Economics Presentation By Brian Ross, Stop Stansted Expansion

Local environmental impacts Climate change impacts Adverse economic impacts Economic benefits The Policy & Planning Balance Also, social impacts – positive and negative – but almost impossible to quantify

Economic Arguments – DfT User benefits – Consumer surplus theory, based on value of time for new and existing users and for foreign residents as well as UK residents Producer benefits – Profits for airlines and airports Government revenue – APD DfT methodology under review but presently includes: Less: Carbon costs and Capital costs: Net economic benefit No-one really understands DfT methodology Benefits accrued for 60 years post-completion Disregards HMT Green Book guidance Illogical, discredited, unconvincing However:

Economic Arguments – Industry Aviation industry emphasises: Jobs – but read Brendon Sewill*, Jeremy Birch and some basic economics about opportunity costs and efficient labour markets. Need for business connectivity – but UK business accounted for just 9% of UK air passengers in 2009 and are not price sensitive. Overseas tourists – but overseas tourists accounted for just 23% of air passengers in 2009 and are only slightly price sensitive, * Airport jobs: false hopes, cruel hoax, Sewill, Brendon, AEF, March 2009

Our Economic Arguments Jobs: One mans airport job is an eventual redundancy notice in the domestic tourism industry. Over 2 million jobs depend on UK tourism compared to 180,000 on aviation) UK plc: How does it benefit the British economy to help an Irish airline which buys American planes in order to transport millions of British people to spend their disposable income in other countries? International competitiveness: So why is Japan, an island trading nation like the UK but with twice our population and twice our GDP, able to compete so well internationally with so much less runway capacity than the UK?

So whos right? 100 economists will have > 100 different opinions Its not about winning a Nobel Prize for economic theory – its about winning hearts and minds Our arguments must aim to convince the media, politicians and other opinion formers, and the public We may need to be unashamedly tabloid in our approach

UK International Travel Deficit NB: Excludes deficit on air tickets (£1.9bn in 2009) £bn

Does the tourism deficit matter? Inward tourism = exports; outward tourism = imports; Balance of Payments must ultimately balance; Floating exchange rate – i.e. self correcting? No such thing as free lunch – ultimately either £ is devalued or interest rates rise – or both; Why not a Queens Award for Imports? When we import goods and services we are exporting jobs and investment - and vice versa

Outward vs Inward Tourism = Outward visits = Inward visits

UK Travel Deficit (£billion)

Price Elasticity of Demand UK Leisure = Foreign Leisure = Source – UK Air Passenger Demand and CO 2 Forecasts, DfT, Jan In other words, if air fares increase by 10% UK leisure demand will fall by 10% but foreign leisure demand will fall by only 2%. This effect is amplified by the fact that the UK leisure sector is almost three times bigger than the foreign leisure sector. Thus higher air fares (e.g. As a result of higher APD can have a very large dampening effect on outbound tourism and yet hardly affect inbound foreign tourist numbers.

Purpose of trip UK residents' visits abroad (000) Overseas residents' visits to the UK ('000) Holiday30,4587,685 Business5,6274,753 Visiting friends & relatives9,5927,203 Miscellaneous9802,439 Total46,65722,080 International Air Travel 2009 Source: Travel Trends 2009, ONS, Tables 2.07 and 3.07

Sterling Effective Exchange Rate Source: Bank of England: 2005=100.

Sector Share of passenger demand 2005 Elasticity of demand with respect to IncomeAir Fares UK Business 8%1.4- UK Leisure 29%1.5 UK Charter 16%0.4 Foreign Business 6%0.6- Foreign Leisure 11% International to International Interliners 11% Domestic 17% Overall 100% Long run price and income elasticities

Key Data Sources ONS Travel Trends, MQ6, Pink Book, Blue Book HMT Red Book, Green Book DfT Air traffic forecasts, SCAB spreadsheets CAA Airport statistics, Annual Passenger Survey