GIFS-TIGGE project Richard Swinbank, and Young-Youn Park, with thanks to the GIFS-TIGGE working group, THORPEX IPO and other colleagues Presentation for Africa RC meeting, April 2012

TIGGE and GIFS TIGGE GIFS developments TIGGE archive TIGGE research Examples of products based on TIGGE data Building links with SWFDP

TIGGE project Since 2006, TIGGE has been collecting ensemble predictions from 10 of the leading global forecast centres. TIGGE data are made available after a 48-hour delay, to support research on probabilistic forecasting methods, predictability and dynamical processes. 50+ TIGGE articles published in scientific literature.

NB. Now includes statistics from CMA TIGGE Archive Usage NB. Now includes statistics from CMA

TIGGE Research Following the successful establishment of the TIGGE dataset, the main focus of the GIFS-TIGGE working group has shifted towards research on ensemble forecasting. Particular topics of interest include: a posteriori calibration of ensemble forecasts (bias correction, downscaling, etc.); combination of ensembles produced by multiple models; research on and development of probabilistic forecast products. TIGGE data is also invaluable as a resource for a wide range of research projects, for example: comparing different Ensemble prediction systems; research on dynamical processes and predictability. Currently, over 50 articles related to TIGGE have been published in the scientific literature.

Towards a Global Interactive Forecast System (GIFS) Our objective is to realise the benefits of THORPEX research by developing and evaluating probabilistic products. Focus on risks of high-impact weather events – unlikely but potentially catastrophic. First step: exchange of real-time tropical cyclone predictions using “Cyclone XML” format. Followed by development of products based on gridded forecasts of heavy precipitation & strong wind. Piers Buchanan, Met Office

Example Met Office products for a named storm MOGREPS-15: Ma-On, 12Z Fri 14th July 2011 Left hand plot: 24 ensemble tracks Middle plot: strike probability – probability that the storm will be within 75 miles within the next 15 days. Right hand plot: MOGREPS ensemble mean (blue), control (cyan), previous observations (red) and deterministic track (green)

TOMAS: MOGREPS-15 12Z North Atlantic forecast on Wednesday 27th October 2010.

Use of MOGREPS-15 products in SWFDDP

Flash floods/snow in South Africa (June 2011) + 8-day forecast Mio Matsueda 11

Steps to progress use of GIFS products in SWFDP Progress so far TC products based on CXML data; prototype products based on gridded TIGGE forecast data Provided documentation of prototype products GIFS-TIGGE WG co-chair attended recent SWFDP SG meeting Seek feedback from RSMCs coordinating SWFDP regional subprojects Future Develop real-time products for SWFDP based on preferred prototypes, e.g., Multi-model versions of TC products; near real-time versions of highest priority rainfall products. Supply products to SWFDP regional websites Provide training via SWFDP

The Weather component includes: GEOWOW (GEOSS interoperability for Weather, Ocean and Water) is a 3-year EU-funded FP7 project starting September 2011. The Weather component includes: improving access to TIGGE data at ECMWF. developing and demonstrating forecast products. Weather participants: ECMWF, Met Office, Météo-France, KIT Involve other TIGGE partners in planning development & demonstration of products in conjunction with SWFDP. GIFS-TIGGE 31 August - 2 September 2011

TIGGE website: http://tigge.ecmwf.int Summary Since October 2006, the TIGGE archive has been accumulating regular ensemble forecasts from leading global NWP centres. The TIGGE data is available for research after a 48-hour delay, and has been used for a wide range of scientific research studies. Various products have been developed to use the tropical cyclone forecast data exchanged using CXML, and, more recently, prototype gridded products from the TIGGE data set. The SWFDP regional centres will assess the prototype GIFS products for possible inclusion as real-time products on the SWFDP websites, and we will collaborate with them on implementation & evaluation. TIGGE website: http://tigge.ecmwf.int