Space Weather: Science, Effects, Forecasts and Services. * What is Space Weather? - Solar drivers * What are the effects? - Technological systems - Human health * How to forecast it? - Observations - AI methods * Services - International Programs - Vendors * Today’s Space Weather Henrik Lundstedt Swedish Institute of Space Physics Solar-Terrestrial Physics Division, Lund

So let’s start with the Sun What is Space Weather? Space weather refers to conditions in space, that can influence technological systems, and can endanger human life or health. In Lund we focuse on conditions driven by the Sun. So let’s start with the Sun

The Sun Diameter: Mass: Density: The Sun consists of: Temperature: 1 390 000 km (109 times Earth) Mass: 1.99x1030 kg (330 000 times Earth) Density: Core 151x103 kg/m-3 Average 1.41x103 kg/m-3 The Sun consists of: H (about 90%) Helium (about. 10%) C,N,O (about 0.1%) Temperature: Core 15 milj Photosphere 5800 K Chromosphere 4300-104 K Corona 1-30 milj K 4 protons --> He + 2 positrons + 2 neutrinos + 2 fotons (26.2 MeV)

Solar waves tell us about the Sun’s interior and show us the solar magnetic activity dynamo.

The solar magnetic field emerges thru the surface, and produces sunspots and regions of complex magnetic.

The Energy in the Twisted Magnetic Field can be Released and Enormous Explosions occur -Solar Flares An X20 X-ray solar flare (EIT/SOHO) April2, 2001

Coronal Mass Ejections as Seen by SOHO Halo CME of July 14, 2000 CMEs are the ways the Sun gets rid of its magnetic field globally in huge loops. Largest Mass Ejected: 5 - 50 billion tons Frequency of Occurrence: 3.5/day events (solar activity max), 0.2 events/day (min) Speed: 200-2000 km/s

Detecting CMEs in Radio Wavelengths

Long-Term Solar Cycle Activity as described by the Sunspot Number

Low Solar Activity - Cold Climate High Solar Activity -Warm Climate? Cold climate inEngland and Holland during Little Ice Age. Warm climate during Middle Ages. Solar activity during 5000 years from C14 measurements in old trees.

A Possible Explanation of the Solar Activity and Climate Relation Many sunspots - high solar activity Cosmic ray flux decreases Less clouds are formed Higher temperature - warmer climate The solar magnetic flux has increased with 131% since 1901.

Solar Evolution and Climate Global warming, Little Ice Age or Full Ice Age? The Sun’s coronal magnetic field has increased with 131% since 1901. The Sun’s brightness increases (fusion) with 1% per 150 million years (2 degrees). The coupling between the large-scale magnetic field (11year cycle) and small small-scale might explain the Maunder minimum.

Besides climate changes, the Sun is also causing aurora In Stockholm July 15-16, 2000 In Italy April 6-7 and July 15-16, 200

Space Weather Effects on Technological Systems

Satellite anomalies of July 14-16, 2000 event The proton event caused problems for ACE, SOHO, Ørsted, Japanese X-ray satellite, star trackers on board commercial satellites. Proton flux (pfu) > 10 MeV, 24000 pfu (July 15, 12.30 UT). Third largest! Largest 43 000 pfu, (March 24, 1991). Second 40 000 pfu (October 20, 1989).

Radiation risks and aviation The radiation exposure is doubled every 2.2 km. Solar flares can increase the radiation by 20-30 times. Pilots get cancer more often than average. One out of 300 passengers on a high latitude flight develops cancer after an intense proton event. The intensive solarflare of April 2, 2001, which caused major communication problems also made Continental Airlines to change their route between Hong Kong and New York. New EU law: Pregnant (aircrew) should not be exposed to more than 1 (1-6) millisievert/year We in Lund collaborate with SSI and KI to develop forecasts of radiation doses.

Power Systems are effected at times of geomagnetic storms This severe electrojet caused the failure of Quebec’s power system March 13-14, 1989. One of the generators of OKG’s (Sydkraft’s) nuclear plants was heated due to the geomagnetically induced current in March 13-14 1989. A damaged transformer (e.g. July 15-16, 2001).

How to forecast the Space Weather and Effects? We need real-time data Warnings Forecasts Solar observations with SOHO give warnings 1-3 Days ahead. A replacement of SOHO after 2003 is needed. A solar radar could play an important role. Solar wind observations with ACE give accurate forecasts 1-3 hours ahead.

We need international coorporation and programs National Space Weather Program started in USA 1995 and in 2000 ”Living with a Star”. ESA initiated ”ESA Space Weather Program” 1997 1999. We in Lund are a member of the consortium led byAlcatel Space Industry. International LWS RWCs of ISES

We need nonlinear fast forecast methods Supervised neural network Recurrent neural network Unsupervised neural network

Workshops in Lund AI Applications in Solar-Terrestrial Physics (1993, 1997) Next workshop - An Extended ”Nordic GIC Meeting” 2001 October?

Updated in real-time and written in Java

Sun Stoplight Applet

Earth Stoplight Applet

Space Weather Vendors Exist already in e.g. USA and Sweden

Today’s Space Weather