Is CO2 effect proportional to its abundance in atmosphere? What proportion is CO2? Caution in reading graphs What is ppm in percent? nitrogen (78%), oxygen (21%) and argon (.93%) = 99.93% of atmosphere! Methane also has disproportionate effects Ozone hole: example of unintended consequences and irreversibility (video 2:20) Big hole until 2017, then hole will start to shrink; back to 1980 level in year 2070! Example of something not easily reversible, directionality But also example of world working together to solve a problem!

Time Machines? In groups Identify different methods presented in the text so far for estimating past conditions What systems states in the past have been analyzed? What methods have been used?

Catastrophe: Time Machines How do we know about ancient atmosphere, temperatures, weather, fauna? Greenland Ice Cores (also Antarctic Ice Cores) Atmosphere: trapped air bubbles Temperature: isotopic composition of the ice (isotopes of hydrogen and oxygen different ratios depending on temperature) Lakebed sediment pollen samples What kind of plants were growing at a particular location in the past Ocean and lakebed sediments for wind blown substances (e.g. dolomite)

Exercise Each player starts with $100 and can choose to invest from $0 to their current balance. In each round, each member’s investment is subtracted from each member’s balance The total of all the investments from the current round are doubled and then divide evenly among all the players This gives each player a new balance to start a new round We will do several rounds—please do not get ahead of (or behind) me. I will announce when each round starts and stops Player with highest final score wins a prize There is no communication allowed between players

Bad/Good Apples Homework 2 This American Life Episode #370 http://www.thisamericanlife.org/radio-archives/episode/370/ruining-it-for-the-rest-of-us Take notes on: the main types of behaviors identified what support/examples are provided any ideas that come to mind related to your own experience any thing else you think is relevant